Resolves to the person who wins the majority of votes for US President in the Electoral College, or selected by Congress following the contingency procedure in the Twelfth Amendment.
(May resolve provisionally if both the Associated Press projects a winner and the losing major party candidate concedes; if Manifold allows provisional resolutions.)
1,000
3.00Here's another example of my belief that we are starting to see either mean reversion or an effect like was seen in France, where reactionaries were winning and people who saw the poll results got angry and showed up to vote:
We can see that in this latest poll, if there is no polling error, this is a HARRIS victory. I sold my Trump a few days ago and think we'll definitely see Harris rise above the current 43, so I'm going to slowly enter her now.
@SteveSokolowski Yes, it's a stable equilibrium around 50%. The more the polls swing one way, the more it energizes the other side
Note arbitrage opportunities with this:
https://manifold.markets/ManifoldPolitics/will-trump-win-the-2024-election
and this:
https://manifold.markets/ManifoldPolitics/if-joe-biden-drops-out-and-endorses
(both much less liquid that this).
I've run out of mana to close the arb, but it should have capacity for a few 1000.
@amerigovespucci Hot take: the real IMPERATOR · CAIVS · IVLIVS · CAESAR · AVCVSTVS · OCTAVIANVS would find Donald Trump to be pathetic, due to, among many things, his lack of direct military command (due to draft dodging), his rejection of the Roman pantheon, and his lack of pederasty
@adele lol yeah early voting lines wrapping around the building with a big gender disparity in favor of women getting out to vote.. Is bad for Harris.
There are HARRIS supporters going to Republican women and doing nothing but having verbal conversations. They intentionally don't provide them with any written materials, don't add them to Democratic lists, suggest they not request a mail-in ballot, and tell them not to answer polls. They are urged to simply show up in person and vote against the toxic masculinity and for abortion rights, then tell their husbands and family members that they support TRUMP just like the husband does. Apparently, 100,000 women like this have been identified or already contacted.
This strategy will directly and intentionally cause some amount polling error in Harris's favor in the swing states. It won't make any appreciable difference in the national polls, which are irrelevant anyway.
I don't agree with the people who believe there are a lot of "hidden Trump voters" out there - everywhere I go, there are signs and bumper stickers. Supporting Trump has become normal.
In addition to my worry that Trump might have peaked just slightly too early and will see mean reversion, I remain out of this market because there is an above-average chance of polling error in the opposite direction this time.
@SteveSokolowski normally my first red flag is when someone says silent majority. Or wave. This goes for any side. Right now both sides are saying they will have a wave and that there are mysterious voters who will come out of the woodworks. In my opinion that means a coin flip. But I always ignore these 🌊. This looks like it will be a low male turn out election. Speaking with a lot of men I know they find both Harris and trump to be dumb. So if women really are coming out in numbers they may very well decide the election.
My affiliation is with Harris but. I see this election as a daily coinflip market on steroids.
@SteveSokolowski Where did the 100,000 number come from? Could make a difference if the election is really as close as it seems.
@AndrewCrosse I don't think there's a silent majority here. I think the polls are largely corrected from the previous years.
However, there are a few reasons why I sold 100% of my TRUMP in this market:
While Trump had good polls, there isn't a sign that this is a breakout and it could revert to the mean very easily. This market is now about right, but the real money markets remain overvalued.
Trump is trying to court young men, but the truth is that young men rarely vote. There isn't a precedent for likely voter models with that situation.
Harris was losing largely because she simply wasn't trying very hard. She has been doing a lot of interviews, media appearances, and is filling stadiums now. If she had been doing this a while ago, she would probably be in the lead, but it's better late than never for her.
There is a higher black swan risk of a negative story against Trump than against Harris, including the video of the rumored child abuse story turning up.
Stock options on banks, as I said below, are selling at insane prices, which I believe indicates people are overpricing Trump into the stock market.
The trend recently is towards reactionary parties leading in the polls and underperforming when the votes are cast, often with massive last-minute protests before the election, as happened in France and Germany.
The tactic by Harris to intentionally tell Republican women to lie will have some small effect on the polls, given that Trump is not doing the same thing.
I also expect that the polling itself that shows Trump in the lead, combined with Harris reiterating it constantly, is going to shock some women who care about abortion to turn out. If there are any more polls this cycle, I think Trump is going to lose the lead in this market before Election Day, regardless of who ultimately wins.
@SteveSokolowski basically my prediction about the trump nothing pump was right. It was poorly timed. I realized from the assination attempt that trump was struggling to keep energy up in his base and the average trump high was at most 2 weeks.
Important to note that attention spans of people are getting smaller due to modern media formats. Also the fact that each high needs to be stronger than the last.
While I believe you can do a nothing pump to boost morale and help your odds. You have to time it properly. If the trump pump had just began it would have been well time and would yield better results. But instead it's stagnant.
Harris seems to be starting a mild pump in her base. I assume shes afraid of making them too comfortable but needsnher base to think that every single vote counts
@8 Profit graph shows Trump dipping down to 43% a few hours ago, but I can't find any evidence of it in the trades tab, weird.
@SimranRahman https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksaul/2024/10/24/who-is-polymarkets-trump-whale-site-reveals-french-trader-bet-28-million-on-trump-win/ its up to 35 million now. Easy to manipulate market.
@AlexGraettinger is this mysterious French whale manipulating things on Manifold, as well? Or are you just cope posting everywhere?
@PlasmaBallin You will notice Manifold does not use real money, which leaves more room for people to express their feelings using their bets.