Which nominating contests will Donald Trump lose in the 2024 Republican presidential primaries and caucuses?
85
9.7kṀ480kresolved Jul 10
Resolved
NOIowa
Resolved
NONew Hampshire
Resolved
NONevada
Resolved
NOVirgin Islands
Resolved
NOSouth Carolina
Resolved
NOMichigan
Resolved
NOIdaho
Resolved
NOMissouri
Resolved
YESDC
Resolved
NOOklahoma
Resolved
NONorth Carolina
Resolved
NOTennessee
Resolved
NOVirginia
Resolved
NOMaine
Resolved
YESVermont
Resolved
NONorth Dakota
Resolved
NOAlabama
Resolved
NOAlaska
Resolved
NOArkansas
Resolved
NOCalifornia
This market uses the new Unlinked Multiple Choice format. The probabilites of each answer are independent of the other answers; individual answers can resolve early, while the market as a whole remains open.
Each contest resolves according to Wikipedia and/or reliable news reports. A contest resolves NO if Donald Trump is the unique winner of the most delegates from that contest; resolves YES if someone other than Donald Trump is the unique winner of the most delegates; and to PROB 100/N% if N candidates, including Donald Trump, all get equal numbers of delegates.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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