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2025
97%
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maybe bill gates steps up and pays trump $3 billion to drop out of the race

bought Ṁ10 NO at 99.3%

Arbitrage opportunity with https://manifold.markets/wilsonkime/trump-is-republican-nominee-x-repub which has 11% chance of Trump not the nominee compared to 3% here

hehe.

hehe.

My fault, the hehes sent multiple times.

bought Ṁ10 YES at 95%

Will trump being elected worsen democracy in the US?

Made a time sensitive version of the question, for the Yglesias prediction category (reasoning inside why it's not just a duplicate):

How would this market resolve if Trump is the official party nominee but then he's disqualified by the Supreme Court and someone else runs on the ballot instead?

predicts YES

W

Always frightening to be betting against @MarcusAbramovitch. But it seems this market should move.

bought Ṁ200 YES from 83% to 84%
predicts YES

@MP based no what? also happy for you to slam into my limit orders and then tell me

predicts NO

@MarcusAbramovitch 14th amendment train is leaving the station

2 traders bought Ṁ200 YES
predicts YES

@MP as a general rule, you shouldn't fear betting against me. if you saw how care free i was at throwing mana around...

But also, say i have limit orders up, those are mostly there passively and therefore, if news happens, you can just take them, it's not like I can use any special forecasting skills.
Or if i accumulate a large position, that's because at that time, i thought that the market price wasn't correct. But if an event occurs that change the probability, i usually can't get our of my bet

predicts YES

https://www.natesilver.net/p/nikki-haley-could-be-the-new-john

We’ve reached the point where the nominee being someone other than Trump would be perhaps the most surprising development in the history of the presidential primaries.

bought Ṁ1,000 YES from 86% to 88%

https://abcnews.go.com/538/donald-trumps-lead-gop-primary-insurmountable/story?id=105661719

There is still a chance that the polls are wrong or that history does not serve as a guide to the 2024 primary. Unknown variables range from whether Trump will be convicted of a felony before officially being nominated in July, to how long his leading opponents will stay in the race and whether Republican voters start to worry that Trump might be "unelectable" in a general election.

But the impacts of these events feel tiny compared to Trump's current commanding lead. Four months ago, he looked like an obvious leader, but not a foregone conclusion. Now, the hopes for his competition lie on a once-in-a-generation political comeback. Do any of them have what it takes?

bought Ṁ1,000 YES from 86% to 87%

Big liquidity at Polymarket

Big limit orders on Yes at 80-81%

Donald trump -: Trump maintains a massive primary lead: Trump leads DeSantis by 48 percentage points among potential Republican primary voters (63% to 15%) just days after he received record-high support of 65%. Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley is in third place with 8% support, followed closely by entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, who has 7% backing. 

Trump is leading Biden: Trump leads Biden by 2 points in a hypothetical general election matchup (44% to 42%). This past week marks the longest period in which the former president has held a continuous, albeit narrow lead over the Democratic incumbent, who has strong backing for re-nomination following Rep. Dean Phillips’ (D-Minn.) campaign launch.

predicts NO

@JacksonWagner Bettors beware: this market is the old parimutuel market type, which means that the payout that you get is not fixed

May God give Trump the strength to continue His fight for the nomination battling the evil spirits of the Biden crime mafia and the devil incarnate Letitia James so He can save our great nation from the depths of fiery hell it is in now.

predicts YES

💀

This market needs clarification. Does he need to be the nominee on election day, or does he need to be the official nominee for a day? Does he need to appear on the ballots in a state as the republican candidate? There are some edge cases here.

predicts YES

@neweconomicplan he needs to be officially nominated, so this resolves YES after the convention I would say and NO after election day

@n1psey i’ve been burned by too many markets to blindly accept the obvious explanation of the answer. But also, the question text assumes a single nominee,

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