🥇Which three countries will win the most Gold medals at the 2024 Paris Olympics?
295
3.8kṀ160k
resolved Aug 12
Resolved
YES
United States
Resolved
YES
China
Resolved
YES
Japan
Resolved
N/A
ROC / Russia (Not Allowed To Compete)
Resolved
NO
Great Britain
Resolved
NO
Germany
Resolved
NO
France
Resolved
NO
Cuba
Resolved
NO
Canada
Resolved
NO
Italy
Resolved
NO
Hungary
Resolved
NO
Spain
Resolved
NO
Netherlands
Resolved
NO
Brazil
Resolved
NO
New Zealand
Resolved
NO
South Korea
Resolved
NO
Poland
Resolved
NO
Czechia
Resolved
NO
Kenya
Resolved
NO
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8mo

@strutheo resolves USA, China, Japan

9mo

Why is Australia polling as “third” . By my assessment France and UK are still vying for third place

9mo

9mo

Feel free to bet those up!

9mo

Australia has more GOLD medals.

9mo

Omg 🤣

9mo

Does this resolve YES for the top 3 in the medal table (ties in golds resolved using silver and bronze), or could it resolve YES for more than 3 countries if there are ties in numbers of golds?

9mo

I'll find a way to do ties if there are

9mo

Can we know what this way will be? @strutheo

opened a Ṁ150 YES at 41% order9mo

I'd recommend just resolving both countries to 50% (or 3 to 33 if three-way tie)? That seems most intuitive.

9mo

Ok

opened a Ṁ300 NO at 39% order9mo

Come on everyone. There's still a few more swimming medals up for grabs. I'm practically throwing mana away here!

bought Ṁ8 NO9mo

The US is currently in 7th. Lots of medals, but mostly not gold.

9mo

In Tokyo the top 3 ended up with 39, 38, 27 gold medals. The US has had an unlucky start but I seriously doubt anyone but China could come out ahead of them at the end.

9mo

reminder to check out the top 10 version too

/strutheo/which-ten-countries-will-win-the-mo

edit: actually it’s just a link, lol I got confused

9mo

@strutheo will the three teams within the top three all resolve to 100%?

bought Ṁ50 NO9mo

Betting markets apparently really don't like my idea about France, I've seen both over/under lines and athlete by athlete projections putting France in third.

bought Ṁ50 YES9mo

WIth over9000 new swimming events, Australia will get a lot of golds, the only problem is doping from China.

bought Ṁ7 YES9mo

It's very pleasant to make little five mana bets until the curve exactly matches a dumb model I knocked together in ten minutes ☺️

9mo

And then someone comes along and slams a big limit order to foil the joy. But hey, that's at least liquidity!

reposted 9mo

O

10mo

GB is much higher in recent Olympics than France, 25ish to 10ish. France is hosting. But, Japan doubled its medal count when it hosted in "2020", but GB only added five medals to the average in 2012, and Brazil got 7 in 2016 (when it hosted) and in 2020. So, I don't think France is likely to do better than double up.

I haven't fully looked through distance to Olympics' effects on medals, but France and GB are pretty close. I expect a good year for GB.

reposted 11mo

bump - getting close

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