MatthewBarnett avatar
Matthew Barnett
closes Nov 6, 2024
Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States?
32%
chance

This question resolves to YES if during one of the main (non-VP) 2024 general presidential election debates in the United States, the moderator asks at least two separate questions directly related to artificial intelligence, such as the potential for job losses due to automation, or existential risk from AI. This question also resolves to YES if AI is otherwise brought up by a candidate in the context of a question unrelated to AI and ALL candidates talk about AI at least once during the same debate, with at least one of the candidates saying "AI", "artificial intelligence", "robots" or a close synonym at least three separate times, at least five seconds apart, during the same debate. Otherwise, this question resolves to NO.

Sort by:
ManifoldDream avatar

Manifold in the wild: A Tweet by Manifold Markets

@panchromaticity @diviacaroline time to bet on more 😎 https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-ai-be-a-major-topic-during-the

milanw avatar

Related market:

JosephNoonan avatar
Joseph Noonan
is predicting NO at 37%

How does this resolve if there are no presidential debates in 2024?

MatthewBarnett avatar
Matthew Barnett
is predicting NO at 37%

@JosephNoonan In that case it will resolve to N/A.

makoyass avatar

What's the partisan angle on AI, though, and how can humanity band together to prevent there from being one?

JosephNoonan avatar
Joseph Noonan
is predicting NO at 37%

@makoyass I don't think there's a clear partisan angle on it yet. I imagine that it will become more controversial as it gets used for more and more things (we've already seen a bit of that), so there might eventually be clear party lines on how to deal with AI. But I don't think it will outweigh the issues that are typically discussed in the debates, at least not by 2024.

NcyRocks avatar
N.C. Young
is predicting NO at 37%

@makoyass Some discussion here:

JosephNoonan avatar
Joseph Noonan
is predicting NO at 37%

AI is becoming more well-known and powerful, but I don't think that the average person cares about AI enough for it to become a major topic in the debates.

NelsonHorsley avatar
Nelson Horsley
bought Ṁ30 of YES

For context in February 2020 I watched the dem primary debate and they didn’t ask the candidates a single question about Covid.

BoltonBailey avatar
Bolton Bailey
is predicting NO at 42%

@NelsonHorsley Well, shutdowns didn't really start until March.

jacksonpolack avatar

Couldn't each candidate talk about AI in some non-AGI-related sense like "taiwan china military sanctions ai" and resolve this to YES without it being in the spirit of "talking about AI because AI is the only thing on anyone's mind"

MatthewBarnett avatar
Matthew Barnett
is predicting NO at 43%

@jacksonpolack Yep. I didn't mention AGI anywhere in the question.

jonsimon avatar

@jacksonpolack My thoughts exactly. AI is strategically important, CHIPS act, etc etc

Preen avatar
Preen
bought Ṁ230 of NO

very happy to be wrong about this

duck avatar

I like this question, this is what Manifold should be about. Subsidized.

b575 avatar

For the "love" of democracy… presuming that they will center on any issue at all is a non-trivial assumption, that the issue will be current is another assumption requiring justification, and then, among the many issues, the chosen one will be the one that's trending now, a rather big time before the debates? I'm not too sure but my probability estimate is certainly below 50%.

Adam avatar
Adam
is predicting YES at 40%

@b575 in the past, presidental debates have tended to feature more than one "thing".

b575 avatar
Дмитрий Зеленский
is predicting NO at 37%

@Adam True. I believe my point still holds, however. (Especially if we do have Trump rather than DeSantis or whoever as the Republican candidate.)

PeterWildeford avatar
Peter Wildeford
is predicting NO at 41%

I like this question. I added M100 in subsidy.

ManifoldDream avatar

Manifold in the wild: A Tweet by Matthew Barnett

Your claim will be tested. https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-ai-be-a-major-topic-during-the https://twitter.com/tszzl/status/1617373140312817666 https://t.co/JYwl3qpyOb

ManifoldDream avatar

Manifold in the wild: A Tweet by Matthew Barnett

@tszzl @joshsojoshsoj Your claim will be tested. https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-ai-be-a-major-topic-during-the