Who will win the U.S. 2024 Democratic presidential nomination?
1K
5.9K
12K
Aug 24
92%
Joe Biden
3%
A Candidate Not Listed Here
2%
Gavin Newsom
2%
Kamala Harris
0.3%
Pete Buttigieg
0.1%
Hillary Clinton
0.1%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
0%
Marianne Williamson
0%
Joe Manchin

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A Candidate Not Listed Here

why did it turn green???

bought Ṁ300 Joe Biden YES

@Unown This is why we don't trust real-money prediction markets.

Made a time sensitive version of the question, for the Yglesias prediction category (reasoning inside why it's not just a duplicate):

@JamesGrugett
This market became big in the window between new multichoice being created and the addition of magic Other options that let users add new candidates.

How hard would it be for a staff member to convert my manual Other option into one of the new-style ones? If it's trivial I'd like to formally request that.

why are they all 🤮🤮🤮

@AlexCao Don't talk about my wonderful Transportation Secretary like that

Why do these markets always have Newsom so high? Like idk if he could even win the primary if Biden was not running

bought Ṁ50 of Joe Biden NO

@BenAdams He's set himself up as the de facto candidate if Biden falls to actuarial luck (or is rendered unable to perform basic functions)

@StopPunting Actually I think Pritzker is much better positioned since he can finance the entire campaign himself. Newsom would need to raise tons of money.

@StopPunting I think this is mostly just the Fox News bubble. The man is barely above water with regards to his approval in California. he has no natural constituency within the Democratic Party primary. He is too moderate for the progressives, but he doesn’t have the support among minority voters. He would need to win as a moderate. The only thing he has is more money then average and as Brian mentioned, this is not something that’s unique to him

@BenAdams I agree he isn't particularly liked in California, just that being the governor and the machine he has developed around him would allow him to more seamlessly transition into the campaign trail/debates than somebody like Pritzker who could just dump a bunch of money but wouldn't have that infrastructure or experience. I also don't think he carries the same national profile baggage as he does in California at least one that would coherently be leveraged against him the general. I don't think there would realistically be much of a primary. Whitmer or Buttigieg, who I agree would probably have a better constituencies, hasn't searched for the opportunity for the spotlight (and almost certainly don't have the war-chest), and Harris seems to be iced out.

2028+ is a completely different story (where I would be bearish on Newsome), but he is the clearly better positioned in national profile and election structure that I can't see a Biden emergency resulting in anybody but him being seen as better prepared to utilize/inherent the DNC support as a candidate.

bought Ṁ10 of Joe Biden YES

President Biden's weak polls reveal widespread dissatisfaction, yet Democrats secure wins elsewhere, illustrating a paradox in public sentiment. Despite discontent with Biden, voters reject Republicans, particularly on issues like abortion. Democratic strategist Lis Smith advises the Biden campaign to highlight achievements and address dissatisfaction ahead of the next elections. These dynamic underscores the complexity of voter attitudes, signaling a need for strategic communication to navigate the challenging political landscape. The analysis suggests that, despite Biden's struggles, the electorate may still lean towards Democrats, emphasizing the nuanced interplay of factors shaping electoral outcomes (https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/biden-polls-poorly-trump-democrats-winning/story?id=104765638)

@EmmanuelDapaah2f1f I am not quite sure if this addresses the question directly -- shouldn't we be focusing on whether Democratic voters will reject Biden, rather than whether voters in general will reject Republicans?

bought Ṁ10 of Kamala Harris YES

If it's not Biden, decent chance it's bc he died, in which case Harris would be incumbent.

A real contender, all that needs to happen is for Joe Biden to legally change his name to Cenk Uygur.

Why is the end date Dec 31? Shouldn't it be after the convention in 2024?

@MatthewEstes EOY is the default, updated it just now.

bought Ṁ100 of Kamala Harris NO

@MatthewEstes (thanks for the reminder)

@MichaelWheatley Oh that makes sense. I'd seen a few people with 2024 end dates that didn't make much sense, and that explains why.

bought Ṁ1,000 of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. NO

RFK is falling among Democrats as people become more familiar with him and his views. (source: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/rfk-jr-democrat-republican-primary-favorability/)

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