If Donald Trump is elected, which of his campaign promises will be achieved?

5.5kṀ7585

2029

91%

"defend your Second Amendment right to keep and bear arms"

89%

"end catch-and-release, restore Remain in Mexico, and eliminate asylum fraud"

88%

empower the President to impose reciprocal tariffs

82%

"lower taxes"

79%

"keep men out of women’s sports"

79%

"deputize the National Guard and local law enforcement to assist with rapidly removing illegal alien gang members and criminals"

71%

"increase penalties for assaults on law enforcement"

71%

"open Civil Rights investigations into any school district that has engaged in race-based discrimination"

65%

"order the Department of Defense to inflict maximum damage on cartel leadership and operations"

63%

"REVOKE China’s Most Favored Nation trade status"

63%

"reward states and school districts that abolish teacher tenure for grades K-12 and adopt Merit Pay"

58%

"stop all COVID mandates"

53%

"more jobs for American workers"

50%

"deliver a merit-based immigration system that protects American labor and promotes American values"

48%

"cut the number of school administrators"

47%

"choke off [cartels'] access to the global financial system"

45%

"cut federal funding for any school or program pushing Critical Race Theory or gender ideology on our children"

44%

"ask Congress to ensure that drug smugglers and traffickers can receive the Death Penalty"

44%

"strengthen qualified immunity and other protections for police officers"

44%

"uphold your religious liberty, including the Constitutional right to pray in public schools"

Which of Donald Trump's campaign promises will he actually achieve?

All options are taken from https://www.donaldjtrump.com/issues or https://www.donaldjtrump.com/agenda47/agenda47-cementing-fair-and-reciprocal-trade-with-the-trump-reciprocal-trade-act

Resolves YES for any items that have been achieved by the end of his presidency. They have to actually have been achieved (for example, a bill has passed to ban trans women from participating in women's sports, a constitutional amendment has been passed), though it doesn't have to be the most complete version, just enough that it's reasonable to say that it has been achieved (for example, trans women could be banned at the high school level but not college level). He doesn't have to have directly caused it to happen, it just has to have happened. They do have to have occurred nationwide however (so individual states banning trans women would not count without a nationwide ban).

If any promise was debatably already true (for example, ending COVID mandates), he must take some action to go further.

For many of these, it will ultimately wind up being somewhat subjective, but I will do my best to be impartial and defer to consensus opinion, and I will not hold any positions in this market. If any are too ambiguous, I reserve the right to resolve N/A.

All options resolve N/A if Donald Trump is not elected president in 2024.

For some positions that are not objective on Trump's campaign website, I will provide a specific definition below. For items that are based on a given date, I will as close as possible compare December 31, 2024 with December 31, 2028, or compare December 2024 with December 2028. For items based on a quarter, I will compare Q4 2024 with Q4 2028. For items that are based on a given year or fiscal year, I will compare 2024 with 2028.

"lower taxes"
- Compare the total federal revenue in each year, adjusted for GDP. This is not precisely the same as taxes, but it's almost entirely taxes and other forms of fees are in some way equivalent to taxes
"bigger paychecks"
- Compare the "Annual Wages per Employee" in each quarter, adjusted for inflation
"more jobs for American workers"
- The nonfarm payroll employment in the US is higher than at the start of the term.
"reduce the soaring price of gasoline, diesel and natural gas"
- Compare the national average price of gasoline and diesel at the pump, and Henry Hub Natural Gas spot price. All three must be lower.