This question resolves to YES if during one of the main (non-VP) 2024 general presidential election debates in the United States, the moderator asks at least two separate questions directly related to artificial intelligence, such as the potential for job losses due to automation, or existential risk from AI. This question also resolves to YES if AI is otherwise brought up by a candidate in the context of a question unrelated to AI and ALL candidates talk about AI at least once during the same debate, with at least one of the candidates saying "AI", "artificial intelligence", "robots" or a close synonym at least three separate times, at least five seconds apart, during the same debate. Otherwise, this question resolves to NO.
How does this resolve if there are no presidential debates in 2024?
What's the partisan angle on AI, though, and how can humanity band together to prevent there from being one?
@makoyass I don't think there's a clear partisan angle on it yet. I imagine that it will become more controversial as it gets used for more and more things (we've already seen a bit of that), so there might eventually be clear party lines on how to deal with AI. But I don't think it will outweigh the issues that are typically discussed in the debates, at least not by 2024.
AI is becoming more well-known and powerful, but I don't think that the average person cares about AI enough for it to become a major topic in the debates.
For context in February 2020 I watched the dem primary debate and they didn’t ask the candidates a single question about Covid.
Couldn't each candidate talk about AI in some non-AGI-related sense like "taiwan china military sanctions ai" and resolve this to YES without it being in the spirit of "talking about AI because AI is the only thing on anyone's mind"
For the "love" of democracy… presuming that they will center on any issue at all is a non-trivial assumption, that the issue will be current is another assumption requiring justification, and then, among the many issues, the chosen one will be the one that's trending now, a rather big time before the debates? I'm not too sure but my probability estimate is certainly below 50%.
@Adam True. I believe my point still holds, however. (Especially if we do have Trump rather than DeSantis or whoever as the Republican candidate.)
Manifold in the wild: A Tweet by Matthew Barnett
Your claim will be tested. https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-ai-be-a-major-topic-during-the https://twitter.com/tszzl/status/1617373140312817666 https://t.co/JYwl3qpyOb
Manifold in the wild: A Tweet by Matthew Barnett
@tszzl @joshsojoshsoj Your claim will be tested. https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-ai-be-a-major-topic-during-the
Manifold in the wild: A Tweet by Manifold Markets