Will the Bank of England raise the UK's interest rate at their 2nd November meeting?
88
111k
resolved Nov 2
Resolved
NO

The Bank of England meets on 2nd November to set interest rates.

The market will resolve YES if they raise the rate by any amount from the current level of 5.25%.

The market will resolve NO if they maintain the rate or lower it.

Here are some markets on other UK economic stats:

/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-cpi-inflation-figure-p-5631d8d2019a

/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-cpi-inflation-figure-p-76b36fd55025

/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-monthly-gdp-figure-pub-6e3f964c24ac

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As predicted, there was a 6-3 vote in favour of holding the interest rate at 5.25% so this resolves to NO.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/nov/02/bank-of-england-leaves-interest-rates-unchanged-inflation-slowdown

Is that it for interest rate rises or will there be one more rise in 2023? The December market is here:

predicted YES

Commentators are expecting rates to stay steady today - they’re talking about a 6-3 split in favour of holding steady in the voting.

There’s an interesting graphic from Bloomberg showing the nine members of the MPC and how hawkish/dovish they’re estimated to be right now!

I'll be saying goodbye to my league if I'm wrong but the yield curve is almost completely flat out to 6 months (then down) now.

US rates also implying no chance of a hike in Nov (and a tiny chance of a cut).

@CameronHolmes i'm with you bro

predicted YES

@CameronHolmes Your league position is safe whatever happens - October’s league is closed and your old bets won’t count for November’s leagues unless they change the rules for this season!

predicted NO

@SimonGrayson I think previous bets do count for the new season - my understanding is November will be based on all movements in expected value, even if the bet started before, or ends after the November window.

Maybe this will finally be my month for Masters.

predicted NO

@CameronHolmes My previous comment is incorrect . Only trades place within the month count, as per:

https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/Specifics-of-how-leagues-work-ebfb6ab678b4454a852d513733349c93

Unless I'm misunderstanding something important the BOE yield curves seem to suggest this is extremely unlikely.

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/statistics/yield-curves


1, 2 and 3 month OIS are at: 5.24, 5.28 and 5.31% - huge amounts of cash are being lent by people in aggregate who clearly do not expect to be able to be paid 5.5% in a couple of weeks.

Yes I believe the interest rates will be increased by a minimum of 2%, looking at the previous trend and how inflation is currently ravaging the markets other countries have had to raise interest rates to mitigate the effect of the current economic recession so as for banks and financial organization can yield profits

I think this is a good and important question! I'm going to add 2,000 mana in subsidy, and add it to the the Public Interest Subsidy Dashboard and Subsidy Spotlight tag. Hoping we can get a more accurate forecast with more incentive!