How many Senate seats will Republicans control after the 2024 elections?
78
549
3.6K
Nov 9
6%
48 or fewer
8%
49
15%
50
16%
51
28%
52
13%
53
7%
54
5%
55
3%
56 or more

They currently control 49. Joe Manchin is retiring, so West Virginia will likely put their total at 50.

Republicans have additional pickup opportunities in [related markets linked - but note that they DO NOT ALL have the same resolution criteria]

Meanwhile, Democrats have basically no pickup opportunities. Their best options are Texas (Ted Cruz /lisamarsh/will-a-democrat-win-the-2024-us-sen-cbcf76fa3af7) and Florida (Rick Scott /BTE/will-rick-scott-be-reelected-to-the)

Anyway, I wanted to make a granular market on number of seats, because I’m curious about stats like the median, mode, and “are Republicans more likely to win 55 seats than to lose.”

I will resolve this market once each Senate race is projected by a major news network or Dave Wasserman. I will re-resolve if these projections turn out wrong, or if there is a surprise party switch.

General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.

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bought Ṁ25 of 52 NO

Insane that 1 bracket is at 38%. Even if it's the modal outcome, it's not that likely.

bought Ṁ8 of 53 YES

Seems like too much weight on 50-52. The range of outcomes seems much wider. There are too many variables, such as the amount of split ticketing, the state of the economy in 2024, etc.

bought Ṁ5 of 53 YES

@riverwalk3 Republicans are likely to have a wall at 50 seats: Manchin is not seeking reelection in West Virginia, and theres a good chance all GOP-held seats will stay GOP. From there, it’s just about how many of the 5 or so Democrat seats the GOP could flip, if any. That would be the argument for 50-52.