[M1,000 Subsidy] I'm putting ten thousand mana into another market as free liquidity - which market will it be?
26
2.1kṀ4449
resolved Oct 22
80%74%
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20%13%
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2%
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4%
Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024? https://manifold.markets/BruceGrugett/will-donald-trump-be-the-republican
4%Other

TL;DR: Resolves 80% to the market I put 10K subsidy into, and 20% to the market I put 1K subsidy into. N/A if I do not put a 10K subsidy into any market.


As I've been subsidizing markets for @Austin's Public Interest Subsidy Program, I find myself coming to the conclusion that bigger is better. The existing systems of Manifold already do a decent job of providing subsidy to small questions. When I bring a question from M100 liquidity to M1100 liquidity, I'm not sure I'm doing something that Manifold wouldn't have already done with house subsidies. 

But until the recent subsidy changes, this house subsidy was capped at M2000 liquidity for Yes/No questions. And even after the recent update, adding just 5 mana per trader up to 10,000 traders hasn't added much to any of these questions yet.

So I think we should do it ourselves! These are important questions with thousands of traders, but the markets can be moved with just a few dozen mana! These markets should all be much thicker, in my opinion.

Many of the best traders of the site have few positions on these markets. Now, that's understandable given that high-trader markets are necessarily about difficult questions that don't resolve for some time. There's less incentive to trade on such questions, when you can trade on questions you're more confident about and which resolve sooner. 

I think this is a valuable chance to experiment with putting large subsidies into already-popular questions, to see if it can attract a new wave of interest and increase the market's accuracy.

Accordingly, I am planning on putting M10,000 of subsidy into one of the questions I've listed above. I will also put an M1000 subsidy into a second of these questions, and resolve the market 80%/20% between those two questions.

I have a favorite in mind, but I'm not going to say what it is at first because I'd like to see if the market agrees with me. If you have other suggestions besides these markets, post them in the comments and I will add them as an option if I think they're worth considering.

If I do not put an M10,000 subsidy into any market in the next week, this market will resolve N/A.

I will not trade on this question beyond buying down Other initially and then selling my no shares if a new question is added, and I will provide additional information about my decision in the comments as time passes.

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