Who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
2.6k
60k
210k
2025
50%
Donald Trump
47%
Joe Biden

Resolves to the person who wins the majority of votes for US President in the Electoral College, or selected by Congress following the contingency procedure in the Twelfth Amendment.

Resolves provisionally if both the Associated Press projects a winner and the losing major party candidate concedes.

How "Other" works: I will add more top candidates to this question. If you bet on "Other" that is the same as betting on all candidates that are added after your bet.

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Where is cancelled?

@Carlosab83 if you want to sell your shares, the button is there:

@Carlosab83 You could bet on "other", probably that's what the market would resolve to if the election didn't happen for whatever reason.

bought Ṁ50 Donald Trump YES

@Joshua Yes I mean canceled elections.
Thank you.

I really hope Biden wins this election.

@AndrewCrosse You can hedge by betting against him, so that if he doesn't you at least get some mana as a consolation prize!

@Joshua makes sense but I think he will win.

@Joshua

Don't hedge. Go with your conviction.

bought Ṁ25 Gavin Newsom YES

Alright @traders , there's a lot of polls coming out and Trump's criminal trial may be coming to an end soon. A lot of possibility for big shifts here, so we're adding a big subsidy to help encourage price discovery. Enjoy the free mana, if you're right!

And we've got more markets for VP, Senate, etc on the politics page of course.

Let's look at some other numbers for comparison!

RCP Average:


538 Average:


Polymarket Odds:

Election Betting Odds:

Metaculus Odds:


For my part, I think we're heading towards another news cycle like we saw after the initial article about his age. There was a hot minute where Ezra Keline was suggesting a contested convention was the best way to beat Trump, but then Biden did well at the SOTU and Dems calmed down a bit.

But I see that panic rising again. There's hope that Trump getting convicted will drop his numbers, and I do think he'll be convicted! But he lost his civil cases as well, and that didn't hurt him that much. Will this be that much different just because it's a misdemeanor in service of another crime which technically makes it a felony? I don't really think so.

I think the conviction hits, makes a splash for a week, and then Teflon Don walks it off and we're back where we started: Dems questioning whether Biden should even be the nominee if he's not the person with the best chance of winning.

@Joshua It's really disturbing that Trump is doing so well after all that he's done.

@Joshua I don't think its fair to consider Polymarket as an odds maker, when one guy one there has essentially all the Trump "Yes" shares.

@ManifoldPolitics Question about how this works. If we win, we're given more Mana than we otherwise would've got?

@Paulith I don't think that's quite the right way to think about it! It's relevant not just who has a lot of Trump shares, but also how many people aren't buying more biden shares or selling their trump shares to the guy who wants to buy a bunch! Prediction markets are still efficient even with whales.

@Kraalnaxx Subsidy mana is added to the automated market maker, which you can think of as a stupid robot who will trade with you when you currently don't have a human counterparty for your bet.

The dumb robot now has a lot more mana, so it's easier to profit here if you have an edge because you can win more mana from the dumb robot.

@Kraalnaxx The other big thing about subsidy is it means you can back out much more easily if you need the mana for something else. When a market isn't very subsidized, it's hard to sell your position for what it's actually worth. But if the automate market maker has enough mana, it will always buy your position from you so you can take your short term profits after the market moves and go invest them elsewhere.

@ManifoldPolitics without loans cash in November seems like forever to get too invested 😂

@egroj Personally I think 538 will soon come out with a model saying Trump is decently more than 50% likely to win, and then all these markets will move up to match that because people trust 538 a lot. If that happens, it should be easy to sell shares bought now for a profit well before november.

Unless, of course, Biden turns it around. Which could still happen! I think it'll depend a lot where RFK Jr voters go, if anywhere.

opened a Ṁ3,000 Joe Biden NO at 49% order

Placed 3000M NO on Joe Biden at 49%, any takers?

