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I'm glad this market ended with a positive notification 😂

Seems to me like this can resolve now, any reason not to?

@ManifoldPolitics Can you make a version of this market for the Trump vs Harris polls?

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris

Or maybe it makes sense to wait until she's officially the nominee, idk.

Galaxy Brain Take: RCP will now do the opposite of their usual schtick and look for any opportunity to show Biden briefly ahead so that he stays in the race.

@Joshua probably people have asked this before, but it is not on the description: how does it resolve if Biden (or Trump) are not the candidate anymore?

Hmmmm, I suppose it might depend on how RCP handles it but I think the most likely outcome is that Biden or Trump being replaced would resolve as "not before election day".

The alternative would be that RCP still keeps updating the tracker for some reason with a smaller number of polls about if the matchup were still hypothetically happening, like how pollsters already do occasional hypothetical polls of Newsom vs Trump. I think resolving on hypothetical polls would not be in the spirit of the market, though.

That's probably a moot point. I can't imagine how Biden would be beating Trump in a hypothetical poll after he chooses to drop out.

And we are at +1.5% ahead of the debate tonight 📈

And here's Rasmussen with an outlier.

Always the case lmao

Thats what we call "Florida Math"

Currently +0.5% 👀

Currently +0.8%

@Joshua the description says “2 way” but the link goes to a 5-way headline… is there some other page that has 2 way results or what am I missing?

@Tyler31 you are misreading the link to the 5-way average as a statement that the 2-way is the 5-way.

@Joshua I made the same mistake - it's a little confusing on mobile.

@TimothyJohnson5c16 That’s super confusing. You convinced me to get a laptop out and it still took me a few minutes to understand.

It looks like Biden got a 2 to 3 point bump after the verdict, which is enough for him to take the lead, even if it fades eventually.

We've got a new version of this market on the official politics account using the generally superior 538 average:

Also a bunch more new 538 polling markets on the polling dashboard:

https://manifold.markets/news/political-polling

Note that August will be the Democratic convention.

Looks like April is a no barring anything wild happening. https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/28/politics/cnn-poll-trump-biden-matchup/index.html?Date=20240428&Profile=CNNPolitics&utm_content=1714306087&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter

@Jason1e41 I was just about to post that!

@Joshua I got my trade in first, too 😆

@Jason1e41 Their process for removing old polls still makes no sense to me 😂

@TimothyJohnson5c16 Vibes based poll aggregation from RCP.