Biden vs Trump Polling Average - When will Biden retake the lead? (RCP Currently Trump +2.4%)
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Nov 7
A third of the way into March, and both candidates are trending up. Trump is winning by 1.8 points at the moment. [image][image]
Now Trump +1.7 [image]
94%
Not before Election Day
2%
August
1.3%
September
1.1%
October 1st - Election Day, November 5th

Average will be taken from RCP 2-way average.

Trump took the lead on September 11th, and has held it since.

This market resolves to the month in which RCP is updated to show Biden in the lead, or else "Not before Election Day". Resolves based on Pacific Time if there is ambiguity. This is the date that RCP is updated, not the date the polling took place.

You can find more questions like this on the polling dashboard.

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bought Ṁ25 October 1st - Electi... YES

Galaxy Brain Take: RCP will now do the opposite of their usual schtick and look for any opportunity to show Biden briefly ahead so that he stays in the race.

@Joshua probably people have asked this before, but it is not on the description: how does it resolve if Biden (or Trump) are not the candidate anymore?

Hmmmm, I suppose it might depend on how RCP handles it but I think the most likely outcome is that Biden or Trump being replaced would resolve as "not before election day".

The alternative would be that RCP still keeps updating the tracker for some reason with a smaller number of polls about if the matchup were still hypothetically happening, like how pollsters already do occasional hypothetical polls of Newsom vs Trump. I think resolving on hypothetical polls would not be in the spirit of the market, though.

That's probably a moot point. I can't imagine how Biden would be beating Trump in a hypothetical poll after he chooses to drop out.

And we are at +1.5% ahead of the debate tonight 📈

And here's Rasmussen with an outlier.

Always the case lmao

Thats what we call "Florida Math"

Currently +0.5% 👀

bought Ṁ350 June NO

Currently +0.8%

@Joshua the description says “2 way” but the link goes to a 5-way headline… is there some other page that has 2 way results or what am I missing?

@Tyler31 you are misreading the link to the 5-way average as a statement that the 2-way is the 5-way.

@Joshua I made the same mistake - it's a little confusing on mobile.

@TimothyJohnson5c16 That’s super confusing. You convinced me to get a laptop out and it still took me a few minutes to understand.

bought Ṁ250 June YES

It looks like Biden got a 2 to 3 point bump after the verdict, which is enough for him to take the lead, even if it fades eventually.

reposted

We've got a new version of this market on the official politics account using the generally superior 538 average:

Also a bunch more new 538 polling markets on the polling dashboard:

https://manifold.markets/news/political-polling

Note that August will be the Democratic convention.

bought Ṁ1,000 April NO

@Jason1e41 I was just about to post that!

@Joshua I got my trade in first, too 😆

sold Ṁ51 April YES

@Jason1e41 Their process for removing old polls still makes no sense to me 😂

@TimothyJohnson5c16 Vibes based poll aggregation from RCP.

Morning Consult poll added, average now Trump +0.2.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden

@Kolyin We’re due for a qpac poll as well

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