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I still have no reason to believe why Newsom would gamble on throwing a campaign together at the last minute, when he has a clear path to the nomination in 2028. Or Gretchen Whitmer.
@JamesGrugett
This market became big in the window between new multichoice being created and the addition of magic Other options that let users add new candidates.
How hard would it be for a staff member to convert my manual Other option into one of the new-style ones? If it's trivial I'd like to formally request that.
@BenAdams He's set himself up as the de facto candidate if Biden falls to actuarial luck (or is rendered unable to perform basic functions)
@StopPunting Actually I think Pritzker is much better positioned since he can finance the entire campaign himself. Newsom would need to raise tons of money.
@StopPunting I think this is mostly just the Fox News bubble. The man is barely above water with regards to his approval in California. he has no natural constituency within the Democratic Party primary. He is too moderate for the progressives, but he doesn’t have the support among minority voters. He would need to win as a moderate. The only thing he has is more money then average and as Brian mentioned, this is not something that’s unique to him
@BenAdams I agree he isn't particularly liked in California, just that being the governor and the machine he has developed around him would allow him to more seamlessly transition into the campaign trail/debates than somebody like Pritzker who could just dump a bunch of money but wouldn't have that infrastructure or experience. I also don't think he carries the same national profile baggage as he does in California at least one that would coherently be leveraged against him the general. I don't think there would realistically be much of a primary. Whitmer or Buttigieg, who I agree would probably have a better constituencies, hasn't searched for the opportunity for the spotlight (and almost certainly don't have the war-chest), and Harris seems to be iced out.
2028+ is a completely different story (where I would be bearish on Newsome), but he is the clearly better positioned in national profile and election structure that I can't see a Biden emergency resulting in anybody but him being seen as better prepared to utilize/inherent the DNC support as a candidate.
President Biden's weak polls reveal widespread dissatisfaction, yet Democrats secure wins elsewhere, illustrating a paradox in public sentiment. Despite discontent with Biden, voters reject Republicans, particularly on issues like abortion. Democratic strategist Lis Smith advises the Biden campaign to highlight achievements and address dissatisfaction ahead of the next elections. These dynamic underscores the complexity of voter attitudes, signaling a need for strategic communication to navigate the challenging political landscape. The analysis suggests that, despite Biden's struggles, the electorate may still lean towards Democrats, emphasizing the nuanced interplay of factors shaping electoral outcomes (https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/biden-polls-poorly-trump-democrats-winning/story?id=104765638)
@EmmanuelDapaah2f1f I am not quite sure if this addresses the question directly -- shouldn't we be focusing on whether Democratic voters will reject Biden, rather than whether voters in general will reject Republicans?
@MichaelWheatley Oh that makes sense. I'd seen a few people with 2024 end dates that didn't make much sense, and that explains why.