It is coming!

I hope this "superchat market" doesn't become a trend.

@FrederickNorris it can't resolve YES, so I don't think people are incentivized to make them

Shoutout to whoever added all those names from the 538 draft

https://twitter.com/EdKrassen/status/1690404294250401793

So cringe. (Vivek rapping an Eminem song)

Am I missing something or is OTHER resolution basically impossible? I can’t imagine a scenario that the candidate wouldn’t be announced before the RNC picks them formally?

@JoshuaB if you buy Other shares, you get the same amount for free on new answers that are made (the total value of your stake stays the same. currently NO shares on Other get converted to YES shares elsewhere, but it's the same effect)

@Stralor I'm not sure it really works. If I buy YES shares of Other, I have to worry about someone adding a low probability option that immediately gets bid down, reducing my expected value.

I feel it would work better if the markets were unlinked. They wouldn't need to sum to 1, and as a side benefit, early resolve, voiding options, and true multi-resolve would all be possible. The only downside is it would cost more to provide the liquidity for each option.

@travis That has other disadvantages like not being easily comparable, but do it! A bunch already exist but there are probably some still to make

@travis Also, your Other shares stay, so more answers that get added ALSO get the same amount of shares so long as you don't sell.

@Stralor To be clear, I wasn't critiquing your market, just sharing my loose thoughts on the new market type.

If it's as you say, that you maintain the same number of Other shares when new options are added, then my complaint isn't valid.

@travis it's all good :) (I didn't think you were)

high "Other" here. any suggestions for other candidates, or are we too far out for possibilities?

With the nomination itself being still under so much contention, this is a pretty tough one.

"If the answer is unambiguously duplicated, resolves to the version with the highest percent."

This can't work, right? Anybody could just add a duplicate and bid it up.

@travis ooo I didn't foresee that issue. I'm willing to adjust. suggestions?

@Stralor I think you have to say all duplicates are ignored. It's usually obvious which was added first.

@Stralor Maybe "resolves to the version that was added first?" It's possible to see that in the "X Trades" tab.

@evergreenemily reasonable, and gets at what I was trying for. will edit

Maybe some day it will be possible to resolve individual options early. So you could just N/A any irrelevant option.