Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria)
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17K
6.8K
Nov 6
35%
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This question resolves to YES if during at least one of the main (non-VP) 2024 general presidential election debates in the United States, the moderator asks at least two separate questions directly related to artificial intelligence, such as the potential for job losses due to AI automation, or existential risk from AI. This question also resolves to YES if AI is otherwise brought up by a candidate in the context of a question unrelated to AI and ALL candidates talk about AI at least once during the same debate, with at least one of the candidates saying "AI", "artificial intelligence", "robots" or a close synonym at least three separate times, at least five seconds apart, during the same debate. Otherwise, this question resolves to NO.

Asking "at least two separate questions" means that the moderator must pose two semantically distinct and individual queries, each intended to elicit a unique response, specifically about artificial intelligence. In other words, simply repeating the same question doesn't count as two separate questions, even if the question is asked twice, first to one candidate, and then a second time to the other candidate. Moreover, asking two distinct questions without waiting for the answer to the first one counts as two separate questions for the purpose of this question. For example, a clear positive instance would be asking first, "How do you plan to manage the existential risks from AI?" and then later asking, "What are your proposals to mitigate job loss due to automation from AI?" These are two separate questions because they cover different facets of artificial intelligence—existential risk and employment. A clear negative example would be if the moderator simply asked, "How do you plan to manage the existential risks from AI?" to one candidate, and then later said "Same question to you" to the other candidate. Even though the question is asked twice, it's not considered two "separate" questions because it's a repetition of the same query.

When it comes to questions related to automation and job losses, the key factor that determines whether the question is "directly related to artificial intelligence" is whether the moderator mentions AI technologies or AI companies, such as ChatGPT, OpenAI, generative AI, or neural networks; any question will automatically qualify if the moderator says the word "AI" or "artificial intelligence" in the question. General questions about automation or job losses that don't clearly link back to AI won't be considered "directly related to artificial intelligence". For example, the following questions would NOT count as being directly related to artificial intelligence:

  1. "How will your administration address the growing issue of job losses due to technological advances?" — Too broad; doesn't specify AI.

  2. "What are your plans for helping workers displaced by automation?" — Not specific to AI; includes all automation.

If there are no 2024 general presidential election debates, this question resolves to N/A.

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When will they debate?

If you only consider the salience of AI in politics currently, this seems overpriced.

But the NO buyers fail to consider More Moore’s Law: overtime, the hype for AI tends to grow exponentially.

bought Ṁ2,000 NO from 36% to 33%

Note to predictors: I am considering adding the following paragraph clarifying when a compound question (i.e. a question containing multiple parts) counts as "two separate questions directly related to artificial intelligence". If you have strong opinions about this change, please reply to this comment, and I will take your comments into account when deciding to make this change. I will not make any changes to the question until at least 48 hours have elapsed since I posted this comment.

Proposed additional paragraph: Regarding compound questions—those that integrate multiple inquiries into a single prompt by the moderator—to qualify as "two separate questions", at least two separate segments in the compound question must address different facets of concerns within the broad spectrum of artificial intelligence, intended to elicit two distinct responses, even if the question is a single sentence. This means that at least two parts of the question must cover separate and conceptually distinct categories of risks or concerns from AI. These conceptually distinct categories include but are not limited to concerns about job losses from AI, existential risk from AI, national security risks from AI, and concerns about granting AIs legal rights. In my sole judgement, I will determine whether any candidate compound question meets these criteria to the best of my abilities.

@MatthewBarnett Seems reasonable, but would be helpful if you have some YES and NO examples.

“different facets of concerns” - it has to be different types of concerns? What if there’s a compound question that is part about how likely a concern is and a second part about best policies? (Especially if it’s only referred to abstractly like “all risks from AI”)

@MatthewBarnett Isn’t this already covered by this bit?

Moreover, asking two distinct questions without waiting for the answer to the first one counts as two separate questions for the purpose of this question. For example, a clear positive instance would be asking first, "How do you plan to manage the existential risks from AI?" and then later asking, "What are your proposals to mitigate job loss due to automation from AI?" These are two separate questions because they cover different facets of artificial intelligence—existential risk and employment

@NicoDelon I think it's nice to make things as unambiguous as possible. The paragraph you quoted doesn't really touch on compound questions.

@MatthewBarnett I'm not sure I see the difference. For the separate segments of the compound question to count they would have to be practically like separate questions. Unless you're trying to make the criterion of this market even easier to meet, which I don't think you should, I don't see any upside to this addition.

This market is absurdly overpriced. No AI questions were asked in the Republican debates.

2 traders bought Ṁ260 NO

@nikki 💯. That’s mainly due to one guy.

@NicoDelon if the market seems overpriced and you have a good explanation (viz. one irrational guy), you should correct the market price!

@ZachSteinPerlman not that easy - there are large limit orders

@ZachSteinPerlman

irrational

Your words not mine. It is just a fact that the price is largely driven by your shares, even if you’re right. And like James says, it’s not easy to keep it down. I’ve tried but 1. I’m overexposed (so are you, btw); 2. I’m about to retire so I’m trying to sell rather than accumulate more shares.

@NicoDelon

overexposed

My position in this market is currently worth 103K with a loan of 93K. My net worth is currently 49K. Huh.

bought Ṁ70 YES

I expect unemployment to rise by October, and AI will at least in part be blamed for it (even if it is just standard business cycle stuff).

Did anyone hear anything AI related mentioned in any speech or news coverage yesterday (Super Tuesday)?

Think this market should be trading a bit higher. Only imagine instances like this will increase by the fall. Also with Hollywood now in the discussion wrt sora, different avenues for different questions are emerging.

BBC news- Trump supporters target black voters with faked AI images

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-68440150

bought Ṁ100 YES at 35%
bought Ṁ150 NO
bought Ṁ50 NO

@EricBurns It’s certainly possible. But, Ukraine, Russia, China, NATO, classified documents, indictments, economy, immigration, healthcare, Supreme Court, abortion, schools… That’s a lot to cover. 99% of voters don’t give a damn about AI.

@EricBurns Did they talk about computers, iPhone, iPad, cloud computing? The only thing close is when al Gore talked about inventing the internet lol.

AI will most likely lead to end of humanity, but in meantime there are a few good companies created. So all good!!! I think both parties can get behind it. 😂

bought Ṁ14 NO

@Mirek End of humanity my ass.

bought Ṁ45 YES

The criteria here seem ridiculously easy to meet. Only two different questions? Being brought up unprompted by a candidate counts too?

This is either going YES or N/A. There were UFO questions in the Republican primary debates.

bought Ṁ200 NO at 31%
bought Ṁ10 of NO

If it becomes even a minor topic it will become great comedy material.

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