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Neither president would normally be able to influence inflation much on such a short timescale. And if they did do something drastic that could, the Fed would very likely act to counteract it.
(That includes actions that would make inflation fall faster - anything that could reliably do that on such a short timescale would probably be quite risky and unnecessarily risk overshoot and recession, and the Fed would not like that either).
And whilst the Fed might over-correct or under-correct in their response to whatever the government does, on expectation they'll correctly-correct. They're getting better at that. They under-corrected in the GFC and over-corrected (by less! The GFC taught a valuable lesson!) during COVID. And it's currently looking like they hit the sweet spot in their response to the inflationary crisis following COVID.
There is an incredible amount of cynicism about monetary policy and central banks, but all I see is them getting better at their job over time.
Therefore both these markets should be priced the same.
@chrisjbillington A lot of inflation is about future expectations. If Trump significantly loosens monetary policy like he claims he will and increases tariffs inflation will definitely go up.
Ezra Klein:
"Trump has a bold, ambitious agenda to make prices much, much higher. He’s proposing a 10 percent tariff on imported goods, and a 60 percent tariff on products from China. He wants to deport huge numbers of immigrants. And he’s made it clear that he’d like to replace the Federal Reserve chair with someone more willing to take orders from him"
This could definitely affect inflation within a year if executed promptly. Project 2025 is explicitly meant to neutralize independent action by agencies like the Federal Reserve.
@ChristopherRandles The inflation rate published by the us bureau of labor published in 2025 will be used. I believe it will be the annual I inflation rate for all of 2025
Eddited meant 2025
