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#Politics #USPolitics #Elections #JoeBiden
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Funny that the old man just crossed Don in the polls and the market now has Biden -6%

@MP It's actually only -3 which seems reasonable to me

bought Ṁ857 YES

@MP He did not but there is a good chance he will in the next few weeks due to a fundraising headstart. Still, fundamentals favor Trump heavily.

@MP look at swing state polls

@riverwalk3 the "fundamentals" tremendously favor Biden, lol. When people say "fundamentals" w.r.t. pres. elections they mean things like (1) incumbency, (2) the economy, and (3) US involvement in a military conflict. At least 2 out of the 3 of these favor Biden, and I think most models would say the third does as well, as there are really no boots on the ground in Gaza currently. Say what you will about whether incumbency is an advantage these days (I think it is) but as far as "election fundamentals" analysis, it DEFinitely is considered an advantage.

@benshindel The economy and foreign policy both hurt Biden. A majority of Americans think the economy is bad and think Trump is better to handle the economy.

In every single election since 2000, the incumbent party lost independent voters. And based on registration trends, Republicans are likely to outvote Democrats in 2024.

@riverwalk3 that's popular opinion then, not "fundamentals". The fundamentals are like:

- is unemployment low, is the stock market going up

- is the US engaged in a war with high US casualties

- did the current party perform well in the midterms

etc... it's not "does the US public think the economy is doing well" or "are Americans protesting the president's foreign policy

@benshindel Inflation is still high and definitely high cumulatively and the labor market is weakening fast. Retail sales seem to be rolling over with excess savings out, suggesting a recession soon.

@riverwalk3 I'm not litigating the state of the economy, lol. I'm just telling you what the term "fundamentals" means w.r.t. forecasting presidential elections.

@benshindel It definitely matters whether the economy is strong or weak in terms of fundamentals. And I think it is weak, as do most Americans. Only investors and economists think it is strong.

@riverwalk3 but also, it you'd like to bet on the odds of a recession in 2024, I've put up some big limit orders here: https://manifold.markets/chrisjbillington/will-the-us-enter-a-recession-by-20?r=YmVuc2hpbmRlbA

@riverwalk3 I'm neither an investor, nor an economist, and I think the economy is strong!

@benshindel Look at my position in the recession market, lol.

@TrentonPotter This is normal for an incumbent, as Trump outraised Biden by more at this point in the 2020 cycle.

What has shifted the odds imo is the Republicans and Trump stupidly talking about cutting SS.

Assuming it's bad if Trump is elected, I wonder if it would be better if Biden dropped out.

Interesting, this market is 7% higher. I believe that implies permitting duplicate markets has a substantial impact on Joe Biden's chances

@Tumbles let me fix that for you

opened a Ṁ20 NO at 55% order

@Tumbles it might be the other way around. Biden has an impact on Manifold team.

From Tyler Cowen:

Have you noticed that Michelle Obama was, less than 24 hours ago, up to #3 in the betting markets for likelihood of being the next U.S. President?  She was at about 7%.  Now it is Gavin Newsom who is #3 at about ten percent.  At the same time, the NYT Editorial page, other MSM sources, and Hillary Clinton all seem to be turning on Biden, on the issue of age of course.  I would not place too much emphasis on that seven percent number, or that ten percent number, as I suspect there is private information at work here — either private information that Biden is toast, or private information that he isn’t toast.  The problem is I don’t know which.  Still, this is a live issue.

It is also a good test of public intellectuals.  Obviously, the issue is not just about Biden’s current competency (which I cannot judge — articulateness is overrated!), but also a) how the public perceives him, b) how his staff and other countries perceive him, and c) how matters will be four to five years from now, when he is still President, if he is still President.  (Start by reading Shakespeare on political leadership.)  If you’re defending Biden, for reasons related to your expected value calculations, I hope at least you are being honest with yourself about your Straussianism here.  But please do add to your calculations the notion that the American public is pretty fed up with this kind of response from our mainstream political institutions.

One possible lesson here is that our political establishment really cannot coordinate on making needed changes.  The other possible lesson is that they can.  I am prepared for Bayesian updates, as my status quo assessments by necessity will be disturbed.

It’s interesting how a 1 point shift in this question has such an outsize effect on league scores

@MarkHamill For league scores, I think only the bets made this month count. So say Tumbles bets from January and December going down would not influence his league score.

@MarkHamill interesting

bought Ṁ666 YES

I'm going to do all or nothing YES on this one

@KleverAnon The same but opposite

The libs are gonna get owned

bought Ṁ100 YES

@lukres betting on some twists from the Supreme Court. Yes for Biden.

@lukres there's a 29% chance biden wins imo

@CourierSix I don't know what what 🐈🐈🐈🐈 means but the actual odds are closer to 23%

@jim Even polymarket isn't that low, so if you think that you can go make a lot of money and mana

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