Impressive, worrying analysis by @MatthewBarnett:
https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=1393392907754725&id=100012520874094
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Sinclair Chenbought Ṁ1 of NOI don't have a super informed opinion of this, but this analysis doesn't contain that much info I didn't know already, and I'm not personally alarmed.
China doesn't profit that much from having Taiwan over it being independent
Nick Allenis predicting YES at 18%
@Sinclair I don't disagree, but the flip side gets me to 20%.
1.Domestic politics is impossible to read from where we are, even more than usual due to opacity of the Chinese system
2.By most accounts Xi has isolated himself from counterbalancing influences more successfully that pretty much anyone in mankind's history
3. All politics is domestic, which is what the "Plays too much Diplomacy" crowd always misses.
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YES payouts
Ṁ1,456
Ṁ1,079
Ṁ623
Ṁ434
Ṁ330
Ṁ152
Ṁ138
Ṁ136
Ṁ120
Ṁ111
Ṁ98
Ṁ97
Ṁ51
Ṁ51
Ṁ50
Ṁ40
Ṁ7
NO payouts
Ṁ910
Ṁ476
Ṁ290
Ṁ283
Ṁ246
Ṁ238
Ṁ231
Ṁ231
Ṁ225
Ṁ223
Ṁ216
Ṁ161
Ṁ156
Ṁ135
Ṁ123
Ṁ116
Ṁ84
Ṁ71
Ṁ68
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