Biden vs Trump Polling Average - When will Biden retake the lead? (Currently Trump +2.3%)
Nov 7
Not before Election Day
October 1st - Election Day, November 5th
Before February 1st

Average will be taken from RCP 2-way average.

Trump took the lead on September 11th, and has held it since.

This market resolves to the single earliest period of time in which Biden retakes the lead, or "Not before Election Day" if he does not. Resolves based on Pacific Time if there is ambiguity.

You can find more questions like this on the polling dashboard.

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bought Ṁ500 March NO

Can you resolve February?

sold Ṁ72 March YES

@WieDan Can't early resolve for linked multiple choice, but I bought it down a lot so people could sell out at 1%

@Joshua They should fix that

opened a Ṁ5,000 February NO at 1.0% order

@Joshua Come upvote the discord suggestion haha

I have a new machine and have neglected to install discord haven't been there for weeks lol

@WieDan Wise decision lol

somewhat related:

bought Ṁ200 Not before Election Day NO

The only thing I'm nervous about is if Biden drops out / dies... Maybe I'll put a small covering bet

Rasmussen with a +6 is going to make February a lot tougher

@ManifoldPolitics I believe HarrisX now has Trump +9

Outlier Quinnipiac poll is carrying hard

bought Ṁ250 March NO

@FoxKHTML Yup, and look at what HarrisX just posted:

That's Trump +9

I'm selling!

bought Ṁ50 September YES



bought Ṁ500 March NO

@FoxKHTML And QP down to + 4 now

bought Ṁ150 February YES

1.2 yesterday, 1.1 now.

Come take my mana!

@Joshua Incredible, at this rate, he'll be polling ahead by 25 points come Election Day, we need to put some big money on Biden winning the presidency.

bought Ṁ25 April YES

The race is tightening! Trump leads by 1.2, the closest this has been since January 10th. Trump is the lowest he's been since October 30th.

Now, it shouldn't be that surprising if Biden is about to get some bad polls after that news cycle about his age. But I wouldn't be shocked if Biden took the lead this month, with it being this close.

@Joshua Where’s this graph from?

@Joshua That's the RCP average 3 month view, linked in the description too.

@Joshua Thanks. I saw the comment in my feed and didn’t even bother to read the market lol.

@NGK Here i've updated the description with the most recent #s and snapshot as well. It's close! I think a lot of that is due to one very positive poll Biden had which could drop out of the average, but I think he could still peak above Trump before then depending on what polls come out soon!

@Joshua Trump is going down, Biden isn’t going up. But this is still hopeful.

bought Ṁ40 of February NO

Trump's J6 case has been dropped from court dockets. This will likely feed a narrative of "the insurrection case against trump is so weak that even the courts have dropped the trial date". I would expect a boost in Trump's polls this month.

Newsweek Article "Jack Smith's Trump Case Removed From Court Docket Raises Eyebrows"

@LukasDay Hmm just to play dem's advocate, weren't you saying in a comment below you thought that Trump's trial would boost his polls whenever it happened due to witch trial logic? So if we think his trial is delayed, we should expect him not to get that boost right?

@Joshua - I goofed. This was supposed to be a reply to Dan's comment. I'm not quite sure how to respond to your question, so I drew a rough picture. Hope that helps.

@LukasDay Economic sentiment is rapidly improving to potentially cancel it out. I have been surprised Biden's polls haven't gone up, but if he isn't improving now, he probably never does (given that the March rate cut is off the table, Reverse Repo liquidity drain ends in March, and the Red Sea situation will probably cause inflation to increase again and cause further easing).

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