Will the Democrats win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2024 elections?
141
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Nov 19
74%
chance

Resolves to YES if the Democratic Party wins at least 218 of the 435 seats in the US House of Representatives in the November 2024 elections. This can include independent candidates who caucus with the Democrats (in the same way that the party's Senate majority relies on independent senators). It doesn't matter if a Democrat actually becomes Speaker, only who wins more than half the seats in the election.

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Made a time sensitive (but inversed, this is just the question with the Yglesias tag) version of the question, for the Yglesias prediction category (reasoning inside why it's not just a duplicate):