Why do prediction markets seem more bullish on Biden than most of the news sources I read? I'm sure there must be a good reason, but the polls currently don't favor Biden, and I doubt perceptions of the economy are going to change much in the next 6 months. Is the bet that the trials will hurt Trump? That Biden still has room to consolidate his base?

(Serious question, I'm not just arguing that Biden is doomed)

@WilliamDewey Manifold is left-biased. Other prediction markets are not as bullish on Biden.

Metaculus:

Polymarket:

https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024?tid=1715948026766

@WilliamDewey I think it's both of those things, plus the fact that it's still too far from the election to take polls at face value, and that RFK Jr. will likely lose support as we get closer to the election, as third-party candidates tend to, and will bleed support to Biden. It's worth noting that most polls don't have either candidate above 50% because there are too many undecided voters. I think if the polls still show Trump winning by the same margins on Labor Day, his predicted probability of winning will be much higher than it is now.

There's also polling errors you have to take into account. Even if the election were held today, Biden needs only a small polling error to beat Trump in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin (much smaller than the polling errors in previous elections). Of course, if you believe that there's some factor that makes the polls systematically underestimate Trump, as they did in 2016 and 2020, and believe that it's still true today, then maybe you don't care about that because you don't think there will be that kind of polling error. But historically, polling errors are random, and two elections is nowhere near a good enough sample size to prove that this trend is over. And if we factor in priors, it does seem likely that the polls are overestimating Trump right now, at least in some states (e.g., Nevada).

@Bair And yes, of course it's possible that it's all just wishcasting and all of these are retroactive justifications for a misguided probability estimate. But I do think that any news sources that look at the polls right now and conclude that Biden is definitely doomed are way overconfident.

bought Ṁ10 Joe Biden YES

@WilliamDewey (Imo) other sources are overweighting polls vs fundamentals a bit atm given distance to the election

bought Ṁ3,000 Joe Biden NO

@WilliamDewey polymarket is giving Biden 42%, with a betting volume of 128 million US dollars.

So efficient market hypothesis and all, I think you should take it more seriously than Manifold

@colorednoise When it comes to political campaigns with deep pockets that spend on perception because perception influences voter turnout, $128M total market capitalization ain't shit. In 2020 US presidential campaign spending was $3.16B for Democrats and less than $1B for Republicans. That doesn't include dark money pools... Expect a higher generalized spend this year.

@becauseyoudo is there a reason to expect that prediction markets cannot work on events that have a lot of money spent on them? Kalshi seems to do pretty well predicting interest rates which are a consequence of trillions in the macroeconomy.

@SemioticRivalry The value of accurately predicting future interest rates is a whole lot higher than the value of predicting the next president (trillions vs low billions). The value of publicly releasing those accurate predictions is also much higher for interest rates.

Lenders want borrowers to be able to plan for and pay back their debt. Political campaigns don't want the other side to know their plans, tactics or even their projected outcomes if possible. Political campaigns are also in the business of spending large sums of money to convince voters to cast a ballot on election day (perception drives voter turnout).

Since political campaigns have this higher preference for information asymmetry between each other and the voters they are trying to influence, it make sense that they would attempt to extend that asymmetry to polls, prediction markets and other sources of public information.

I'm not sure if its even possible to prevent the manipulation of public sources of information but increasing the cost of the manipulation (> market capitalization of the prediction market) seems like a reasonable place to start.

@becauseyoudo So your position is that political campaigns are spending millions of dollars to manipulate prediction markets? This is just clearly not happening. I think prediction markets are accurate for reasons totally orthogonal to the 'value' of the forecast, they're accurate because people have a strong incentive to be right.

@SemioticRivalry Why not? It seems like an easy spend to change the perception that your candidate is ahead, which is their function. The incentive to be right, or the incentive to make money from being right competes directly with the incentive to control the perception of future outcomes.

@becauseyoudo Very few people actually care about prediction market prices. There are many easier ways to spend millions of dollars to actually try to help your cause. And it's not necessarily obvious that you would want to show your candidate as being ahead. In 2016, many Democrats felt like they had already won the election, so they failed to actually vote.