When will the Russian invasion of Ukraine end? ($1000M sub)

I will resolve based on the (de facto) end date on this Wikipedia page:


I will wait until the end date has been the same for a full 7 day period.

If the article is renamed, split or merged I will update the link above to the closest equivalent article.

I will resolve in line with the Wikipedia editors unless it's clear that this is not in line with the "spirit" of the question.

The spirit of the question is about when the armed conflict substantially stops regardless of who controls what territory. A temporary ceasefire does not count.

I may change the criteria to clarify questions or fix flaws.

I will not bet in this market.

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Why is 2026 so much higher? What is special about it?

I suggest specifying a waiting period of longer than twenty four hours, since edit wars can often go on for longer. Also consider the possibility the article is renamed / split / merged.

@BenjaminIkuta changed to 72 hours (without it changing - seems like plenty of time).

Said I will update the link if any of those happen. That's what I planned to do but now it's in the description for everyone.

@Daniel_MC RfCs can easily take longer than that. And there's really no hurry, since this is already on the scale of years.

My point about renaming or whatever isn't just about updating the link, it's about if it's unclear which article should be considered the equivalent. For example, if this article stays the same, but the conflict continues under a different name, or something like that.

@BenjaminIkuta ok 7 days - I don't know heaps about the Wikipedia editing process so appreciate your advice.

I think my comments about the spirit of the question answers the question about which article should be considered equivalent.

In your example, if the fighting hasn't "substantially stopped" then I wouldn't resolve the market and would move to the new name of the conflict.

If you disagree I would appreciate an example of wording that you would recommend.

I've added a subsidy of 1,000 mana to this market to incentivize participation. Could you edit the title to advertise that fact?

@Joshua done!

What if there's a treaty and Russia keeps parts of Krim and Donbas?


I presume Wikipedia editors would put an end date on the invasion if what you described occurred.

I would consider an end to the armed conflict to be the end of the invasion for the purposes of the "spirit of the question".

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