Who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Joe Biden
Donald Trump

Resolves to the person who wins the majority of votes for US President in the Electoral College, or selected by Congress following the contingency procedure in the Twelfth Amendment.

Resolves provisionally if both the Associated Press projects a winner and the losing major party candidate concedes.

How "Other" works: I will add more top candidates to this question. If you bet on "Other" that is the same as betting on all candidates that are added after your bet.

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Donald Trump has been crowned as the publics Glizzy GOAT. Tread carefully Biden predictors…

@Jony As was prophesied years ago

What are the best counterarguments for President Biden losing if rates remain high going into November (due to sticky inflation)?

Most recent CPI print makes me wonder if such a scenario is more likely than it seems.


Big news today: Arizona appears to be banning nearly all abortion, and it might be on the ballot in November.

Many credit Dem's surprisingly strong midterm performance in 2022 to a huge backlash to the overturning of Roe V Wade.

So this could be great news for Biden in Arizona.

We've got markets for AZ specifically here:

NYT Article:

Arizona’s highest court on Tuesday upheld an 1864 law that bans nearly all abortions, a decision that could have far-reaching consequences for women’s health care and election-year politics in a critical battleground state.

The Arizona Supreme Court said that because the federal right to abortion in Roe v. Wade had been overturned, there was no federal or state law preventing Arizona from enforcing a near-total ban on abortions that had sat dormant for decades.

The 1864 law, the court said in a 4-2 decision, “is now enforceable.” But the court also put its ruling on hold for the moment, and sent the case back to a lower court to hear additional arguments.

Democrats, who seized on abortion to win campaigns for governor and attorney general in midterm elections two years ago, condemned the ruling and said it would galvanize their supporters to push for a state constitutional right to abortion as a ballot initiative in this November’s elections.

Does Trump saying no to national abortion restrictions help his chances of election? Hurt them?

On one hand it might bring over independent voters, but a lot of established conservatives already disagree with him on it

@thepurplebull I think he just wants to talk about abortion as little as possible, so claiming it's a state issue is an attempt to dodge any further discussion of it.

Trump knows that if the election turns into a referendum on abortion, he will lose badly. But most voters care more about the economy or immigration than about abortion, and he thinks he can win on those issues.

@thepurplebull persuasion> turnout in almost all cases. Abortion is basically Biden's only good issue, if Trump can make himself look sensible on it Biden is probably screwed.

@SemioticRivalry Imo Biden’s best issues are abortion, “democracy,” and Social Security/Medicare. So expect a full court press on all 3. Curious how Trump will respond to the SSN/MC stuff.

bought Ṁ300 Donald Trump YES

@MarkHamill Trump's alsop said he won't reduce SS/Medicare. Biden's running out of good issues and his inability to break with the left of his party is costing him, While Trump's showing much more ability to break with the unpopular extremists on his side of the fence.

It seems that the conflict in Israel will expand to the North. How badly will this affect Biden's chances?

@GGckr Probably not that much either way, US voters mostly don't care about foreigners dying. There isn't much policy difference between Biden and Trump on this, and what difference there is will attract some voters and repel others.

@MartinRandall Michigan has a significant Muslim population and it will effect their turnout probably.

@MartinRandall I agree, however, if the US starts to get involved in this conflict (besides Palestine), it will be seen as another failure of foreign policy. The last time this happened, Biden saw his approval rating nose-dive. It's also worth noting that this gives ammunition to his opponent, which can claim that Biden is trying to start another war to win his re-election (which is not true, but many people are already claiming this even before anything has happened).

This is, of course, just my interpretation of what may happen, which is why I'm inquiring here.

@GGckr Hard to say about how it'll be perceived (and people don't really vote based on foreign policy anyway). But Biden's being extremely conciliatory to both Russia and Iran in the hope of avoiding a spike in gas prices, which isn't a good look (although it might be the good political choice, voters really don't like high gas prices).

What happened? Why are my limit orders getting filled

@AndrewG The jobs report today exceeded expectations!

@ManifoldPolitics Biden is taking credit:

And real money markets are moving too:

When comparing Silver's POTUS approval average to GEM's, remember some pretty substantial methodological differences are probably skewing Biden's approval a little lower than it would be under Silver's old average. For example, GEM's change to the house effect adjustments in November lowered his original average by 0.6%. He also doesn't weight for quality (yet, but this update is supposedly in the works): only sample size and recency.

