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@strutheo resolves USA, China, Japan

Why is Australia polling as “third” . By my assessment France and UK are still vying for third place

Feel free to bet those up!

Australia has more GOLD medals.

Omg 🤣

Does this resolve YES for the top 3 in the medal table (ties in golds resolved using silver and bronze), or could it resolve YES for more than 3 countries if there are ties in numbers of golds?

I'll find a way to do ties if there are

Can we know what this way will be? @strutheo

I'd recommend just resolving both countries to 50% (or 3 to 33 if three-way tie)? That seems most intuitive.

Ok

Come on everyone. There's still a few more swimming medals up for grabs. I'm practically throwing mana away here!

The US is currently in 7th. Lots of medals, but mostly not gold.

In Tokyo the top 3 ended up with 39, 38, 27 gold medals. The US has had an unlucky start but I seriously doubt anyone but China could come out ahead of them at the end.

reminder to check out the top 10 version too

/strutheo/which-ten-countries-will-win-the-mo

edit: actually it’s just a link, lol I got confused

@strutheo will the three teams within the top three all resolve to 100%?

Betting markets apparently really don't like my idea about France, I've seen both over/under lines and athlete by athlete projections putting France in third.

WIth over9000 new swimming events, Australia will get a lot of golds, the only problem is doping from China.

It's very pleasant to make little five mana bets until the curve exactly matches a dumb model I knocked together in ten minutes ☺️

And then someone comes along and slams a big limit order to foil the joy. But hey, that's at least liquidity!

O

GB is much higher in recent Olympics than France, 25ish to 10ish. France is hosting. But, Japan doubled its medal count when it hosted in "2020", but GB only added five medals to the average in 2012, and Brazil got 7 in 2016 (when it hosted) and in 2020. So, I don't think France is likely to do better than double up.

I haven't fully looked through distance to Olympics' effects on medals, but France and GB are pretty close. I expect a good year for GB.

bump - getting close

version with top 10 -> https://manifold.markets/strutheo/which-ten-countries-will-win-the-mo