If Donald Trump is elected, which of his campaign promises will be achieved?
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2029
78%
"lower taxes"
71%
"designate cartels as Foreign Terrorist Organizations"
65%
"put violent offenders and career criminals behind bars"
60%
"REVOKE China’s Most Favored Nation trade status"
59%
empower the President to impose reciprocal tariffs
59%
"order the Department of Defense to inflict maximum damage on cartel leadership and operations"
56%
"more jobs for American workers"
54%
"reward states and school districts that abolish teacher tenure for grades K-12 and adopt Merit Pay"
53%
"stop all COVID mandates"
49%
"bigger paychecks"
47%
"defend your Second Amendment right to keep and bear arms"
44%
"deputize the National Guard and local law enforcement to assist with rapidly removing illegal alien gang members and criminals"
44%
"ask Congress to ensure that drug smugglers and traffickers can receive the Death Penalty"
42%
"keep America out of unnecessary foreign wars"
42%
"enacting landmark legislation to drastically limit the ability of big social media platforms to restrict free speech"
40%
"banning federal agencies from censoring speech"
40%
"banning taxpayer funds from being used to categorize lawful speech for purposes of illicit censorship"
40%
"surge federal prosecutors and the National Guard into high-crime communities"
39%
"strengthen qualified immunity and other protections for police officers"
39%
"increase penalties for assaults on law enforcement"

Which of Donald Trump's campaign promises will he actually achieve?

All options are taken from https://www.donaldjtrump.com/issues or https://www.donaldjtrump.com/agenda47/agenda47-cementing-fair-and-reciprocal-trade-with-the-trump-reciprocal-trade-act

Resolves YES for any items that have been achieved by the end of his presidency. They have to actually have been achieved (for example, a bill has passed to ban trans women from participating in women's sports, a constitutional amendment has been passed), though it doesn't have to be the most complete version, just enough that it's reasonable to say that it has been achieved (for example, trans women could be banned at the high school level but not college level). He doesn't have to have directly caused it to happen, it just has to have happened. They do have to have occurred nationwide however (so individual states banning trans women would not count without a nationwide ban).

If any promise was debatably already true (for example, ending COVID mandates), he must take some action to go further.

For many of these, it will ultimately wind up being somewhat subjective, but I will do my best to be impartial and defer to consensus opinion, and I will not hold any positions in this market. If any are too ambiguous, I reserve the right to resolve N/A.

All options resolve N/A if Donald Trump is not elected president in 2024.

For some positions that are not objective on Trump's campaign website, I will provide a specific definition below. For items that are based on a given date, I will as close as possible compare December 31, 2024 with December 31, 2028, or compare December 2024 with December 2028. For items based on a quarter, I will compare Q4 2024 with Q4 2028. For items that are based on a given year or fiscal year, I will compare 2024 with 2028.

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There are a lot of options on here that still seem like they could use further clarification. How are you going to adjudicate, ""uphold your religious liberty, including the Constitutional right to pray in public schools," for example? It's already legal to pray in public schools, they just can't be state-sponsored prayers. Does he have to cause Engel v. Vitale to be overturned for this to resolve YES?

@PlasmaBallin Since this is already true to some extent, he must do some further action. That doesn't need to be overturning Engel v. Vitale, but it has to be some meaningful action taken to change it. For example, a bill could be passed that mandates that schools need to have a ten minute period at the start of every day that can 'either be used for prayer or sitting in respectful silence'. I don't know if this would be constitutional, but it doesn't quite seem to go against Engel.

@Gabrielle I'm pretty sure this exact thing has already been ruled unconstitutional in a follow-up case. There were a lot of schools that tried to do a "moment of silence" to get around Engel v. Vitale.

@PlasmaBallin Good to know, thanks. Sounds like this one might be somewhat tough for Trump to achieve, though I suppose Roe v. Wade was also considered pretty fixed law a few years ago.

"put violent offenders and career criminals behind bars"

Does Donald Trump count as a career criminal given his many legal issues?

@PlasmaBallin Hah, good thought, but no. That one will resolve based on some combination of looking at whether prison populations have gone up and if so what categories of criminals made up that increase.

This market is a mess. Lots of these are either trivially 0% / 100%, or impossible to adjudicate, depending on how you interpret. And the fact that there are 53 options means most traders won't even read them all.

Would have been much better to select only a few promises to focus on, ones which are meaningful (unlike "bigger paychecks") and can be cleanly adjudicated (unlike "keep America out of unnecessary foreign wars").

"stopping federal funding for all non-profits and academic programs engaged in censorship"

As the other comment?

Same as the other comment, it would need to stop federal funding for programs engaged in censorship regardless of the political leaning of the censorship.

"banning taxpayer funds from being used to categorize lawful speech for purposes of illicit censorship"

Resolves assuming censoring Unamerican Speech is fine, actually?

@Lorxus I think this one (and the other censorship one) require the censorship banning to be generic, not just speech he agrees with - it’s supposed to be about restoring the first amendment, and that isn’t specific about which speech is allowed.

bought Ṁ10 of "enacting landmark l... NO

@Gabrielle True, but historically lopsided enforcement of anti-censorship statutes has been the MO of choice for governments to pretend they're promoting free speech while outsourcing cracking down on Undesirables, including historically in the US. So - my question stands?

@Lorxus I’m going to resolve this based on it being actually anti-censorship, not just anti-conservative-censorship or anti-patriotic-censorship.

If he promised “I’ll give all Americans $1000” and then only gave Trump voters that (because “they are the only true Americans”), that would have to resolve NO, and this seems similar.

@Gabrielle Not sure why this applies here and not in “upholding religious liberty, including praying in public schools”

"uphold your religious liberty, including the Constitutional right to pray in public schools"

Resolves assuming he meant Christianity only? I doubt he's interested in promoting salat, say.

@Lorxus Yes, just Christianity is sufficient, anyone reading it knows what he means

@Gabrielle
"lower taxes": I'm not sure if total revenue is a good metric because it also dependent on the size of the economy. He could lower taxes, but in four years the economy could grow a lot, which would increase federal revenue despite lower taxes
"bigger paychecks": You should probably adjust for inflation

@Simon74fe I’ve added a note that they’re both adjusted for inflation. I’ll need to think more about whether a different metric for taxes makes more sense. Do you have a suggestion?

@Gabrielle "lower taxes" should be adjusted by gdp, not just by inflation. I'm also not sure if there are any other better metrics

@Simon74fe Good point, I’ve changed to be adjusted by GDP.

If anyone thinks I’ve missed a promise, let me know where he said it and I’ll add it as an option.

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