Will Republicans take the majority in the US Senate in 2024?

Democrats are defending 23 seats, so they face an uphill battle.

In the case of a 50-50 split, this will be resolved according to whether the VP is Republican. Just so this is clear, the tie breaker is the presidential election.

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bought Ṁ100 of NO

The GOP will lose the House, Senate, and control of the majority of governorships.

bought Ṁ50 YES from 81% to 82%
bought Ṁ50 of YES

@NoMoreGiants You want them to but that’s a different question. Why are you confident they’ll lose all?

bought Ṁ100 of YES


bought Ṁ50 of NO

Gotta throw some long money at this one for no other reason than hope

predicts YES

@LBeesley i'm willing to buy pretty much any amount of yes at this price

bought Ṁ147 of YES

It's hopeless for democrats.

bought Ṁ200 of YES

@MP how I wish there was a real money prediction market on this question...

bought Ṁ0 of YES

@MP WTF is that price? I don't want to violate federal law but that's crazy

predicts YES

@SemioticRivalry well, I don't live in the US 😝

I currently have a small bet at Biden nomination at 1.3x. Considering adding to that (and to Kamala at 15x too)

But the banger right now is buying Milei

bought Ṁ160 of YES

Manchin isn’t running for reelection, so that’s one seat that’s certain to flip. That’s one seat that Democrats really couldn’t afford to lose.

bought Ṁ0 of YES

bigly limits on yes

Lol, so sad a market so important like this is so illiquid and the 25th AI doom market you can bet 1,000,000 and don't move the odds

how does this resolve if it's 50-50? does it matter who the vice president is or do you just resolve to NO

@Tripping There is always a majority and yes it will be based on who the VP is in the case of a split Senate.

@BTE I intend to use this market as the "blessed" market for this question, and edited the description to clarify what you've said in the above comment. Feel free to re-edit.

Do we have markets on West Virginia?

@MP Manchin?

@BTE yeah, I have no view there, but to me this market will track that one

@MP That is a pretty good take. You are probably right. There are many more dems up in two years than republicans. Twice as many actually.