Will the independent run of RFK Jr hurt Democrats more than Republicans?
Basic
250
25k
Nov 11
45%
chance

Around the time of the election, I will attempt to look at polls in the last month which both include and exclude him. If the D minus R margin is better in polls without RFK, this will resolve YES. If it is better in polls with RFK, this will resolve NO. In the event that it is genuinely too close to call (say, margin changes <0.3%) or too low of a sample (say, <5 polls) this will resolve N/A.

If he doesn't run as independent or doesn't last the entire race, also resolves N/A.

In the event of significant controversy regarding any of these conditions, I will contact whatever trustworthy-ish users I can and resolve according to their recommendations.

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Two questions whether this market is the same as Insight Prediction:

  1. Are you using RealClearPolitics or what polls?

  2. How are polls that consider Biden, Trump, RFK Jr, and other candidates considered?

Polls that include West, Stein, and potentially a libertarian candidate will likely have Biden lower.

@CharlieBauer I planned on using this polling average but I didn't want to make any hard commitments because e.g. candidates drop out, urls change, etc

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy-vs-west-vs-stein

bought Ṁ200 YES

@SemioticRivalry I agree that makes the most sense. It is different from a three-way poll, but that’s unlikely to be polled. And it’s most likely that the libertarian party will announce a candidate and they will be included in RCP as well.

bought Ṁ50 YES

FYI, we have a real money market here, w/ slightly different rules (no <0.3% rule). https://insightprediction.com/m/243612/will-rfk-jr-harm-democrats

@DouglasCampbell slightly different rules, vastly different odds.

bought Ṁ100 YES
sold Ṁ240 YES

I'm not super happy with the N/A conditions on this market. i would like to remove it and resolve the question to No or Yes regardless of how small the margin or number of polls are. If anyone has any good reasons why I shouldn't do this, please reply and I'll consider them.

@SemioticRivalry A good reason is that it's been traded for months by over a hundred people with that condition in place. But maybe you could resolve 50-50 if the too-close-to-call outcome happens, if nobody who has traded already objects to changing it to that.

50/50 is worse

@SemioticRivalry We might get actual data of second choice preferences from Maine ranked choice voting.

opened a Ṁ3,000 YES at 45% order

@SemioticRivalry I think N/A is better, it would be a mess if this winds up hinging on something like whether specific polls are high quality enough to include.

predicts YES

Another poll showing Kennedy takes more from Biden than Trump,

Biden lags behind Trump by 4 percentage points, 47% to 43%, on a hypothetical ballot with only those two candidates. Trump’s lead expands to 6 points, 37% to 31%, when five potential third-party and independent candidates are added to the mix. They take a combined 17% support, with Democrat-turned-independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. drawing the most, at 8%.

-WSJ

The market is underrating the probability Kennedy hurts Biden more than Trump. First, recent polls actually show Biden's margin is worse with Kennedy than in two-way race with Trump. Second, Kennedy may have some appeal among younger and other low-information groups, both demographics that skew D more than R. Too much analysis is focused on ideology, where Kennedy is obviously out of touch with the mainstream D, but I expect that if he will pick up votes he takes from swing voters who don't care much about ideology. I'm not saying the price should be 60 or 70 but 25 is too low.

very interesting though. however, some analyst believes his candidacy could hurt the democrats more than the republicans as he could draw away some progressive and anti _establishment voters who are unhappy or dissatisfied with the Biden administration policies. others are of the view that his candidacy could hurt the republicans, as he could appeal to some conservative and libertarian voters who are cautious of the of the trump authoritarian and populist style of Government. His controversial views on vaccines could draw voters from both parties, making him a marginal figure in the race. But, Ultimately, the impact of his independent run will depend on many factors, such as the state of the economy, the pandemic, the media coverage, and the public opinion which i believe would not be in his Favour.

A poll came out. https://twitter.com/InsightForecast/status/1714390932940861831

Biden went from +3 to +7 w/ RFK Jr.

predicts NO

35%, interesting. We're a bit lower now on Insight but I haven't done my homework yet on this one.

How do you want me to credit you if I try and get this on a prediction market(s)?

predicts YES

@NathanpmYoung credit in what sense? just my manifold username I guess, I don't have anything to advertise

@SemioticRivalry You wrote the question it's a good question, you deserve credit

predicts YES

@NathanpmYoung Thanks :)

@NathanpmYoung Yeah, we'll put up a version of this question on Insight Prediction

predicts YES
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