Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?
35%
chance
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rockenots avatar
rockenotsbought Ṁ8 of YES

Easy arb:

Gigacasting avatar
Gigacastingis predicting YES at 32%

People distrust DeSantis more than they dislike Trump.

Gigacasting avatar
Gigacastingis predicting YES at 32%

Despite his flaws:

Gabrielle avatar
Gabriellesold Ṁ122 of YES

The midterm results are looking bad for Trump - DeSantis won his race by a wide margin and a lot of “Trump-y” candidates across the nation did poorly. (Which, to be clear, is not necessarily a shift towards being moderate, just a shift away from being associated with Trump.)