They currently control 49. Joe Manchin is retiring, so West Virginia will likely put their total at 50.

Republicans have additional pickup opportunities in [related markets linked - but note that they DO NOT ALL have the same resolution criteria]

• Montana (Jon Tester) /lisamarsh/will-a-democrat-win-the-2024-us-sen-acee7113d48b

• Ohio (Sherrod Brown) /lisamarsh/will-a-democrat-win-the-2024-us-sen-3fa6f52b2360

• Wisconsin (Tammy Baldwin) /lisamarsh/will-a-democrat-win-the-2024-us-sen-a7d1f3081204

• Pennsylvania (Bob Casey, Jr.) /IsaacKing/will-bob-casey-jr-win-reelection-in

• Michigan (Debbie Stabenow, retiring) /lisamarsh/will-a-democrat-win-the-2024-us-sen-f0ffd6dfe13c

• Arizona (Kyrsten Sinema, potential three-way race) /octothorpe/will-a-democrat-who-is-not-kyrsten

• Nevada (Jacky Rosen) /lisamarsh/will-a-democrat-win-the-2024-us-sen-66520e283b7c

• Minnesota (Amy Klobuchar) /lisamarsh/will-a-democrat-win-the-2024-us-sen-8c5a4807b39d

• Maine (Angus King) /IsaacKing/will-angus-king-win-reelection-in-t

Meanwhile, Democrats have basically no pickup opportunities. Their best options are Texas (Ted Cruz /lisamarsh/will-a-democrat-win-the-2024-us-sen-cbcf76fa3af7) and Florida (Rick Scott /BTE/will-rick-scott-be-reelected-to-the)

Anyway, I wanted to make a granular market on number of seats, because I’m curious about stats like the median, mode, and “are Republicans more likely to win 55 seats than to lose.”

I will resolve this market once each Senate race is projected by a major news network or Dave Wasserman. I will re-resolve if these projections turn out wrong, or if there is a surprise party switch.

General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.