Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States?

This question resolves to YES if during at least one of the main (non-VP) 2024 general presidential election debates in the United States, the moderator asks at least two separate questions directly related to artificial intelligence, such as the potential for job losses due to AI automation, or existential risk from AI. This question also resolves to YES if AI is otherwise brought up by a candidate in the context of a question unrelated to AI and ALL candidates talk about AI at least once during the same debate, with at least one of the candidates saying "AI", "artificial intelligence", "robots" or a close synonym at least three separate times, at least five seconds apart, during the same debate. Otherwise, this question resolves to NO.

Asking "at least two separate questions" means that the moderator must pose two semantically distinct and individual queries, each intended to elicit a unique response, specifically about artificial intelligence. In other words, simply repeating the same question doesn't count as two separate questions, even if the question is asked twice, first to one candidate, and then a second time to the other candidate. Moreover, asking two distinct questions without waiting for the answer to the first one counts as two separate questions for the purpose of this question. For example, a clear positive instance would be asking first, "How do you plan to manage the existential risks from AI?" and then later asking, "What are your proposals to mitigate job loss due to automation from AI?" These are two separate questions because they cover different facets of artificial intelligence—existential risk and employment. A clear negative example would be if the moderator simply asked, "How do you plan to manage the existential risks from AI?" to one candidate, and then later said "Same question to you" to the other candidate. Even though the question is asked twice, it's not considered two "separate" questions because it's a repetition of the same query.

When it comes to questions related to automation and job losses, the key factor that determines whether the question is "directly related to artificial intelligence" is whether the moderator mentions AI technologies or AI companies, such as ChatGPT, OpenAI, generative AI, or neural networks; any question will automatically qualify if the moderator says the word "AI" or "artificial intelligence" in the question. General questions about automation or job losses that don't clearly link back to AI won't be considered "directly related to artificial intelligence". For example, the following questions would NOT count as being directly related to artificial intelligence:

  1. "How will your administration address the growing issue of job losses due to technological advances?" — Too broad; doesn't specify AI.

  2. "What are your plans for helping workers displaced by automation?" — Not specific to AI; includes all automation.

If there are no 2024 general presidential election debates, this question resolves to N/A.

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NicoDelon avatar
Nicopredicts NO

Please don’t tell me people are betting this up because of Sam Altman.

firstuserhere avatar

@NicoDelon Narrator: They are.

Joshua avatar
Joshuapredicts NO

@NicoDelon "President Biden, where do you fall on the EA to e/acc spectrum, and do you believe that the alignment coup against Sam Altman was justified? President Trump, same questions to you."

ClubmasterTransparent avatar

@Joshua Good one, but if the moderator addresses both of them as though they are the current office holder, the debate may derail before they ask about AI.

Conflux avatar
Confluxpredicts NO

@ClubmasterTransparent It's pretty standard to refer to former presidents like that actually

ClubmasterTransparent avatar

@Conflux I thought the proper form of address to formers was "Mr. President" but until I'm invited to meet one I won't need to be sure.

NcyRocks avatar
N.C. Youngpredicts YES

@ClubmasterTransparent That's if you were talking to him one-on-one, I think. Might be a bit ambiguous if they're both referred to like that...

ClubmasterTransparent avatar

@NcyRocks We need Miss Manners to weigh in here. Let's see how the moderator actually addresses them, if there is a debate.

Ernie avatar
Erniepredicts YES

@ClubmasterTransparent market for us that'll happen? Moderator refers to trump as Mr President could be fun

ClubmasterTransparent avatar

@Ernie are you proposing to make one? Multiple choice I think. You could stick to Trump, include both, or make 1 market for each. Or put the alternatives both in one market. If you let people add choices this could turn into pie fight. Pie fight or lack thereof could give us all new insight into both the "Culture War In '24" markets. Best if these markets made by someone with better insight than me into likelihood of pie fight and whether it would be beneficial to Manifold or the greater community.

HanchiSun avatar
Hanchi Sunpredicts YES
MargauxCorens avatar
Margaux Corensbought Ṁ50 of NO

Even though AI is a hot topic right now and certainly in the spotlight, there are a lot more pressing issues and discussions to be had in American politics. There is so much division on topics such as recent abortion laws, gun policies, health care, immigration, racial equity, even climate and environment issues. These are topics that are definitely more important and will be more focused on during these presindential elections. AI has not yet reached the stage where it’s so important to every American citizen where it would warrant that much discussion in a presidential debate compared to other more pressing issues.

Shump avatar
Shumppredicts NO
firstuserhere avatar

I'm not from the US and have watched only 1 presidential debate ((and that was for comedic purposes)). Can someone help me understand some basics:

  1. Are these debates following a set pattern? Are the candidates provided with a list of the questions they will be asked and thus, come prepared with their responses?

  2. Are technology related issues commonly discussed in such debates?

    1. Was blockchain ever mentioned?

    2. Was AI ever mentioned before?

  3. If a question is asked to candidate 1, and then the same question is presented to candidate 2 but in slightly different phrasing, does that count as 2 different questions? What about a minor followup question to the main question? Asking because of

    the moderator asks at least two separate questions directly related to artificial intelligence

wilsonkime avatar
Wilson Kimepredicts YES

@firstuserhere There are 3 debates with set topics, but not specific questions. Blockchain was not mentioned (lol). I don't believe AI was either. Here are transcripts of past debates https://www.debates.org/voter-education/debate-transcripts/

firstuserhere avatar

@wilsonkime I see. Any chance these topics are revealed to the public before the debate?

Joshua avatar
Joshuapredicts NO

The questions are supposed to be secret before the debate. In fact there was a scandal in the past when a moderator was accused of leaking debate questions to the clinton campaign.

saif avatar
saifbought Ṁ10 of YES
Comment hidden
Joshua avatar
Joshuabought Ṁ0 of NO

So we just had a whole primary debate, and I ran a Bingo Market.

We had a couple of answers about the potential of AI coming up:

You can see they started above 50%... and then sank as it didn't happen. And this was with Vivek Ramaswamy on stage, and Biden having just signed an AI executive order.

I think a lot about whether we're in an "AI bubble" on manifold. Heck, I'm betting thousands of mana on AI being the person of the year.

But still, seeing manifold all bet that AI was going to come up in the republican debate and then seeing it never even get mentioned makes me more confident here. Putting up another limit order on No.

Unknown user avatar
Unknown user avatar
Unknown user avatar
4 traders bought Ṁ275 NO
StevenK avatar
Stevenpredicts YES

@Joshua It's probably true that people here are overrating how much AI is on everyone's minds because of bubble effects, but I think a lot of people here are also underrating continued AI capabilities growth causing increased attention.

StevenK avatar
Stevenbought Ṁ50 of YES

@StevenK E.g. I think if attention on AI increases the same amount between Nov 23 and Oct 24 as it did between Dec 22 and Nov 23, this market is >50% likely to resolve YES.

ErickBall avatar
Erick Ballbought Ṁ40 of YES

@Joshua well yeah probably it would, but that was an unusually rapid period of progress. Reversion to the mean is a thing.

EricBolton avatar
Eric Bolton

@Joshua that’s barring another ChatGPT-level event though. 1 year is a long time