Your periodical reminder that we have option markets for the election.

Here's a very simple way to think about the election: When an incumbent runs, it's typically a referendum on them, so just use their job approval to predict their share of the vote.

Even though we're very early, March Job Approval still has an r^2 of 0.63 in the last ten elections where an incumbent ran, going back to LBJ.

Plugging in Biden's current 538 rating of 39.2% says that Biden loses the popular vote by 6% and has a 77% chance of losing the popular vote.

Would I bet on Biden losing by 6 points? No, but I do think this is a useful anchor for the race, and fundamentals models performed pretty well in 2020.

@SemioticRivalry I think approval and favorability are both good to look at. However, I think that looking at everything back to LBJ is a bad idea, and the fact that it tells you Biden has a 77% chance to lose seems obviously wrong to me.

My instinct is to throw out everything from before the last few cycles. I think we're in a very unique political moment and I don't trust anything from the pre-trump era, or maybe even the pre-covid era, to hold up too much now. I'd rather overanalyze everything more recently, because even though it's a much smaller sample it's a lot closer to the current situation where we literally have a rematch.

Let's post some graphs for the people!

Trump approval in 2017-2020:

Trump Favorability in 2020-2024:

Biden Favorability, 2018-2024:

When I look at these graphs, I find the biden one striking. Biden was at 51.5% in March of 2019. Then he fell to 41.3% by Feb of 2020, when the primary was tense and the democrats were in full circular firing squad mode.

But he got the nomination, the party got behind him, and he was back to 50% in November 2020.

YouGov then shows a peak of 54.3% in March of 2021, and then a descent after that as the honeymoon wears off and he gets blamed for inflation.

By Summer of 2022 he's at 41.5%. Everyone expects a red wave. And yet... his numbers start rising! Roe is overturned, dems get fired up! Biden gets to 45.9% by election day, and Dems pull off a shockingly good midterm.

He got to 48% in April 2023, and then it's been mostly downhill since then. Right now YouGov has him at a local minimum of 42.

What all this tells me is that people's opinions on Biden can move around a lot, and that he was less liked in Feb of 2020 than he is now. A lot of people really hate that he's the guy we're putting up against Trump. But I think a lot of people are still going to go out and vote for him. So I'm buying more Biden right now.

However, right now the whole commentariat is in an irrational wave of biden optimism so I'm trying to take the outside view and not buy too much, because I could be part of that irrational wave.

Maybe in a week I'll dismiss this post as brief lapse of sanity and go back to buying Trump shares.

@Joshua I think the relationship between approval and support has changed. The progressive (ie Bernie) part of the party has grown, and I think a lot of them would say they don't approve of Biden, but will absolutely vote for him where it matters against someone like Trump.

Same idea applies to the Trump side of the Republican party.

So I don't ever expect to see approval ratings as high as in the past, but there's less change when it comes to votes.

@robm Totally agreed. I think the generic congressional ballot might be the best thing to watch. And Dems just took the lead there for the first time in a while...

@Joshua It makes plenty sense to me that Biden's ratings fluctuated massively during the 2020 campaign, he was in a massively contentious primary. He's in a totally uncompetitive primary now, the entire party is behind him, and yet he hasn't touched 44% since 2021 (in the average). I think after 3 years of a presidency, people have pretty strong opinions that aren't likely to fluctuate nearly as much as in 2020, when he was basically a walking talking generic Dem. Now, people have very strong opinions about his specific performance on immigration, inflation, etc which aren't as likely to change. Biden's "approvers" are much softer than his "disapprovers", in the Fox poll, 79% of the people who disapprove do so strongly, while only 49% of those who approve do it strongly. In YouGov, it's 78% to 39%. In Quinnipiac, it's 78% to 51%. I'd expect his ratings to go up a couple points as the campaign gains more salience but I'd be fairly surprised if he got above 45% on election day which is about the point when I'd expect the race to be a tossup. Here are some crux markets if you'd like to bet.

@SemioticRivalry Yes, this is also why in Likely Voters polls Trump preforms much better than in in RV. Enthusiasm is low and this influences turnout. ofc LV polls don't have great predictive value this far out, but it's also not 0.