Tumbles Financial Complex (RIP)

Statement regarding the current status of my account: https://manifold.markets/Tumbles/will-tumbles-ever-be-late-to-pay-ba#i16krm26kwl

Will Tumbles be late to pay back a loan?85% chance

1.2k

What is the main reason Tumbles will avoid being late to repay any loans? (before 2027)

83%

Tumbles is late to pay back a loan before 2027

10%

Tumbles reaches agreements with the creditors of most of his loans to defer payment, pay with alternative forms of consideration, or otherwise keep them in good standing until 2027

Tumbles sells goods/services/performances for a lot of mana

Extraordinary event at the hands of Manifold staff (e.g. something like the 1.4 million "loan")

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100

Will Tumbles pay back any amount of his loans before Christmas?YES

100

Tumbles owes TWO MILLION mana to other users by month's end?NO

Manifold

Tumbles has lowest League profits this month in all of Bronze League?

Resolved YES. Check out the Tumbles Financial Complex! 💸

1.3k

During which month will Tumbles be late to pay back a loan?

1.8%

January

1.7%

February

1.3%

March

1.5%

April

See 9 more answers

Banks and Other Mana Services

🦝RISK Credit Report

Instantly get a credit risk score for any Manifold user.

Manifold

🦝RISK Recovery Insurance Service Kiosk

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Manifold

[See description] 🦝RISK Stock

[image]Dashboard | RISK Credit Score app | Payment Portal | IMF | Stock (defunct) NOTICE #3 - 26/04/2025 TL;DR Our company was so rich that this stock stopped allowing us to buy shares. As a result, we have shut it down and paid out all investors. We will be moving to a new system that empowers our shareholders much, much more than this stock ever could. Investors Please visit our Dashboard and search for "Investors" there. [image]

Fion's LoansṀ1,010 bounty

Ṁ1k

100

The All Memeing Bank - will I lend more than 100k mana in 2025?24% chance

100

Loans from Anonymous!N/A

More Tumbles Financial Complex

Most recent Tumbles Financial Complex Shareholder's Report (November)

Will Tumbles DOUBLE YOUR MANA?3% chance

800

If @Tumbles is late to pay back a loan, will Canada enter a recession? (2024)

0.8%

Tumbles is never late, Canada enters a recession.

20%

Tumbles is never late, Canada does not enter a recession.

0.4%

Tumbles is late, Canada enters a recession.

79%

Tumbles is late, Canada does not enter a recession.

250

Will Tumbles be late to pay back a loan before 2026, and if so, when?

25%

Tumbles is not late on a loan before 2026

April

0.9%

May

26%

June

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1.6k

What will be true of Manifold's "loan" to Tumbles?

93%

Tumbles will not pay any of it off before 2026

32%

Tumbles will have to pay it off in some form, and will be late on a payment before 2026

Manifold will "loan" at least Ṁ1,000,000 more to Tumbles before 2026

Tumbles will have to pay it off in some form, with payments due before 2026, and will not be late on any payment before 2026

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100

Who will be the prime minister of Canada after the next election, and will Tumbles be late to pay back a loan?

Pierre Poilievre is PM, Tumbles is late to pay back a loan

83%

Other PM, Tumbles is late to pay back a loan

Pierre Poilievre is PM, Tumbles is NOT late to pay back a loan

17%

Other PM, Tumbles is NOT late to pay back a loan

100

Will Tumbles succeed in restructuring or bailing out the Tumbles Financial Complex?NO

280

When Tumbles pays his loans off, will his net worth be greater than his poker losses?

Yes, his net worth will be greater 👑

15%

No, his net poker losses will be greater 💀

85%

Tumbles will not successfully pay off all of his loans (on time) 🪦

Conditional on who wins the democratic nomination will tumbles ever be late to pay back a loan

0.1%

Biden wins the nomination tumbles is never late

0.1%

Biden wins the nomination tumbles is late

17%

Someone besides Biden wins the nomination tumbles is never late

83%

Someone besides Biden wins tumbles is late

Other Adjacent Markets

570

@Tumbles Meme Stock ($TMS)Ṁ313

Will another unofficial mana financial service/product ran by users be shut down by Manifold by EOY 2026?93% chance

100

Will Tumbles bask in the presence of Mira's divine intelligence before 2028?70% chance

295

Will Tumbles punch someone before Joe Biden dies?12% chance

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