Will RFK Jr. end up running as an Independent in 2024?
187
1.2K
2.2K
Dec 1
79%
chance

This bet assumes Robert F Kennedy Jr loses the Democratic primary. The question is does he announce himself as an Independent candidate and is he on more than 5 states' ballots in the 2024 US Presidential election?

Get Ṁ1,000 play money
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What if he runs under LP?

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. qualifies for presidential ballot in Utah, the first state to grant him access

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/01/03/robert-kennedy-2024-utah-00133603

bought Ṁ10 of YES

The Kennedies are resourced financially and have the drive to do what it takes. As some of the elites in America, they feel entitled to be part of the race. As it stands, they are more on the democrats side but the democrats have plenty of candidates in waiting, as compared to the Republicans. Based on that, it is likely that Kennedy will stand as an independent.

predicts NO

It's weird that at this moment this market is higher (at 71%) than this linked one (at 62%), given that this market requires that he manage ballot access in at least six states and the other one doesn't have such a standard.