Will China invade Taiwan by the end of 2024? | Manifold Markets

closes Jan 1, 2025

Who does Xi think he is?Pacific Rim Taiwan

Will China invade Taiwan by the end of 2024?

16%

chance

Impressive, worrying analysis by @MatthewBarnett: https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=1393392907754725&id=100012520874094

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bought Ṁ10 of YES

bought Ṁ1 of NO

I don't have a super informed opinion of this, but this analysis doesn't contain that much info I didn't know already, and I'm not personally alarmed. China doesn't profit that much from having Taiwan over it being independent

bought Ṁ10 NO at 16%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 14% to 16%

sold Ṁ4 YES from 15% to 14%

bought Ṁ5 NO from 16% to 15%

bought Ṁ5 YES from 15% to 16%

bought Ṁ40 NO from 16% to 15%

created limit order for Ṁ400 NO at 25%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ7/Ṁ100 YES at 16% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ100 NO from 19% to 14%

bought Ṁ10 NO at 19%

bought Ṁ50 NO from 23% to 19%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ6/Ṁ200 YES at 23% (cancelled)

sold Ṁ37 YES from 33% to 21%

sold Ṁ2 NO from 32% to 33%

filled limit order Ṁ25/Ṁ25 NO at 32%

filled limit order Ṁ14/Ṁ150 YES at 37% (cancelled)

sold Ṁ6 NO from 31% to 32%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ5/Ṁ7 YES at 31% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ30 NO from 34% to 29%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 36% to 34%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 38% to 36%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ11/Ṁ11 NO at 38%

bought Ṁ55 YES from 20% to 41%

filled limit order Ṁ16/Ṁ93 NO at 20% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ10 YES from 18% to 21%

bought Ṁ40 NO from 22% to 18%

Natália Mendonça

bought Ṁ25 YES from 13% to 22%

bought Ṁ10 NO at 13%

created limit order for Ṁ500 NO at 50%

created limit order for Ṁ5,000 YES at 5%

created limit order for Ṁ300 YES at 10%

bought Ṁ5 YES from 11% to 13%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 9% to 11%

bought Ṁ10 NO at 9%

Diossley Rodriguez

bought Ṁ10 NO at 9%

sold Ṁ6 YES from 11% to 9%

created limit order for Ṁ1 YES at 11% (cancelled)

filled limit order Ṁ0/Ṁ1 YES at 11% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ10 NO at 11%

filled limit order Ṁ6/Ṁ6 NO at 11%

bought Ṁ8 NO at 12%

created limit order for Ṁ12 NO at 88% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 95% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 91% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 93% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 99.0% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 96% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 98% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 97% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 94% (cancelled)