2024

January

Will Lai Ching-te be elected president of Taiwan?YES

Will Nikki Haley beat Ron DeSantis in the Iowa caucus?NO

Will Haley beat Trump in New Hampshire?NO

FEBRUARY

Which team will win the Super Bowl?

100%99.7%

Kansas City Chiefs

0.0%

Philadelphia Eagles

0.0%

Cincinnati Bengals

0.1%

San Francisco 49ers

See 28 more answers

MARCH

Mini

Will Trump appear on the presidential primary ballot in Colorado in the 2024 election?YES

Will Trump's January 6th trial begin as scheduled on March 4th?NO

On the Monday before super tuesday, what probability of winning the nomination Manifold will think Donald Trump has?

100%99.0%

[80-100%)

0.2%

[0-20%)

0.1%

[20-40%)

0.2%

[40-60%)

See 1 more answer

Mini

SUPER TUESDAY (3/5/2024) - Will trump win 11 or more of the 15 states?YES

Will Vladimir Putin be reelected President of Russia in March 2024?YES

Mini

Will Hamas lose control of Gaza strip to someone else by April?NO

APRIL

Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be reelected president of Ukraine?48% chance

Will OpenAI release GPT 4.5 or GPT 5 before April 2024?NO

Which three countries will win the most Gold medals at the 2024 Paris Olympics?

98%

United States

94%

China

32%

France

30%

Authorized Neutral Athletes (permitted individuals from Russia/Belarus)

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MAY

What film will win best picture for the 2024 Oscars?

100%99.8%

Oppenheimer

0.1%

Killers of the Flower Moon

0.0%

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

0.0%

Past Lives

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Which team will win the 2023-2024 Premier League season?

100%99.7%

Manchester City

0.1%

Arsenal

0.0%

Manchester United

0.0%

Newcastle United

See 16 more answers

Who will win the Premier League 2023-2024?

100%99.3%

Manchester City

0.5%

Arsenal

0.2%

Liverpool

0.0%

Manchester United

See 3 more answers

Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?YES

Which nominating contests will Donald Trump lose in the 2024 Republican presidential primaries and caucuses?

Resolved

NO

Iowa

Resolved

NO

New Hampshire

Resolved

NO

Nevada

Resolved

NO

Virgin Islands

See 52 more answers

REST OF THE YEAR

Will GPT5 be available in ChatGPT before June 30th 2024?NO

Plus

Will China invade Taiwan by the end of 2024?8% chance

NOVEMBER