This market resolves yes if OpenAI releases a more capable LLM before April 2024. I am assuming this will be called GPT 4.5 or GPT 5, but it still counts if it has another name. A larger context window does not count, a jump like GPT 3 to GPT 3.5 does.

For this market, I am defining "release" as making the model available to end users, whether in a closed beta or a full release. So this excludes OAI employees using the model, or it being provided to Microsoft or contracted red teamers.

If no such model is released by April, this market resolves no.

For more markets on this subject, see the Dashboard.

/Joshua/when-will-openai-broadly-release-gp
/Joshua/will-openai-release-gpt-45-or-gpt-5