Man I can't predict inflation rates gl

Neither president would normally be able to influence inflation much on such a short timescale. And if they did do something drastic that could, the Fed would very likely act to counteract it.

(That includes actions that would make inflation fall faster - anything that could reliably do that on such a short timescale would probably be quite risky and unnecessarily risk overshoot and recession, and the Fed would not like that either).

And whilst the Fed might over-correct or under-correct in their response to whatever the government does, on expectation they'll correctly-correct. They're getting better at that. They under-corrected in the GFC and over-corrected (by less! The GFC taught a valuable lesson!) during COVID. And it's currently looking like they hit the sweet spot in their response to the inflationary crisis following COVID.

There is an incredible amount of cynicism about monetary policy and central banks, but all I see is them getting better at their job over time.

Therefore both these markets should be priced the same.

In any month or the annual average or ... ?

@ChristopherRandles The inflation rate published by the us bureau of labor published in 2025 will be used. I believe it will be the annual I inflation rate for all of 2025

Eddited meant 2025

@JamesF That would be the December YoY inflation, published in mid-January 2026.

@chrisjbillington Yeah believe so

Trump version: https://manifold.markets/JamesF/if-trump-wins-the-election-will-the

>If Biden wins the election will the inflation rate in 2025 bee below 2.5% (Current 3.1%)