On the Monday before super tuesday, what probability of winning the nomination Manifold will think Donald Trump has?
43
353
Ṁ12kṀ1.8k
resolved Mar 6
1D
1W
1M
ALL
100%99.0%
[80-100%)
0.2%
[0-20%)
0.1%
[20-40%)
0.2%
[40-60%)
0.5%
[60-80%)
This market will resolve to the probability in the previous day to the super tuesday of Trump's probability of winning the republican presidential nomination.
The fields are [0,20%), [20%,40%)...
I may close this market to 0-20% early if the main market is resolved to NO ahead of time, because Trump isn't running or unable to run (unable to run beyond doubt! Like death)
I won't bet
I'll use a average throughout the day of the following market (São Paulo time): /BruceGrugett/will-donald-trump-be-the-republican
I reserve myself in the right of changing the original market, if I think there are other markets with significantly more volume on the same subject.
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