resolved Jan 24

Very straightforward, will she get more votes in the primary in New Hampshire.

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She conceded. Resolving now.


The needle is not up yet, I will declare that this Very Likely Trump.

@Joshua Anyone want to put up a limit order on yes?

@Joshua I'm confused. Most of today it was at 5%, now it went down to 2%. No new information has come out in favour of Trump, and if anything Hayley is doing pretty well amongst the first 13% though idk if it's representative

@CelebratedWhale Not well enough

@CelebratedWhale Not representative because vote sampling is not Gaussian, but it is going to be really interesting if there is only a -6% spread as opposed to what it is supposed to be at 20%

@CelebratedWhale on the upside, that means it's a wildly lucrative time to buy yes shares if you're optimistic

@shankypanky Ya I now have 200 on yes hope I did not mess up

@CelebratedWhale Lol and sold

2 traders bought Ṁ43 YES

@Tumbles 6 votes down... 🚀

@shankypanky Is there a reason they haven't called it yet? Statistically, she's already president

@Tumbles all in for a Monarchy at this stage tbh

@Tumbles 2024 ushers in the era of the Dictatehership

At 5%, it means she just need to roll a natural 20 to beat Trump, right? Seems possible.

i get it, i agree with it, this seems low for an open primary. weirder things have happened.

Question is do Ron’s votes go to Nikki or Trump?

This market seems to think Trump

predicted NO

@AaronBailey He endorsed Trump. If his dropping out were going to be unfavorable to the person he dropped out to endorse, it would seem to be unstrategic to do so in the first place.

@BoltonBailey Ya I just saw that. Missed that initially.

@AaronBailey I think the reason Haley's odds went from ~30% to ~6% is because

  • Trump won by 30+ in IA, so a polling error in NH is less likely

  • Ramaswamy and DeSantis dropping out + endorsing Trump make the expected margin go from ~Trump +5 to ~Trump +15

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