🥇Which three countries will win the most Gold medals at the 2024 Paris Olympics?
Basic
295
161k
resolved Aug 12
Resolved
YES
United States
Resolved
YES
China
Resolved
YES
Japan
Resolved
N/A
ROC / Russia (Not Allowed To Compete)
Resolved
NO
Great Britain
Resolved
NO
Germany
Resolved
NO
France
Resolved
NO
Cuba
Resolved
NO
Canada
Resolved
NO
Italy
Resolved
NO
Hungary
Resolved
NO
Spain
Resolved
NO
Netherlands
Resolved
NO
Brazil
Resolved
NO
New Zealand
Resolved
NO
South Korea
Resolved
NO
Poland
Resolved
NO
Czechia
Resolved
NO
Kenya
Resolved
NO
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@strutheo resolves USA, China, Japan

Why is Australia polling as “third” . By my assessment France and UK are still vying for third place

Feel free to bet those up!

Australia has more GOLD medals.

Omg 🤣

Does this resolve YES for the top 3 in the medal table (ties in golds resolved using silver and bronze), or could it resolve YES for more than 3 countries if there are ties in numbers of golds?

I'll find a way to do ties if there are

Can we know what this way will be? @strutheo

opened a Ṁ150 Answer #018db79cec75 YES at 41% order

I'd recommend just resolving both countries to 50% (or 3 to 33 if three-way tie)? That seems most intuitive.

Ok

opened a Ṁ300 Answer #018db79cec75 NO at 39% order

Come on everyone. There's still a few more swimming medals up for grabs. I'm practically throwing mana away here!

United States
bought Ṁ8 United States NO

The US is currently in 7th. Lots of medals, but mostly not gold.

In Tokyo the top 3 ended up with 39, 38, 27 gold medals. The US has had an unlucky start but I seriously doubt anyone but China could come out ahead of them at the end.

reminder to check out the top 10 version too

/strutheo/which-ten-countries-will-win-the-mo

edit: actually it’s just a link, lol I got confused

@strutheo will the three teams within the top three all resolve to 100%?

bought Ṁ50 Great Britain NO

Betting markets apparently really don't like my idea about France, I've seen both over/under lines and athlete by athlete projections putting France in third.

bought Ṁ50 Answer #018db79cec75 YES

WIth over9000 new swimming events, Australia will get a lot of golds, the only problem is doping from China.

bought Ṁ7 Germany YES

It's very pleasant to make little five mana bets until the curve exactly matches a dumb model I knocked together in ten minutes ☺️

And then someone comes along and slams a big limit order to foil the joy. But hey, that's at least liquidity!

reposted

O

GB is much higher in recent Olympics than France, 25ish to 10ish. France is hosting. But, Japan doubled its medal count when it hosted in "2020", but GB only added five medals to the average in 2012, and Brazil got 7 in 2016 (when it hosted) and in 2020. So, I don't think France is likely to do better than double up.

I haven't fully looked through distance to Olympics' effects on medals, but France and GB are pretty close. I expect a good year for GB.

reposted

bump - getting close