For simplicity, resolves to who wins the 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries as described on the Wikipedia page.
This question has a list of the current top 6 candidates according to https://electionbettingodds.com/, and resolves to "Someone else" if the winner is anyone else.
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@BenjaminIkuta If he died, maybe. But, if he was barred from US politics, which is also a possibility, I'm not sure he would anoint a successor to rule in his place.
@BenjaminIkuta Hot take: DeSantis dropping out and endorsing Trump increases his chances of being the nominee.
@becauseyoudo So, what's the play here, Trump is disqualified, but all potential DeSantis voters still vote Trump, leading to their votes being wasted, and Haley getting a few, but still the most, valid votes?
@BenjaminIkuta I have no idea but manifold thinks there's at least some chance that Trump will be disqualified. There are 5 other states dealing with active challenges that would effect the primary including Massachusetts. I really doubt these 14A challenges are going to stop unless there's a definitive pro-Trump decision from SCOTUS. But what would that even look like? They can delay and say he must be tried for insurrection to apply the disqualification clause but that would be a reason to expedite Trump's Jan 6th trial and he doesn't want that. Either way it gets messy.
@becauseyoudo Okay, thinking about this more, I guess maybe if Trump dies right before the election, there isn't time to get a replacement in, for practical reasons, and then Haley wins just because she's the only one still running? Idk the mechanics of the election well enough to know exactly how that would work.
@thepurplebull Trump arrested or for some other reason the RNC passes him over and Nimrata is still in the race.
@Daniel_MC imo current polling is a lagging indicator (or, at least, not a predictive indicator). It seems DeSantis' arc is already played out, and he doesn't really have much a path forwards even if Trump becomes ineligible. He has his fans, but it doesn't seem likely he could gather significantly more this late in the game.
Haley's potential support is more of an unknown, and I assume the market is priced based on this.