Will Nikki Haley drop out before the South Carolina primary?
resolved Feb 24

Resolves YES if Nikki Haley announces that she is dropping out/suspending her presidential campaign before voting starts (7 AM ET) in the South Carolina Republican Presidential primary. Otherwise NO.

The 2024 South Carolina Republican presidential primary is scheduled to be held on February 24, 2024.

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@jack can you please resolve? Thanks!


Haley runs in an uncontested Nevada primary, still loses to the "none of the above" option. Current vote tally is 62% to 30%. Ouch.

predicted NO


Nikki Haley’s campaign says they’ve received an over 200% increase in email traffic from supporters asking the candidate to stay in the race following former president Donald Trump’s primary victory in New Hampshire.

@Gabrielle this link looks like information but has no information value. Assuming it's literally true even, "we got some emails" isn't a robust indicator of anything. Since she hadn't lost anything yet until 2 weeks ago, this 200% jump could be from 1 dozen emails to 3 dozen. Plus if emails saying "don't drop out" did indicate anything, it would be that she looks likely to drop out.

predicted NO

@ClubmasterTransparent The article did give specific numbers

A campaign spokesperson told Fox News Digital that, prior to New Hampshire, they were getting an average of A campaign spokesperson told Fox News Digital that, prior to New Hampshire, they were getting an average of 300-350 emails per day to info@nikkihaley.com, a generic email address for the Haley campaign. 

Last Wednesday, that number increased to thousands daily, between a roughly 185% to 233% increase, depending on the day. 

In the last six days, the campaign has received more than 6,000 emails total with messages supporting the former South Carolina governor and saying things like, "You’re the real Republicans’ only chance to be a normal political leader!" and "please do not quit!"

You’re correct that emails saying “Don’t drop out” don’t actually keep her from dropping out, but I don’t think Haley’s campaign would be publicizing this if she was planning on dropping out soon.

@ClubmasterTransparent Thanks for the update, that makes more sense.

bought Ṁ69 of NO

She’d be more likely to go to heaven than admit defeat in the next month

@thepurplebull She'll have to admit defeat at some point. Really it's just the timing that's in question.

she doin so well, I tink not