Around the time of the election, I will attempt to look at polls in the last month which both include and exclude him. If the D minus R margin is better in polls without RFK, this will resolve YES. If it is better in polls with RFK, this will resolve NO. In the event that it is genuinely too close to call (say, margin changes <0.3%) or too low of a sample (say, <5 polls) this will resolve N/A.
If he doesn't run as independent or doesn't last the entire race, also resolves N/A.
In the event of significant controversy regarding any of these conditions, I will contact whatever trustworthy-ish users I can and resolve according to their recommendations.
1,000
3.00https://x.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1821608329380245948
Joe Rogan announced he supports RFK Jr over Trump: “he is the only one that makes sense to me.”
https://x.com/IAPolls2022/status/1809215613417472364
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2024/668471ab99503bfba4fb9dfc_HarrisX_Post-Debate_Poll_2_(1).pdf
democraft column at 15% opposed to republican, seems "YES" energy
@CharlieBauer I planned on using this polling average but I didn't want to make any hard commitments because e.g. candidates drop out, urls change, etc
@SemioticRivalry I agree that makes the most sense. It is different from a three-way poll, but that’s unlikely to be polled. And it’s most likely that the libertarian party will announce a candidate and they will be included in RCP as well.
FYI, we have a real money market here, w/ slightly different rules (no <0.3% rule). https://insightprediction.com/m/243612/will-rfk-jr-harm-democrats
interesting pledge calling out Biden
https://twitter.com/ChristianM_74/status/1785750045163245589
@SemioticRivalry A good reason is that it's been traded for months by over a hundred people with that condition in place. But maybe you could resolve 50-50 if the too-close-to-call outcome happens, if nobody who has traded already objects to changing it to that.
@SemioticRivalry We might get actual data of second choice preferences from Maine ranked choice voting.
@SemioticRivalry I think N/A is better, it would be a mess if this winds up hinging on something like whether specific polls are high quality enough to include.
Another poll showing Kennedy takes more from Biden than Trump,
Biden lags behind Trump by 4 percentage points, 47% to 43%, on a hypothetical ballot with only those two candidates. Trump’s lead expands to 6 points, 37% to 31%, when five potential third-party and independent candidates are added to the mix. They take a combined 17% support, with Democrat-turned-independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. drawing the most, at 8%.
-WSJ