2024

January

resolved

Will Lai Ching-te be elected president of Taiwan?YES

#International Elections

resolved

Will Nikki Haley beat Ron DeSantis in the Iowa caucus?NO

#2024 Republican Primaries

resolved

Will Haley beat Trump in New Hampshire?NO

#Republican Party

FEBRUARY

resolved

Which team will win the Super Bowl?

100%99.7%

Kansas City Chiefs

0.0%

Philadelphia Eagles

0.0%

Cincinnati Bengals

0.1%

San Francisco 49ers

See 28 more answers

#Super Bowl LVIII

MARCH

resolved

Will Trump appear on the presidential primary ballot in Colorado in the 2024 election?YES

#2024 US Presidential Election

resolved

Will Trump's January 6th trial begin as scheduled on March 4th?NO

resolved

On the Monday before super tuesday, what probability of winning the nomination Manifold will think Donald Trump has?

100%99.0%

[80-100%)

0.2%

[0-20%)

0.1%

[20-40%)

0.2%

[40-60%)

See 1 more answer

#2024 Republican Primaries

resolved

SUPER TUESDAY (3/5/2024) - Will trump win 11 or more of the 15 states?YES

#2024 US Presidential Election

#Republican Party

resolved

Will Vladimir Putin be reelected President of Russia in March 2024?YES

#Mana Seeds Experiment

#Ukraine-Russia war

resolved

Will Hamas lose control of Gaza strip to someone else by April?NO

#Israel-Hamas Conflict 2023

#Arab-Israeli Conflict

APRIL

trending

Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be reelected president of Ukraine?76% chance

#Ukraine-Russia war

resolved

Will OpenAI release GPT 4.5 or GPT 5 before April 2024?NO

trending

Which three countries will win the most Gold medals at the 2024 Paris Olympics?

97%

United States

93%

China

54%

France

53%

Great Britain

See 22 more answers

#2024 Summer Olympics

MAY

resolved

What film will win best picture for the 2024 Oscars?

100%99.8%

Oppenheimer

0.1%

Killers of the Flower Moon

0.0%

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

0.0%

Past Lives

See 31 more answers

trending

Which team will win the 2023-2024 Premier League season?

65%

Manchester City

31%

Arsenal

0%

Manchester United

0%

Newcastle United

See 16 more answers

#Premier League

trending

Who will win the Premier League 2023-2024?

67%

Manchester City

30%

Arsenal

3%

Liverpool

0.1%

Manchester United

See 3 more answers

#Premier League

trending

Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?97% chance

#2024 US Presidential Election

#2024 GOP Primaries

trending

Which nominating contests will Donald Trump lose in the 2024 Republican presidential primaries and caucuses?

1.1%

Puerto Rico

1%

Wyoming

0.9%

Pennsylvania

0.1%

Connecticut

See 52 more answers

#Republican Party

#2024 US Presidential Election

REST OF THE YEAR

trending

Will GPT5 be available in ChatGPT before June 30th 2024?6% chance

#GPT-5 Speculation

trending

Will China invade Taiwan by the end of 2024?3% chance

NOVEMBER