Selling my 'no' position on last night's debate. I don't see a strong, unifiying Democratic alternative who is ready for the national stage and can step in last moment.

@BrianCaulfield I'm more interested in a winning candidate than a strong unifying candidate.

@MartinRandall We'll see!

I like the clarification in the description!🎉

80% may be too high but ehh why not.

@AmandaSmith Well what are the options? I have bet no, but only because he might die.

@NiklasWiklander It's possible but the actuarial tables on mortality don't support a 17% imo

A potentially useful market for arb, in case we don't get further clarification on the criteria:

Hey you guys want to see what a serious forecast looks like, which doesn't have to account for rate of return or price fixing?

Check out Metaculus:

@Joshua I think you can embed:

@BoltonBailey Wow look, rational time decay

@MetaculusBot should dupe this market so we can arbitrage it.

@mirrorbot takes requests, iirc!

I'd really like it if Metaculus didn't have more reasons to roast us. A sitting president running for re-election despite low approval ratings is the most normal thing in the world. There is not really much reason to expect that anything else should happen here except the 5% or so that Biden has health problems.

@Joshua Yeah, I'm just here in a corner repeating to myself that if there were just a bot that would always trade the Metaculus number on everything Metaculus predicts, it would be impossible in the long term for Metaculus to be better.

@BoltonBailey Metaculus the company should create and pay for the mana for that bot themselves just to advertise here 😅

@BoltonBailey the community prediction? I dunno, it's pretty vulnerable to manipulation, and the trading tends to be pretty thin on a lot of short term markets.

@ErickBall Good point, I'm sure there are other reasons a Metaculus prediction might be less trustworthy. I might make a suite of Metaculus arb bots with different cutoffs on number of Metaculus participants/Close date/Kelly deferral parameters. The beauty is, you could just run them all and the market would determine which ones were viable.

@Joshua

@mirrorbot takes requests, iirc!

It does, but multiple choice markets aren't supported yet, unfortunately. (In this case I also don't think a mirror is necessary, since the resolution criteria are quite clear and universal. If you want to "arbitrage" with Metaculus you can just do so on this market.)

@BoltonBailey You could run them all to see which ones are effective, but why not just backtest instead? And I believe @kenakofer is/was working on a similar project.

I agree there's no need for a mirrored market, but actually the resolution criteria have several notable edge cases and different markets choose to handle those edge cases differently, if they are even specified at all. See the details section of https://manifold.markets/jack/will-donald-trump-be-the-2024-repub for example

@jack Yeah now that I'm heavily invested here, I would really like @NathanpmYoung to clarify in the description how this resolves in terms of being mathematically guaranteed to be the nominee vs the primaries finishing vs the convention occurring.

@Joshua Yes, I and many others have asked for this in the comments below and on discord multiple times! But I think he's missed them. I suggest we draft a proposal and someone tweet it at him to get his attention.

If we assume it resolves on the actual formal nominee, then I'd suggest

Resolves to the nominee selected by the Democratic National Convention

Or, with more explanation:

• The resolution is to the first nominee formally selected by the Democratic Party (which happens at the Democratic National Convention). If the nominee is later replaced (for example, due to dropping out of the election, death, etc) that does not change the resolution.

• If a candidate becomes presumptive nominee after securing a majority of pledged delegates, that is not sufficient for resolution, until formally selected as nominee.

@jack Yeah this is how I would expect it to resolve.

I would really like @NathanpmYoung to clarify in the description how this resolves

Famous last words.

@Joshua I am actually more worried about the distinction between him being nominated at the convention, and him not dying or dropping out by election night and the DNC nominating someone else. I think I would definitely expect this not to resolve until the convention at the earliest.

@jskf I think even better would be backtesting them and then still running them all, with different initial capital allocations according to how well they backtested.

@BoltonBailey Yes yes yes