2024

January

Ṁ1.1k

Will Lai Ching-te be elected president of Taiwan?

YES

Ṁ1.1k

Ṁ1.1k

Will Nikki Haley beat Ron DeSantis in the Iowa caucus?

NO

Ṁ1.1k

Ṁ3.6k

Will Haley beat Trump in New Hampshire?

NO

Ṁ3.6k

FEBRUARY

Ṁ6.5k

Which team will win the Super Bowl?

100%99.7%

Kansas City Chiefs

0.0%

Philadelphia Eagles

0.0%

Cincinnati Bengals

0.1%

San Francisco 49ers

See 28 more answers

Ṁ6.5k

MARCH

Ṁ770

Will Trump appear on the presidential primary ballot in Colorado in the 2024 election?

YES

Ṁ770

Ṁ1k

Will Trump's January 6th trial begin as scheduled on March 4th?

NO

Ṁ1k

Ṁ1.8k

On the Monday before super tuesday, what probability of winning the nomination Manifold will think Donald Trump has?

100%99.0%

[80-100%)

0.2%

[0-20%)

0.1%

[20-40%)

0.2%

[40-60%)

See 1 more answer

Ṁ1.8k

Ṁ785

SUPER TUESDAY (3/5/2024) - Will trump win 11 or more of the 15 states?

YES

Ṁ785

Ṁ1.4k

Will Vladimir Putin be reelected President of Russia in March 2024?

YES

Ṁ1.4k

Ṁ730

Will Hamas lose control of Gaza strip to someone else by April?

NO

Ṁ730

APRIL

Ṁ1.2k

Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be reelected president of Ukraine?

14% chance

Ṁ1.2k

Ṁ3.6k

Will OpenAI release GPT 4.5 or GPT 5 before April 2024?

NO

Ṁ3.6k

Ṁ3.8k

Which three countries will win the most Gold medals at the 2024 Paris Olympics?

Resolved

YES

United States

Resolved

YES

China

Resolved

YES

Japan

Resolved

N/A

ROC / Russia (Not Allowed To Compete)

See 22 more answers

Ṁ3.8k

MAY

Ṁ8.1k

What film will win best picture for the 2024 Oscars?

100%99.8%

Oppenheimer

0.1%

Killers of the Flower Moon

0.0%

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

0.0%

Past Lives

See 31 more answers

Ṁ8.1k

Ṁ3k

Which team will win the 2023-2024 Premier League season?

100%99.7%

Manchester City

0.1%

Arsenal

0.0%

Manchester United

0.0%

Newcastle United

See 16 more answers

Ṁ3k

Ṁ4.4k

Who will win the Premier League 2023-2024?

100%99.3%

Manchester City

0.5%

Arsenal

0.2%

Liverpool

0.0%

Manchester United

See 3 more answers

Ṁ4.4k

Ṁ4.2k

Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?

YES

Ṁ4.2k

Ṁ9.7k

Which nominating contests will Donald Trump lose in the 2024 Republican presidential primaries and caucuses?

Resolved

NO

Iowa

Resolved

NO

New Hampshire

Resolved

NO

Nevada

Resolved

NO

Virgin Islands

See 52 more answers

Ṁ9.7k

REST OF THE YEAR

Ṁ1k

Will GPT5 be available in ChatGPT before June 30th 2024?

NO

Ṁ1k

Ṁ56k

Will China invade Taiwan by the end of 2024?

NO

Ṁ56k

NOVEMBER