Around the time of the election, I will attempt to look at polls in the last month which both include and exclude him. If the D minus R margin is better in polls without RFK, this will resolve YES. If it is better in polls with RFK, this will resolve NO. In the event that it is genuinely too close to call (say, margin changes <0.3%) or too low of a sample (say, <5 polls) this will resolve N/A.
If he doesn't run as independent or doesn't last the entire race, also resolves N/A.
In the event of significant controversy regarding any of these conditions, I will contact whatever trustworthy-ish users I can and resolve according to their recommendations.
Related questions
interesting pledge calling out Biden
https://twitter.com/ChristianM_74/status/1785750045163245589
@SemioticRivalry A good reason is that it's been traded for months by over a hundred people with that condition in place. But maybe you could resolve 50-50 if the too-close-to-call outcome happens, if nobody who has traded already objects to changing it to that.
@SemioticRivalry We might get actual data of second choice preferences from Maine ranked choice voting.
@SemioticRivalry I think N/A is better, it would be a mess if this winds up hinging on something like whether specific polls are high quality enough to include.
Another poll showing Kennedy takes more from Biden than Trump,
Biden lags behind Trump by 4 percentage points, 47% to 43%, on a hypothetical ballot with only those two candidates. Trump’s lead expands to 6 points, 37% to 31%, when five potential third-party and independent candidates are added to the mix. They take a combined 17% support, with Democrat-turned-independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. drawing the most, at 8%.
-WSJ
The market is underrating the probability Kennedy hurts Biden more than Trump. First, recent polls actually show Biden's margin is worse with Kennedy than in two-way race with Trump. Second, Kennedy may have some appeal among younger and other low-information groups, both demographics that skew D more than R. Too much analysis is focused on ideology, where Kennedy is obviously out of touch with the mainstream D, but I expect that if he will pick up votes he takes from swing voters who don't care much about ideology. I'm not saying the price should be 60 or 70 but 25 is too low.
very interesting though. however, some analyst believes his candidacy could hurt the democrats more than the republicans as he could draw away some progressive and anti _establishment voters who are unhappy or dissatisfied with the Biden administration policies. others are of the view that his candidacy could hurt the republicans, as he could appeal to some conservative and libertarian voters who are cautious of the of the trump authoritarian and populist style of Government. His controversial views on vaccines could draw voters from both parties, making him a marginal figure in the race. But, Ultimately, the impact of his independent run will depend on many factors, such as the state of the economy, the pandemic, the media coverage, and the public opinion which i believe would not be in his Favour.
A poll came out. https://twitter.com/InsightForecast/status/1714390932940861831
Biden went from +3 to +7 w/ RFK Jr.
@NathanpmYoung credit in what sense? just my manifold username I guess, I don't have anything to advertise
