Tumbles Financial Complex

Check out the official Tumbles Financial Complex Shareholder's Report for November

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Will Tumbles be late to pay back a loan?12% chance
Basic
If @Tumbles is late to pay back a loan, will Canada enter a recession? (2024)
14%
Tumbles is never late, Canada enters a recession.
77%
Tumbles is never late, Canada does not enter a recession.
1.8%
Tumbles is late, Canada enters a recession.
7%
Tumbles is late, Canada does not enter a recession.
Basic
Will Tumbles succeed in restructuring or bailing out the Tumbles Financial Complex?74% chance
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What will be true of Manifold's "loan" to Tumbles?
46%
Tumbles will not pay any of it off before 2026
32%
Tumbles will have to pay it off in some form, and will be late on a payment before 2026
7%
Manifold will "loan" at least á¹€1,000,000 more to Tumbles before 2026
12%
Tumbles will lose it all before 2026 (profits between now and 12/31/2025 is < á¹€-1,400,000)
See 5 more answers
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During which month will Tumbles be late to pay back a loan?
5%
January
0.9%
February
0.6%
March
0.6%
April
See 9 more answers
Basic
When Tumbles pays his loans off, will his net worth be greater than his poker losses?
5%
Yes, his net worth will be greater 👑
86%
No, his net poker losses will be greater 💀
9%
Tumbles will not successfully pay off all of his loans (on time) 🪦
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Conditional on who wins the democratic nomination will tumbles ever be late to pay back a loan
0.5%
Biden wins the nomination tumbles is never late
0.2%
Biden wins the nomination tumbles is late
88%
Someone besides Biden wins the nomination tumbles is never late
11%
Someone besides Biden wins tumbles is late
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Depending on the POTUS election winner, will @Tumbles be late to pay back a loan (before EOY)?
100%98%
Donald Trump wins the election, Tumbles isn't late on a loan this year
1.8%
Donald Trump wins the election, Tumbles is late on a loan this year
0.0%
Joe Biden wins the election, Tumbles is late on a loan this year
0.5%
Joe Biden wins the election, Tumbles isn't late on a loan this year
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How much debt will @Tumbles have at the end of 2024?
100%84%
á¹€1,600,000
0.1%
á¹€100,000
0.1%
á¹€200,000
0.2%
á¹€300,000
See 14 more answers
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Tumbles Financial Complex Interest Rate Forecasting (2024-ish, medium term loans)
60%
APR (linear)
70%
>= 50%
46%
>= 60%
16%
>= 70%
See 1 more answer

Adjacent Markets

Basic
@Tumbles Meme Stock ($TMS)á¹€363
Basic
Will peer to peer mana loans collateralized in real money equivalents be banned before 2025?NO
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Will another unofficial mana financial service/product ran by users be shut down by Manifold by EOY 2026?74% chance
Basic
Will Tumbles bask in the presence of Mira's divine intelligence before 2028?74% chance
Basic
Will Tumbles punch someone before Joe Biden dies?14% chance
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Which of Tumbles, Mira, or Strutheo will go to space first?
6%
Tumbles will be the first to space
25%
Mira will be the first to space
5%
Strutheo will be the first to space
64%
No one goes to space
Basic
Will Tumbles reach Platinum in the Melee ranked ladder before Christmas?NO
Was it a mistake by Manifold to give/loan Tumbles 1.4M mana?POLL
Yes
No
Not sure
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@Tumbles Credit Score MarketYES

Banks and Other Mana Services

Fion's Micro-Loans!á¹€0 bounty
á¹€0
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