[M5000 subsidy] Will 10,000+ people receive Lantern Bioworks' cavity prevention treatment by 2030?

Lantern Bioworks is attempting to cure cavities via a treatment that modifies the oral microbiome; see this manifund proposal and this precondition market.

<strike>If they achieve their bioengineering goal</strike> They have achieved their bioengineering goal. Will they be able to get "shots in arms" (or, uh, "bacteria in mouths") at a 10,000-person scale by 2030? (Participants treated in trials count.)

It's not clear how public this information will be, though hopefully they'll be willing to share. Resolution may be delayed. If 6+ months after close it seems like we won't get a concrete answer, may resolve to % based on my credence that this has happened. I will not bet.

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price is dropping from $20K to $250 in a few months

bought Ṁ1,000 YES
bought Ṁ1,000 of NO

I think if getting to 10k users by 2030 was really 50% likely, they would have a much higher valuation and investors fighting to get in.

predicts NO

@mckiev or prediction markets are better calibrated (on these sorta scales) than the market

predicts NO

@ElliotDavies I very much hope so

Traders may be interested in a podcast I recorded with the founder: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tPyZt3EJCFM

bought Ṁ45 of NO

This sounds super cool!

bought Ṁ10 of NO

I did a simulation that if the cost of treatment is equal to 250$, the success rate of the R&D is 60%, the average time to get regulatory approval, and the adoption rate is 70%. The chances of this being true is 7%. This is assuming the variables are independent and uniformly distributed. The variable with the most significant impact is the average time to get regulatory approval. Changing it from 3 to 1 year would probably increase the chances by around 30%.

bought Ṁ0 of NO

Wait how much do they need approval? Isn't Aella getting it "in a month or two"?

I don't expect insurance to start covering it anytime soon, but I think people will seek it out regardless if it works.

predicts NO

@jcb if I added a substantial subsidy to this market, would you edit it into the title to advertise? This sitting at 50% tells me we need more incentive for people to really look into the details here.

@Joshua sure! also, as Austin noted a while ago, since the precondition has been met, I can potentially drop that portion of the title

predicts NO

Okay yeah I think this is exciting as hell, I'm adding a 4000 mana subsidy on top of Austin's 1K and I'm adding it to the Subsidy Dashboard.

@Joshua updated!

This sitting at 50% tells me we need more incentive for people to really look into the details here

honestly I see this as a success; I tried to pick a year and number of people where the answer would be meaningful and non-obvious, and I'm thrilled that it seems I managed to succeed at the non-obvious part

predicts NO

I asked chatgpt with bing about BCS3-L1 and it cited this market 😎

predicts NO

Wait seriously? Can we see a screenshot? Bing citing Manifold is kind of huge, though it makes sense for something obscure like this I suppose.

predicts NO

@Joshua I came in hot with “BCS3-L1 cures cavities??” And it took it from there lol.

predicts NO

@Charlie The fourth citation is this market. And then I was able to also get it to cite the actual percentage odds. (Idk when it changed from 49% to 50%).

bought Ṁ25 of YES

@Charlie That was about 34 minutes ago when I put in a small YES bet.

bought Ṁ0 of NO

@Charlie try Bing again now that it's down to 34% 😅

predicts NO

@Joshua Got the most recent data after some prodding. But got confused by other unrelated markets.

I’m considering market manipulation, where do I sign up?

bought Ṁ50 of YES

Now that Lantern has succeeded at recreation you can remove the condition from the title!

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