Popular Vote

Swing States

Harris

Trump

Israel

OpenAI

US Congress

AGI Timelines

Biden

Bitcoin

Taylor Swift

Elon/Tesla

Tim Walz

Sama Drama

JD Vance

AI Math

Fed Rates

Nvidia

Twitter

ACX 2024 

One Piece

Music AI Race

Hard Forkasts

Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?
https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n

'/nathanpmyoung/will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n':10 '2024':5 'biden':2 'democrat':6 'manifold.markets':9 'manifold.markets/nathanpmyoung/will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n':8 'nomine':7

Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-joe-biden-win-the-2024-us-pres

'/larsdoucet/will-joe-biden-win-the-2024-us-pres':12 '2024':6 'biden':3 'elect':9 'joe':2 'manifold.markets':11 'manifold.markets/larsdoucet/will-joe-biden-win-the-2024-us-pres':10 'presidenti':8 'us':7 'win':4

Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-ai-be-a-major-topic-during-the

'/matthewbarnett/will-ai-be-a-major-topic-during-the':18 '2024':9 'ai':2 'debat':11 'major':5 'manifold.markets':17 'manifold.markets/matthewbarnett/will-ai-be-a-major-topic-during-the':16 'presidenti':10 'state':15 'topic':6 'unit':14

Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?
https://manifold.markets/BruceGrugett/will-donald-trump-be-the-republican

'/brucegrugett/will-donald-trump-be-the-republican':14 '2024':11 'donald':2 'manifold.markets':13 'manifold.markets/brucegrugett/will-donald-trump-be-the-republican':12 'nomine':7 'presid':9 'republican':6 'trump':3

Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by 2025? https://manifold.markets/Austin/will-an-ai-get-gold-on-any-internat

'/austin/will-an-ai-get-gold-on-any-internat':15 '2025':12 'ai':3 'get':4 'gold':5 'intern':8 'manifold.markets':14 'manifold.markets/austin/will-an-ai-get-gold-on-any-internat':13 'math':9 'olympiad':10

When will tuberculosis kill less than 1 million people a year? https://manifold.markets/AlexbGoode/when-will-tuberculosis-kill-less-th

'/alexbgoode/when-will-tuberculosis-kill-less-th':14 '1':7 'kill':4 'less':5 'manifold.markets':13 'manifold.markets/alexbgoode/when-will-tuberculosis-kill-less-th':12 'million':8 'peopl':9 'tuberculosi':3 'year':11

Will the Bank of England raise the UK's interest rate at their 2nd November meeting? https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson/will-the-bank-of-england-raise-the-e2de754262d5

'/simongrayson/will-the-bank-of-england-raise-the-e2de754262d5':19 '2nd':14 'bank':3 'england':5 'interest':10 'manifold.markets':18 'manifold.markets/simongrayson/will-the-bank-of-england-raise-the-e2de754262d5':17 'meet':16 'novemb':15 'rais':6 'rate':11 'uk':8

If Hezbollah/Lebanon invade Israel, will the US Military get involved? https://manifold.markets/ShakedKoplewitz/if-hezbollahlebanon-invade-israel-w

'/shakedkoplewitz/if-hezbollahlebanon-invade-israel-w':13 'get':9 'hezbollah/lebanon':2 'invad':3 'involv':10 'israel':4 'manifold.markets':12 'manifold.markets/shakedkoplewitz/if-hezbollahlebanon-invade-israel-w':11 'militari':8 'us':7

Which party will gain votes in the 2024 European Parliament election? https://manifold.markets/marketwise/which-party-will-gain-votes-in-the

'/marketwise/which-party-will-gain-votes-in-the':14 '2024':8 'elect':11 'european':9 'gain':4 'manifold.markets':13 'manifold.markets/marketwise/which-party-will-gain-votes-in-the':12 'parliament':10 'parti':2 'vote':5

After the war in Ukraine ends, which of the following regions will be held by Ukraine (unlinked free response)? https://manifold.markets/Shump/after-the-war-in-ukraine-ends-which

'/shump/after-the-war-in-ukraine-ends-which':22 'end':6 'follow':10 'free':18 'held':14 'manifold.markets':21 'manifold.markets/shump/after-the-war-in-ukraine-ends-which':20 'region':11 'respons':19 'ukrain':5,16 'unlink':17 'war':3

If Lantern Bioworks successfully recreates BCS3-L1, will 10,000+ people receive the cavity prevention treatment by 2030? https://manifold.markets/jcb/if-lantern-bioworks-successfully-re

'/jcb/if-lantern-bioworks-successfully-re':22 '000':11 '10':10 '2030':19 'bcs3':7 'bcs3-l1':6 'biowork':3 'caviti':15 'l1':8 'lantern':2 'manifold.markets':21 'manifold.markets/jcb/if-lantern-bioworks-successfully-re':20 'peopl':12 'prevent':16 'receiv':13 'recreat':5 'success':4 'treatment':17

Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2023? https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-isreal-and-lebanon-go-to-war-i

'/haws/will-isreal-and-lebanon-go-to-war-i':12 '2023':9 'go':5 'israel':2 'lebanon/hezbollah':4 'manifold.markets':11 'manifold.markets/haws/will-isreal-and-lebanon-go-to-war-i':10 'war':7

First year after 1945 when USA is officially at war again? https://manifold.markets/JuJumper/first-year-after-1945-when-usa-is-o

'/jujumper/first-year-after-1945-when-usa-is-o':14 '1945':4 'first':1 'manifold.markets':13 'manifold.markets/jujumper/first-year-after-1945-when-usa-is-o':12 'offici':8 'usa':6 'war':10 'year':2

This dashboard tracks the markets that have been subsidized as part of 

PI