Will Republicans take the majority in the US Senate in 2024?

Democrats are defending 23 seats, so they face an uphill battle.

In the case of a 50-50 split, this will be resolved according to whether the VP is Republican. Just so this is clear, the tie breaker is the presidential election.

Get Ṁ600 play money
Sort by:


If she leaves the party to become independent it hurts R senate odds.

Trump will carry Texas, Florida, and West Virginia over the line down-ballot. From there, Democrats have to win all of the competitive seats, and even if they do, Republicans can gain control with a Republican VP.

bought Ṁ121 NO

GOP loses in an FDR-like wipeout because they let a trust fund baby who wants to play Boss Tweed and Tammany Hall take over the party.

History isn't a mirror it's a trail.


If she leaves the party to become independent it hurts R senate odds.

@BennyBoy think it's pretty likely shed continue to caucus with them

The GOP will lose the House, Senate, and control of the majority of governorships.

2 traders bought Ṁ550 YES

@NoMoreGiants You want them to but that’s a different question. Why are you confident they’ll lose all?


@NicoDelon Dobbs

@BennyBoy Yup... The GOP lost last night in Madison, Alabama. They lost a deep red city council seat in a 33 point swing due to DOBBS.

It amuses me the arrogance of the right and the pretend libertarian tech bros. Read some history, learn about the politics, stop thinking the Internet is reality. It's not. It's a comms tool.

@NoMoreGiants Manifold leans left, actually.

Gotta throw some long money at this one for no other reason than hope

predicts YES

@LBeesley i'm willing to buy pretty much any amount of yes at this price

It's hopeless for democrats.

@MP how I wish there was a real money prediction market on this question...

@MP WTF is that price? I don't want to violate federal law but that's crazy

predicts YES

@SemioticRivalry well, I don't live in the US 😝

I currently have a small bet at Biden nomination at 1.3x. Considering adding to that (and to Kamala at 15x too)

But the banger right now is buying Milei

Manchin isn’t running for reelection, so that’s one seat that’s certain to flip. That’s one seat that Democrats really couldn’t afford to lose.

bigly limits on yes

Lol, so sad a market so important like this is so illiquid and the 25th AI doom market you can bet 1,000,000 and don't move the odds

how does this resolve if it's 50-50? does it matter who the vice president is or do you just resolve to NO

@Tripping There is always a majority and yes it will be based on who the VP is in the case of a split Senate.

@BTE I intend to use this market as the "blessed" market for this question, and edited the description to clarify what you've said in the above comment. Feel free to re-edit.

Do we have markets on West Virginia?

@MP Manchin?

@BTE yeah, I have no view there, but to me this market will track that one

@MP That is a pretty good take. You are probably right. There are many more dems up in two years than republicans. Twice as many actually.

More related questions