Resolves to the person who wins the majority of votes for US President in the Electoral College, or selected by Congress following the contingency procedure in the Twelfth Amendment.
Resolves provisionally if both the Associated Press projects a winner and the losing major party candidate concedes.
How "Other" works: I will add more top candidates to this question. If you bet on "Other" that is the same as betting on all candidates that are added after your bet.
Related questions
Donald Trump has been crowned as the publics Glizzy GOAT. Tread carefully Biden predictors…
@elf
- Abortion and Democracy (dems have the votes, it's a matter of turn out)
- Trump being a convicted felon
- Weather in election day (it snowed in nevada in one of these cycles and it impacted republicans, who do much less mail in voting)
- 3% inflation is much different than 7% inflation. Votes feel the change in the price level, not YoY inflation. And they'll still be in the process of feeling less the price level step. Below I projected until Oct/24 assuming inflation in the current 4% rate (seems elevated)
Arizona’s highest court on Tuesday upheld an 1864 law that bans nearly all abortions, a decision that could have far-reaching consequences for women’s health care and election-year politics in a critical battleground state.
The Arizona Supreme Court said that because the federal right to abortion in Roe v. Wade had been overturned, there was no federal or state law preventing Arizona from enforcing a near-total ban on abortions that had sat dormant for decades.
The 1864 law, the court said in a 4-2 decision, “is now enforceable.” But the court also put its ruling on hold for the moment, and sent the case back to a lower court to hear additional arguments.
Democrats, who seized on abortion to win campaigns for governor and attorney general in midterm elections two years ago, condemned the ruling and said it would galvanize their supporters to push for a state constitutional right to abortion as a ballot initiative in this November’s elections.
Does Trump saying no to national abortion restrictions help his chances of election? Hurt them?
On one hand it might bring over independent voters, but a lot of established conservatives already disagree with him on it
@thepurplebull I think he just wants to talk about abortion as little as possible, so claiming it's a state issue is an attempt to dodge any further discussion of it.
Trump knows that if the election turns into a referendum on abortion, he will lose badly. But most voters care more about the economy or immigration than about abortion, and he thinks he can win on those issues.
@thepurplebull persuasion> turnout in almost all cases. Abortion is basically Biden's only good issue, if Trump can make himself look sensible on it Biden is probably screwed.
@SemioticRivalry Imo Biden’s best issues are abortion, “democracy,” and Social Security/Medicare. So expect a full court press on all 3. Curious how Trump will respond to the SSN/MC stuff.
@MarkHamill Trump's alsop said he won't reduce SS/Medicare. Biden's running out of good issues and his inability to break with the left of his party is costing him, While Trump's showing much more ability to break with the unpopular extremists on his side of the fence.
@GGckr Probably not that much either way, US voters mostly don't care about foreigners dying. There isn't much policy difference between Biden and Trump on this, and what difference there is will attract some voters and repel others.
@MartinRandall Michigan has a significant Muslim population and it will effect their turnout probably.
@MartinRandall I agree, however, if the US starts to get involved in this conflict (besides Palestine), it will be seen as another failure of foreign policy. The last time this happened, Biden saw his approval rating nose-dive. It's also worth noting that this gives ammunition to his opponent, which can claim that Biden is trying to start another war to win his re-election (which is not true, but many people are already claiming this even before anything has happened).
This is, of course, just my interpretation of what may happen, which is why I'm inquiring here.
@GGckr Hard to say about how it'll be perceived (and people don't really vote based on foreign policy anyway). But Biden's being extremely conciliatory to both Russia and Iran in the hope of avoiding a spike in gas prices, which isn't a good look (although it might be the good political choice, voters really don't like high gas prices).
