Quinnipiac added (tie), back to Trump 0.3.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden

Morning Consult poll added, average now Trump +0.2.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden

@Kolyin We’re due for a qpac poll as well

With the NBC poll Trump’s lead could survive the last 3 polls dropping off.

@riverwalk3 Not anymore:

@TimothyJohnson5c16 Yeah I sold my NO off

Is there a reason RCP didn’t add the latest Morning Consult poll or is RGP just randomly selecting which to add and which to ignore based on vibes.

Now +0.4:

@TimothyJohnson5c16 Still enough for Biden to take the lead if the last 3 drop off.

@riverwalk3 Yeah, do you know what exactly the rule is for when those will drop off?

@TimothyJohnson5c16 Not sure, seems like RCP wants to keep Trump ahead. They might drop off the last 4 at a time.

new NYT/Siena poll has them one point apart.

+0.2

@Joshua Ready the Dark Brandon memes

Now +0.6:

+0.3

Realistically, Biden needs to win nationally by 2pp+ to win the electoral college. My prediction is that he’ll win the popular vote pretty easily, but the swing states will be extremely close, decided by historically thin margins.

@FoxKHTML Can't get much closer than Florida in 2000. Imagine the nightmare if it actually does come down to that few votes.

@PlasmaBallin I mean I think it will be very close in several states. GA, AZ, and MI most likely

@FoxKHTML I agree that all the states will be close, just not as close as Florida in 2000. Even if your expectation value in some states is one candidate winning by a few hundred votes, the confidence interval on that should be so large that the chance of it actually being that close is very small.

Trump is looking the better than ever, svelte and healthy ready for the fight in the colloquium with Kooky Joe!

@Mirek "Better than ever" is really a strange thing to say about a guy nearing his 80s. The guy was almost hansom in his 20s and 30s. He had a sexy swagger. He stomps around now. He's has lost a lot of weight and doesn't look as puffy as he did a couple of years but "better than ever" is a tough sell.

@Mirek Trump odds have improved in the last week oil prices going up, bridge collapsing, and world likely going into chaos, but Biden is likely to make further short term gains due to a disparity in ad spending. Trump is catching up quickly in fundraising, but he has not started running many ads yet.

New average is 1.1 with Rasmussen:

Rasmussen is here to crush everyone's dreams.

Trump +8 over Biden, will probably be added to RCP soon.

@DanMan314 Classic

@Joshua Doesn't necessarily mean it won't happen this month, plenty of time left in April. But this poll will basically have to age out before it can happen imo.