This market uses the new Unlinked Multiple Choice format. The probabilites of each answer are independent of the other answers; individual answers can resolve early, while the market as a whole remains open.
Each contest resolves according to Wikipedia and/or reliable news reports. A contest resolves NO if Donald Trump is the unique winner of the most delegates from that contest; resolves YES if someone other than Donald Trump is the unique winner of the most delegates; and to PROB 100/N% if N candidates, including Donald Trump, all get equal numbers of delegates.
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🏅 Top traders
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| 5 | Ṁ136 |
Finally Haley wins something! History made: Haley is the first woman to ever win a Republican presidential primary.
Apparently the early primary calendar is more stretched out than usual, potentially leading to some interesting dynamics!