How many Senate seats will Republicans control after the 2024 elections?
Basic
87
10k
Nov 9
8%
48 or fewer
·
8mo
12%
49
·
8mo
17%
50
·
8mo
18%
51
·
8mo
22%
52
·
8mo
11%
53
·
8mo
5%
54
·
8mo
4%
55
·
8mo
3%
56 or more
·
8mo

They currently control 49. Joe Manchin is retiring, so West Virginia will likely put their total at 50.

Republicans have additional pickup opportunities in [related markets linked - but note that they DO NOT ALL have the same resolution criteria]

Meanwhile, Democrats have basically no pickup opportunities. Their best options are Texas (Ted Cruz /lisamarsh/will-a-democrat-win-the-2024-us-sen-cbcf76fa3af7) and Florida (Rick Scott /BTE/will-rick-scott-be-reelected-to-the)

Anyway, I wanted to make a granular market on number of seats, because I’m curious about stats like the median, mode, and “are Republicans more likely to win 55 seats than to lose.”

I will resolve this market once each Senate race is projected by a major news network or Dave Wasserman. I will re-resolve if these projections turn out wrong, or if there is a surprise party switch.

General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.

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Insane that 1 bracket is at 38%. Even if it's the modal outcome, it's not that likely.

Seems like too much weight on 50-52. The range of outcomes seems much wider. There are too many variables, such as the amount of split ticketing, the state of the economy in 2024, etc.

@riverwalk3 Republicans are likely to have a wall at 50 seats: Manchin is not seeking reelection in West Virginia, and theres a good chance all GOP-held seats will stay GOP. From there, it’s just about how many of the 5 or so Democrat seats the GOP could flip, if any. That would be the argument for 50-52.