Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
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Nov 7
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#Politics #USPolitics #Elections #JoeBiden
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@traders I'm adding a substantial subsidy here, and put in a larger one on the main Multiple Choice version of this market.

If you want to bet on something shorter term but similarly contentious, we have a new Prize Market up for who will lead in the Election Betting Odds party average in less than a month:

The average has flipped a few times this year, but trip has taken a solid lead recently:

This is an average of four other real money markets about which party will win, and in general these are much more rational than the markets asking which specific candidate will win.

It's pretty much the closest thing to predicting who will win in the election, but next month instead of in November!

bought Ṁ50 NO

Biden has destroyed the Democratic party I used to love. Everything he touches turns to garbage.

@Yoae how did he do that?

@Tumbles he didn't

@Tumbles the economy, the border, Afghanistan, China, Israel, inflation, Racism, government debt, Mexico, fentanyl, health care

@Yoae What decisions did Biden make it regards to fentanyl that contributed to destroying the democratic party? Same question for the rest. Like in the case of Afghanistan, how did finally pulling out of Afghanistan contribute to destroying the Democratic party?

@Yoae I'm no expert on any of these but the withdraw from Afghanistan was always going to be a cluster and Joe was the only one with the balls to do it

@NivlacM Wasn't Biden just following the timetable that Trump had already planned? I'm pretty sure Trump would have pulled out of Afghanistan too if he were re-elected in 2020.

@Tumbles Biden didn't take fentanyl seriously enough. Didn't try very hard to work with Mexico to address the growing cartel influence and massive amounts of deadly drugs that have flooded the streets.

Democrats are pro harm-reduction and too permissive about hard drugs.

@Yoae A quick search on US policy towards fentanyl brings up a lot of information on actions being taken by the federal government to attempt to disrupt the current wave of fentanyl abuse and death. Unfortunately, this this is just the latest of many "waves" of drug abuse in this country. Americans like their drugs.

Fentanyl abuse started to climb in 2013 and really took off in 2019. Growth from 2017-2019 seems to have come directly from prescription opioid abusers that lost access to their former drug of choice OxyContin. OxyContin abuse was facilitated by pill mills run by organized crime rings in the US and what appears to be direct ties between organized crime and pharma producers (Mallinckrodt).

https://www.shadac.org/opioid-epidemic-united-states

The White House response to fentanyl seems to be on the scale of the the 1980s war on drugs, targeting illicit fentanyl supply chains, regulating precursor chemicals, deploying advanced detection technologies, expanding public health services, engaging international partners through the Global Coalition to Address Synthetic Drug Threats, seizing large drug shipments and extraditing drug traffickers like El Chapo. Here's the White House's official factsheet.

Here's a reflexive market for all marginal price settlers. Do you plan to bid this market subsequent to the verdict?

@TylerMurphy I don't understand why these markets don't move.

Derivative market

It seems The Keys to the White House is predicting a Biden win. Six or more false keys are needed for Biden to lose, and it looks like around 4 or 5 are false right now.
From a recent April 30th CNN interview, Lichtman says:

Biden loses keys:

  • 1. Midterm Elections

  • 12. Incumbent Charisma

with there being 4 unsure keys:

  • 4. Third Party (depends on if RFK polls over 10% when it's closer to the election)

  • 8. Social Unrest (Lichtman says the current college protests are not enough, they'd probably have to get much larger)

  • 10. Foreign/military failure

  • 11. Foreign/military success (doesn't feel like this will be true)

This implies both that all other keys are likely true, and that no event prior to the interview (Afghanistan withdrawal/Ukraine) was significant enough for him to decisively state that any of those 4 unsure keys are false.

Lichtman says he expects to make his prediction in early August.

@TNTOutburst I think Biden will win but the Keys are subjective garbage. It’s a complete joke to call IRA “major policy change” when 70% of the country has never heard of it. The biggest policy change during Biden’s term, by far, was Dobbs - which was against him.

Recession doesn’t account for inflation or interest rates, which are the two biggest knocks against Bidenomics.

Biden’s approval rating never recovered from Afghanistan withdrawal. That’s a pretty good case for foreign policy failure.

The answer to no social unrest is a funny one. Let’s see if he’s singing the same tune after the Chicago DNC or moves the goalposts again.

@MarkHamill yeah the keys to the white house feels both largely subjective and like textbook overfitting, but since it has a better prediction record than both pollsters and betting markets, I still find it interesting to keep an eye on. Even if Lichtman just got lucky/he is the one good at predicting elections, not the model.

@MarkHamill Most voters can't name any legislation but they still might understand and appreciate the IRA's effect. The nightmare runaway inflation scenario predicted in late 2021, never really materialized and unemployment rates have barely moved from their all time lows. 3.4% inflation isn't ideal but it's also not the end of the world. Still, I'd be willing to wager that fewer Americans remember the details of our exit from Afghanistan or Syria than know anything about the Inflation Reduction Act.

What Americans remember from Afghanistan is watching footage of a bunch of crazy desperate people who failed to defend their own city trying to hitch a ride on the side of a cargo plane.

bought Ṁ300 NO

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@Hailey What exactly do you mean that Biden has gone “full trans”? As a centrist democrat I’ve never heard of anything like this so I’m not exactly pissed off like you claim

@Hailey Watch out everyone! He’s going full trans!

@Arky And this... Is... to go... even further beyond trans!

AAAAAAAAAAH!!!

@Hailey We're talking about transhumanism here, right? 🤔

@JoshuaWilkes It's too late.

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