Lantern Bioworks is attempting to cure cavities via a treatment that modifies the oral microbiome; see this manifund proposal and this precondition market.
<strike>If they achieve their bioengineering goal</strike> They have achieved their bioengineering goal. Will they be able to get "shots in arms" (or, uh, "bacteria in mouths") at a 10,000-person scale by 2030? (Participants treated in trials count.)
It's not clear how public this information will be, though hopefully they'll be willing to share. Resolution may be delayed. If 6+ months after close it seems like we won't get a concrete answer, may resolve to % based on my credence that this has happened. I will not bet.
1,0001,596 sales in the first month: https://manifold.markets/JamieWahls/when-luminaprobioticcom-launches-on#azq8t5hbst4
@JamesBakerc884 that's exciting for their future. I don't want to be first in line, but I do want to get this.
Related market with implications for this one: https://manifold.markets/JamieWahls/when-luminaprobioticcom-launches-on
Traders may be interested in a podcast I recorded with the founder: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tPyZt3EJCFM
I did a simulation that if the cost of treatment is equal to 250$, the success rate of the R&D is 60%, the average time to get regulatory approval, and the adoption rate is 70%. The chances of this being true is 7%. This is assuming the variables are independent and uniformly distributed. The variable with the most significant impact is the average time to get regulatory approval. Changing it from 3 to 1 year would probably increase the chances by around 30%.
@jcb if I added a substantial subsidy to this market, would you edit it into the title to advertise? This sitting at 50% tells me we need more incentive for people to really look into the details here.
@Joshua sure! also, as Austin noted a while ago, since the precondition has been met, I can potentially drop that portion of the title
Okay yeah I think this is exciting as hell, I'm adding a 4000 mana subsidy on top of Austin's 1K and I'm adding it to the Subsidy Dashboard.
This sitting at 50% tells me we need more incentive for people to really look into the details here
honestly I see this as a success; I tried to pick a year and number of people where the answer would be meaningful and non-obvious, and I'm thrilled that it seems I managed to succeed at the non-obvious part
@Charlie The fourth citation is this market. And then I was able to also get it to cite the actual percentage odds. (Idk when it changed from 49% to 50%).
@Joshua Got the most recent data after some prodding. But got confused by other unrelated markets.
