Related questions
Arbitrage opportunity with https://manifold.markets/wilsonkime/trump-is-republican-nominee-x-repub which has 11% chance of Trump not the nominee compared to 3% here
My fault, the hehes sent multiple times.
@nsokolsky Or if Congress passes legislation to enforce 14th Amendment
https://manifold.markets/Snarflak/will-congress-disqualify-trump-from?r=U25hcmZsYWs
Always frightening to be betting against @MarcusAbramovitch. But it seems this market should move.
@MP as a general rule, you shouldn't fear betting against me. if you saw how care free i was at throwing mana around...
But also, say i have limit orders up, those are mostly there passively and therefore, if news happens, you can just take them, it's not like I can use any special forecasting skills.
Or if i accumulate a large position, that's because at that time, i thought that the market price wasn't correct. But if an event occurs that change the probability, i usually can't get our of my bet
https://www.natesilver.net/p/nikki-haley-could-be-the-new-john
We’ve reached the point where the nominee being someone other than Trump would be perhaps the most surprising development in the history of the presidential primaries.
https://abcnews.go.com/538/donald-trumps-lead-gop-primary-insurmountable/story?id=105661719
There is still a chance that the polls are wrong or that history does not serve as a guide to the 2024 primary. Unknown variables range from whether Trump will be convicted of a felony before officially being nominated in July, to how long his leading opponents will stay in the race and whether Republican voters start to worry that Trump might be "unelectable" in a general election.
But the impacts of these events feel tiny compared to Trump's current commanding lead. Four months ago, he looked like an obvious leader, but not a foregone conclusion. Now, the hopes for his competition lie on a once-in-a-generation political comeback. Do any of them have what it takes?
Donald trump -: Trump maintains a massive primary lead: Trump leads DeSantis by 48 percentage points among potential Republican primary voters (63% to 15%) just days after he received record-high support of 65%. Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley is in third place with 8% support, followed closely by entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, who has 7% backing.
Trump is leading Biden: Trump leads Biden by 2 points in a hypothetical general election matchup (44% to 42%). This past week marks the longest period in which the former president has held a continuous, albeit narrow lead over the Democratic incumbent, who has strong backing for re-nomination following Rep. Dean Phillips’ (D-Minn.) campaign launch.
@JacksonWagner Bettors beware: this market is the old parimutuel market type, which means that the payout that you get is not fixed
@neweconomicplan he needs to be officially nominated, so this resolves YES after the convention I would say and NO after election day
@n1psey i’ve been burned by too many markets to blindly accept the obvious explanation of the answer. But also, the question text assumes a single nominee,