Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be reelected president of Ukraine?
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123
9.3k
2025
50%
chance

Election takes place March 31, 2024.

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bought Ṁ50 NO

I think its unlikely that he will run for president after the war (regardless of outcome), and I don't think they will hold elections during martial law (since they already postponed it for that reason)

predicts YES

If the election is delayed this market will stay open until it takes place and a winner is determined.

Good question: what if there are no elections in March?

predicts NO

@bfdc I've sorta been assuming the close time will be extended until the question can be resolved? @BTE you wanna weigh in?

Internal polling seen by The Economist suggests the president, once lauded for his role in defending the country, has been tarnished by corruption scandals in his government and by concern over the direction of the country. The figures, which date from mid-November, show trust in the president has fallen to a net +32%, less than half that of the still revered General Mr Zaluzhny (+70%). Ukraine’s spychief, Kyrylo Budanov, also has better ratings than the president (+45%).

The same polling suggests Mr Zelensky risks losing a presidential election were he ever to go head to head with his commander-in-chief. Ukrainian society would probably not welcome any unprovoked challenge. For now, eight out of ten Ukrainians are against the very idea of holding elections, originally due next March. The president has also ruled them out, citing martial law. But the downward drift of his ratings may yet persuade him to change his mind. Russian propaganda will doubtless make hay if the elections do not take place.

https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/11/28/russia-is-poised-to-take-advantage-of-political-splits-in-ukraine

predicts YES

Election takes place March 31, 2024.

What if the election does not take place on March 31, 2024 and is delayed by several months or years? It's a real possibility right now.