2024

January

1.1k
Will Lai Ching-te be elected president of Taiwan?YES
1.1k
Will Nikki Haley beat Ron DeSantis in the Iowa caucus?NO
3.6k
Will Haley beat Trump in New Hampshire?NO

FEBRUARY

6.5k
Which team will win the Super Bowl?
100%99.7%
Kansas City Chiefs
0.0%
Philadelphia Eagles
0.0%
Cincinnati Bengals
0.1%
San Francisco 49ers
See 28 more answers

MARCH

770
Will Trump appear on the presidential primary ballot in Colorado in the 2024 election?YES
1k
Will Trump's January 6th trial begin as scheduled on March 4th?NO
1.8k
On the Monday before super tuesday, what probability of winning the nomination Manifold will think Donald Trump has?
100%99.0%
[80-100%)
0.2%
[0-20%)
0.1%
[20-40%)
0.2%
[40-60%)
See 1 more answer
785
SUPER TUESDAY (3/5/2024) - Will trump win 11 or more of the 15 states?YES
1.4k
Will Vladimir Putin be reelected President of Russia in March 2024?YES
730
Will Hamas lose control of Gaza strip to someone else by April?NO

APRIL

1.2k
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be reelected president of Ukraine?24% chance
3.6k
Will OpenAI release GPT 4.5 or GPT 5 before April 2024?NO
3.8k
Which three countries will win the most Gold medals at the 2024 Paris Olympics?
Resolved
YES
United States
Resolved
YES
China
Resolved
YES
Japan
Resolved
N/A
ROC / Russia (Not Allowed To Compete)
See 22 more answers

MAY

8.1k
What film will win best picture for the 2024 Oscars?
100%99.8%
Oppenheimer
0.1%
Killers of the Flower Moon
0.0%
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
0.0%
Past Lives
See 31 more answers
3k
Which team will win the 2023-2024 Premier League season?
100%99.7%
Manchester City
0.1%
Arsenal
0.0%
Manchester United
0.0%
Newcastle United
See 16 more answers
4.4k
Who will win the Premier League 2023-2024?
100%99.3%
Manchester City
0.5%
Arsenal
0.2%
Liverpool
0.0%
Manchester United
See 3 more answers
4.2k
Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?YES
9.7k
Which nominating contests will Donald Trump lose in the 2024 Republican presidential primaries and caucuses?
Resolved
NO
Iowa
Resolved
NO
New Hampshire
Resolved
NO
Nevada
Resolved
NO
Virgin Islands
See 52 more answers

REST OF THE YEAR

1k
Will GPT5 be available in ChatGPT before June 30th 2024?NO
56k
Will China invade Taiwan by the end of 2024?NO

NOVEMBER

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