US '24

Crystal

Who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

54%

Donald Trump

43%

Kamala Harris

1.1%

Joe Biden

0.4%

JD Vance

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Will Republicans take the majority in the US Senate in 2024?77% chance

Plus

Will the Democrats win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2024 elections?53% chance

If Trump becomes President, will he "Make America Great Again" by the midterms? [Gallup Polling > Obama]29% chance

Will the 2024 US presidential election be extremely close (within 100,000 votes for electors to the Electoral College)?50% chance

Plus

Biden vs Trump Polling Average - When will Biden retake the lead?

100%98%

Not before Election Day

0.0%

Before February 1st

0.1%

February

0.1%

March

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What will be the Electoral College margin in the 2024 US Presidential Election?

0.6%

D by 215+

1.1%

D by 155-214

2%

D by 105-154

10%

D by 65-104

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Who will win the U.S. 2024 Democratic presidential nomination?

98%

Kamala Harris

1%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

0.5%

A Candidate Not Listed Here

0.2%

Joe Biden

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Mini

If Donald Trump is elected, which of his campaign promises will be achieved?

81%

"lower taxes"

68%

"designate cartels as Foreign Terrorist Organizations"

59%

empower the President to impose reciprocal tariffs

59%

"order the Department of Defense to inflict maximum damage on cartel leadership and operations"

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How many Senate seats will Republicans control after the 2024 elections?

8%

48 or fewer

12%

49

17%

50

18%

51

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Colorado Supreme Court kicks Trump off the state's 2024 primary ballot for violating the U.S. Constitution

In a bombshell decision, Colorado's Supreme Court on Tuesday ruled that former President Donald Trump's candidacy in the state's primary next year is prohibited on constitutional grounds.

Will SCOTUS reverse the Colorado Supreme Court's decision to bar Trump from the ballot?YES

Will Nikki Haley drop out before the South Carolina primary?NO

Prize Market

Plus

Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for VP? (Vice President)

100%99.0%

J.D. Vance (Ohio Senator)

0.0%

Mike Pence

0.0%

Kari Lake (Senate Candidate in Arizona)

0.0%

Ron DeSantis (Florida Governor)

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Who will win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination? [Top 6 candidates, new market style]

100%99.0%

Donald Trump

0.1%

Ron DeSantis

0.0%

Tim Scott

0.4%

Nikki Haley

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Will the Supreme Court make any decision on the Trump Colorado ballot before March 2024?NO

Who will still be in the Republican primary on Super Tuesday (March 5, 2024)?

Resolved

YES

Donald Trump

Resolved

YES

Nikki Haley

Resolved

NO

Ron DeSantis

Resolved

NO

Vivek Ramaswamy

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Will the independent run of RFK Jr hurt Democrats more than Republicans?37% chance

Democratic congressman Dean Phillips launches primary challenge against Biden

Decision by little known Minnesota representative has led to criticism from many of his colleagues

Will a single third party candidate receive 2% or more of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?82% chance

Will RFK Jr. end up running as an Independent in 2024?YES