Related market with implications for this one: https://manifold.markets/JamieWahls/when-luminaprobioticcom-launches-on

price is dropping from $20K to $250 in a few months

$250 ship-to-your-house coming in May

https://twitter.com/LanternBioworks/status/1769929390404899102

I think if getting to 10k users by 2030 was really 50% likely, they would have a much higher valuation and investors fighting to get in.

@mckiev or prediction markets are better calibrated (on these sorta scales) than the market

@ElliotDavies I very much hope so

Traders may be interested in a podcast I recorded with the founder: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tPyZt3EJCFM

This sounds super cool!

I did a simulation that if the cost of treatment is equal to 250$, the success rate of the R&D is 60%, the average time to get regulatory approval, and the adoption rate is 70%. The chances of this being true is 7%. This is assuming the variables are independent and uniformly distributed. The variable with the most significant impact is the average time to get regulatory approval. Changing it from 3 to 1 year would probably increase the chances by around 30%.

Wait how much do they need approval? Isn't Aella getting it "in a month or two"?

I don't expect insurance to start covering it anytime soon, but I think people will seek it out regardless if it works.

@jcb if I added a substantial subsidy to this market, would you edit it into the title to advertise? This sitting at 50% tells me we need more incentive for people to really look into the details here.

@Joshua sure! also, as Austin noted a while ago, since the precondition has been met, I can potentially drop that portion of the title

Okay yeah I think this is exciting as hell, I'm adding a 4000 mana subsidy on top of Austin's 1K and I'm adding it to the Subsidy Dashboard.

@Joshua updated!

This sitting at 50% tells me we need more incentive for people to really look into the details here

honestly I see this as a success; I tried to pick a year and number of people where the answer would be meaningful and non-obvious, and I'm thrilled that it seems I managed to succeed at the non-obvious part

I asked chatgpt with bing about BCS3-L1 and it cited this market 😎

Wait seriously? Can we see a screenshot? Bing citing Manifold is kind of huge, though it makes sense for something obscure like this I suppose.

@Joshua I came in hot with “BCS3-L1 cures cavities??” And it took it from there lol.

@Charlie The fourth citation is this market. And then I was able to also get it to cite the actual percentage odds. (Idk when it changed from 49% to 50%).

@Charlie That was about 34 minutes ago when I put in a small YES bet.

@Charlie try Bing again now that it's down to 34% 😅

@Joshua Got the most recent data after some prodding. But got confused by other unrelated markets.

I’m considering market manipulation, where do I sign up?

Now that Lantern has succeeded at recreation you can remove the condition from the title!