closes Jan 1, 2025
Will China invade Taiwan by the end of 2024?
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rockenots avatar
rockenotsbought Ṁ6 of YES

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rockenots avatar
rockenotsbought Ṁ10 of YES

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Sinclair avatar
Sinclair Chenbought Ṁ1 of NOI don't have a super informed opinion of this, but this analysis doesn't contain that much info I didn't know already, and I'm not personally alarmed. China doesn't profit that much from having Taiwan over it being independent
NickAllen avatar
Nick Allenis predicting YES at 18%

@Sinclair I don't disagree, but the flip side gets me to 20%.

1.Domestic politics is impossible to read from where we are, even more than usual due to opacity of the Chinese system

2.By most accounts Xi has isolated himself from counterbalancing influences more successfully that pretty much anyone in mankind's history

3. All politics is domestic, which is what the "Plays too much Diplomacy" crowd always misses.