Tumbles Financial Complex (RIP)
Post-Collapse Markets:
93%
OpenAI models released to the public
85%
Fortnights
81%
Months
50%
New loans taken (since this market's creation, only counts loans created while a loan is due)
Pre-Collapse Stuff for Posterity:
Statement regarding the current status of my account: https://manifold.markets/Tumbles/will-tumbles-ever-be-late-to-pay-ba#i16krm26kwl
100%99.2%
Tumbles is late to pay back a loan before 2027
0.0%
Favorable outcome from April 2025 Canadian election betting
0.1%
Favorable outcomes from future betting
0.0%
Still in a P2P loan debt spiral
Banks and Other Mana Services
🦝RISK Credit Report
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Fion's Loans
Ṁ0 bounty
Ṁ0
Ṁ100
More Tumbles Financial Complex
100%99.2%
Tumbles is late, Canada does not enter a recession.
0.2%
Tumbles is never late, Canada enters a recession.
0.6%
Tumbles is never late, Canada does not enter a recession.
0.0%
Tumbles is late, Canada enters a recession.
95%
Tumbles will quit Manifold before repaying the loan
98%
Tumbles will not pay it off in full before 2027
Resolved
NOTumbles will not pay any of it off before 2026
Resolved
NOTumbles will have to pay it off in some form, and will be late on a payment before 2026
100%99.0%
Other PM, Tumbles is late to pay back a loan
0.0%
Pierre Poilievre is PM, Tumbles is late to pay back a loan
0.0%
Pierre Poilievre is PM, Tumbles is NOT late to pay back a loan
1.0%
Other PM, Tumbles is NOT late to pay back a loan
100%99.0%
Tumbles will not successfully pay off all of his loans (on time) 🪦
0.2%
Yes, his net worth will be greater 👑
0.8%
No, his net poker losses will be greater 💀
Other Adjacent Markets
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