Which nominating contests will Donald Trump lose in the 2024 Republican presidential primaries and caucuses?
Basic
85
481k
Jul 4
1%
Puerto Rico
1%
Wyoming
1.1%
Pennsylvania
0.2%
Connecticut
1%
Indiana
1%
West Virginia
1.1%
Maryland
1.1%
Nebraska
1%
Kentucky
1%
Oregon
1.1%
Montana
1%
New Jersey
1%
New Mexico
1.1%
South Dakota

This market uses the new Unlinked Multiple Choice format. The probabilites of each answer are independent of the other answers; individual answers can resolve early, while the market as a whole remains open.

Each contest resolves according to Wikipedia and/or reliable news reports. A contest resolves NO if Donald Trump is the unique winner of the most delegates from that contest; resolves YES if someone other than Donald Trump is the unique winner of the most delegates; and to PROB 100/N% if N candidates, including Donald Trump, all get equal numbers of delegates.

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bought Ṁ10 Answer #688e1e192e26 YES

Finally Haley wins something! History made: Haley is the first woman to ever win a Republican presidential primary.

bought Ṁ70 Answer #daa1c1961ccd NO

This has basically turned into an interest rates market

reposted

Apparently the early primary calendar is more stretched out than usual, potentially leading to some interesting dynamics!

This should go Iowa, Utah, Georgia, then in reverse chronological order (assuming Trump is much less likely to win primaries if he's jailed or convicted midway). None should be above 40.

This must have been an expensive market to create

@cc6 M1400!

Well we've got some naive base rates set, interested to see where these all end up!