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@mods BTE Market. They just called the senate for the GOP

Dan Osborn may be the difference in this market

https://elections2024.thehill.com/forecast/2024/senate/ froze their predictions after Biden announced he would not run again. I put a very high probability that Harris’ entry into the race will positively impact many Democratic Senate races; so the current prediction from The Hill, 78%, will drop.

I wonder why their model thinks Brown is so much more likely to win than Gallego even though he's in a much redder state and has the same polling lead. I guess it's because he's the incumbent?

it's because it's a bad model (respectfully)

Democrats are defending 23 seats, so they face an uphill battle.

The first part of the sentence has no bearing on the second part.

True, but I think it actually understates how much of an uphill battle they have. The description could be, "Democrats are defending 5 seats in major swing states and three in red states, while Republicans are only defending seats in red states."

I welcome an edit to the question that enohasizes how many seats are in swing states. / That said, a logically vapid sentence shouldn’t be used as a basis for comparison.

E.g. “Because Mercury is larger than Jupiter the U.S. Democrats are going to have a tough 2024 Senate race.”

Trump will carry Texas, Florida, and West Virginia over the line down-ballot. From there, Democrats have to win all of the competitive seats, and even if they do, Republicans can gain control with a Republican VP.

GOP loses in an FDR-like wipeout because they let a trust fund baby who wants to play Boss Tweed and Tammany Hall take over the party.

History isn't a mirror it's a trail.

1. This sounds ideologically driven. Ideology of course matters for what you want. But ideology does not a good prediction make.

2. I don’t see a strong argument here. Maybe not even a valid one.

3. Your last sentence: what do you intend it to mean?

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna144822

If she leaves the party to become independent it hurts R senate odds.

@BennyBoy think it's pretty likely shed continue to caucus with them

The GOP will lose the House, Senate, and control of the majority of governorships.

@NoMoreGiants You want them to but that’s a different question. Why are you confident they’ll lose all?

🤣🤣🤣😆😆😆

@NicoDelon Dobbs

@BennyBoy Yup... The GOP lost last night in Madison, Alabama. They lost a deep red city council seat in a 33 point swing due to DOBBS.

It amuses me the arrogance of the right and the pretend libertarian tech bros. Read some history, learn about the politics, stop thinking the Internet is reality. It's not. It's a comms tool.

@NoMoreGiants Manifold leans left, actually.

Gotta throw some long money at this one for no other reason than hope

@LBeesley i'm willing to buy pretty much any amount of yes at this price

It's hopeless for democrats.

@MP how I wish there was a real money prediction market on this question...

@SemioticRivalry https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-control-the-us-senate-after-the-2024-election

Polymarket | Which party will control the U.S. Senate aft...

Polymarket | The 2024 United States Senate elections will be held on November 5, 2024, with 33 of the 100 seats in the Senate being contested. This market w...

@MP WTF is that price? I don't want to violate federal law but that's crazy

@SemioticRivalry well, I don't live in the US 😝

I currently have a small bet at Biden nomination at 1.3x. Considering adding to that (and to Kamala at 15x too)

But the banger right now is buying Milei