Will OpenAI release GPT 4.5 or GPT 5 before April 2024?
resolved Apr 1

This market resolves yes if OpenAI releases a more capable LLM before April 2024. I am assuming this will be called GPT 4.5 or GPT 5, but it still counts if it has another name. A larger context window does not count, a jump like GPT 3 to GPT 3.5 does.

For this market, I am defining "release" as making the model available to end users, whether in a closed beta or a full release. So this excludes OAI employees using the model, or it being provided to Microsoft or contracted red teamers.

If no such model is released by April, this market resolves no.

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Big news!

Business Insider says it's called GPT-5, and it's expected mid year but could be delayed.

I for one do not care what it is called, just when it comes out. All the other markets I could find seem to care about what it's called so despite the fact that I hate redundant markets I just went ahead and made an independent megamarket. I'll donate the trader bonuses to MIRI lol

Megamarket has options for every month:

I think Sam's comments here are bearish, he said they'll release an amazing new model "this year" but he doesn't know what they'll call it. If he doesn't know what they'll call it, surely it's not coming out this month?

Hi everyone 🪄

3 traders bought Ṁ955 NO
bought Ṁ12 YES

I am once again linking an OAI employee dropping vague hints, and I am once again saying that we should not believe there will be a new model immediately. Eventually I will be wrong though.

I believe the latest reason people are buying yes is Greg Brockman:

I am still dubious.

@Joshua suspect he means one last feature for the day's work, not for a product release. Just talking about staying up late working generally and how coding can be addictive and satisfying.

People read into things way too much. The only last-minute features for a product release would be superficial stuff about the UI or whatever, not anything about the model itself. I don't think Greg is likely to be working on last-minute frontend bugfixes.

Well after a brief fright, I'm already once again overconfident that this isn't happening this month.

I've got the multiple choice market for fine-tuned prediction, but I like a good binary market that can be around 50/50.

And if you add up all the time buckets in my MC market, everything before June comes out to 50%! Therefore:


bought Ṁ10 YES at 33%

bro I bought into hype and bought yes at the peak 😭

These are some low effort fake leaks lol

@RemNi The search result isn’t fake, you can try it yourself (though maybe it’s down by now)

@dominic I mean openai probably didn't do that by accident

bought Ṁ40 YES

@RemNi Would you presume that their lofty censorship of the emails in the Elon blog post was deliberate too? They don't seem to have a good track record when it comes to OPSEC

@12c498e no guesses there


Market for if the cached results are real:

@Joshua so you don't think they'll release it yet?

opened a Ṁ100 NO at 40% order

@mkualquiera I've been burned too many times. There was a lot of stuff like this in December.

@Joshua link?

@mkualquiera lol this isn’t a “cached version of an announcement”, it’s hallucination

I'm thinking of these:

@mkualquiera Oops I guess I’ll eat my words 😆 . Regardless, it seems to imply the knowledge cutoff is JUNE 2024 so 🤷‍♂️

Also, the market on whether 4.5 will even be released at all before 5 is only around 60% so I’m surprised you bet this market above that value!

@benshindel the june thing just means the model solved forecasting and is able to predict future events with 100% accuracy

@mkualquiera Hmmm, I admit I can't explain the DuckDuckGo thing. Anyone have any theories?

@mkualquiera If we do believe this, is there any reason to think the June part is wrong?

@Joshua I would say it's just a placeholder that they'll change before releasing. It would hint that the release would be June at latest though ig.

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