This market resolves as YES if, five years after the development of weakly general AI, wealth inequality in the U.S. has increased compared to the pre-AI baseline. Otherwise, this market resolves as NO.

Additional context

As of the first quarter of 2023:

• The wealthiest 0.1% of Americans own 12.8% of the country's wealth.

• The wealthiest 1% of Americans own 31.3% of the country's wealth.

• The wealthiest 10% of Americans own 69.0% of the country's wealth.

• The middle-class (50th to 90th percentile) own 28.6% of the country's wealth.

• The remaining half of the population owns 2.4% of the country's wealth.

The current disparity between the wealthiest 10% and the poorest 50% is (69/2.4) = 28.75; i.e. the wealthiest 3,400,000 people in the U.S. own 28.75 times as much wealth as the poorest 170,000,000 people do.

The development of weakly general AI could shake up the U.S. economy significantly - but whether it will shake up the economy, and whether that shaking up will increase or decrease inequality, remains to be seen.

Fine print

I will measure the disparity between what the wealthiest 10% of Americans own and what the poorest 50% own, using the most up-to-date data I can find, on the day that this Metaculus question resolves. That disparity will set the "pre-AI baseline," and I will update this market to reflect it. Five years later, I will measure the disparity again, once again using the most up-to-date data I can find. If the disparity has increased, this market resolves as YES - otherwise, it resolves as NO (including if the disparity is the exact same, i.e. has not changed.) I will attempt to use the same data source both times, but if that's not possible, I will settle for using a different data source.

This market resolves based on the state of the U.S. economy at the end of that five-year period, not its state at any point in between.

If the U.S. stops existing prior to the development of weakly general AI, this market resolves N/A, even if the U.S. is re-formed at some point afterwards. If, after the development of weakly general AI, the U.S. stops providing accurate reports of its citizens' wealth and interferes with attempts by outside observers to measure that wealth, this market resolves YES because that's a certain sign that things have really gone to hell in re: income inequality and oligarchy/plutocracy. If the U.S. stops providing accurate reports of its citizens' wealth because AI caused the development of Fully Automated Luxury Gay Space Communism and measuring wealth is pointless, this market resolves NO instead.

The preliminary closing date is set to December 31, 2099, but it will be adjusted as necessary. When the Metaculus question linked above resolves, the closing date of this market will be changed to exactly five years after the question was resolved.