Tumbles Financial Complex (RIP)

Post-Collapse Markets:

Ṁ375

Will @Tumbles be more than 24 ___ late to pay back a loan?

87%

OpenAI models released to the public

85%

Fortnights

81%

Months

50%

New loans taken (since this market's creation, only counts loans created while a loan is due)

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Ṁ100

Will Jumbles 2.0 forgive at least 5% of the Tumbles debt?

Ṁ1.7k

Who will be the next Tumbles to tumble?

95%

Other

1.2%

0.8%

0.6%

Pre-Collapse Stuff for Posterity:

Ṁ100

Will Tumbles be late to pay back a loan today?

YES

Ṁ21k

Who will win poker at Manifest 2025?

100%99.0%

David Chee @SirSalty

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Statement regarding the current status of my account: https://manifold.markets/Tumbles/will-tumbles-ever-be-late-to-pay-ba#i16krm26kwl

Ṁ2k

Will Tumbles be late to pay back a loan?

YES

Ṁ1.2k

What is the main reason Tumbles will avoid being late to repay any loans? (before 2027)

100%99.2%

Tumbles is late to pay back a loan before 2027

0.0%

Favorable outcome from April 2025 Canadian election betting

0.1%

Favorable outcomes from future betting

0.0%

Still in a P2P loan debt spiral

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Ṁ100

Will Tumbles pay back any amount of his loans before Christmas?

YES

Ṁ100

Tumbles owes TWO MILLION mana to other users by month's end?

Manifold

Tumbles has lowest League profits this month in all of Bronze League?

Resolved YES. Check out the Tumbles Financial Complex! 💸

Ṁ1.3k

During which month will Tumbles be late to pay back a loan?

100%99.9%

June

0.0%

January

0.0%

February

0.0%

March

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Banks and Other Mana Services

🦝RISK Credit Report

Instantly get a credit risk score for any Manifold user.

Manifold

🦝RISK Recovery Insurance Service Kiosk

dashboard created by crowlsyong

Manifold

[See description] 🦝RISK Stock

[image]Dashboard | RISK Credit Score app | Payment Portal | IMF | Stock (defunct) NOTICE #3 - 26/04/2025 TL;DR Our company was so rich that this stock stopped allowing us to buy shares. As a result, we have shut it down and paid out all investors. We will be moving to a new system that empowers our shareholders much, much more than this stock ever could. Investors Please visit our Dashboard and search for "Investors" there. [image]

Fion's Loans

Ṁ0 bounty

Ṁ0

Ṁ100

The All Memeing Bank - will I lend more than 100k mana in 2025?

Ṁ100

Loans from Anonymous!

N/A

More Tumbles Financial Complex

Most recent Tumbles Financial Complex Shareholder's Report (November)

Ṁ1k

Will Tumbles DOUBLE YOUR MANA?

Ṁ800

If @Tumbles is late to pay back a loan, will Canada enter a recession? (2024)

100%99.2%

Tumbles is late, Canada does not enter a recession.

0.2%

Tumbles is never late, Canada enters a recession.

0.6%

Tumbles is never late, Canada does not enter a recession.

0.0%

Tumbles is late, Canada enters a recession.

Ṁ250

Will Tumbles be late to pay back a loan before 2026, and if so, when?

100%99.6%

June

0.0%

Tumbles is not late on a loan before 2026

0.0%

April

0.1%

May

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Ṁ1.6k

What will be true of Manifold's "loan" to Tumbles?

95%

Tumbles will quit Manifold before repaying the loan

98%

Tumbles will not pay it off in full before 2027

Resolved

Tumbles will not pay any of it off before 2026

Resolved

Tumbles will have to pay it off in some form, and will be late on a payment before 2026

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Ṁ100

Who will be the prime minister of Canada after the next election, and will Tumbles be late to pay back a loan?

100%99.0%

Other PM, Tumbles is late to pay back a loan

0.0%

Pierre Poilievre is PM, Tumbles is late to pay back a loan

0.0%

Pierre Poilievre is PM, Tumbles is NOT late to pay back a loan

1.0%

Other PM, Tumbles is NOT late to pay back a loan

Ṁ100

Will Tumbles succeed in restructuring or bailing out the Tumbles Financial Complex?

Ṁ280

When Tumbles pays his loans off, will his net worth be greater than his poker losses?

100%99.0%

Tumbles will not successfully pay off all of his loans (on time) 🪦

0.2%

Yes, his net worth will be greater 👑

0.8%

No, his net poker losses will be greater 💀

Other Adjacent Markets

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