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Cheap mana arb:
Buy 10000M for $100. Place it on NO at 2 here.
Go to the bookies and bet $60 YES at 3.3
Cost: $160
If NO, you get 20000M!
If YES, you get $198 from the bookie, which you can then use to buy 19800M
Either way you get about 20000M for $160.
20% discount.
The only downside is if you lose the Mana bet it looks bad on our chart, maybe open another account.
@Undox lmao, this could work, if only losing real money was worth gaining mana

@benshindel it would work, if you wanted to by Mana anyway. It is not $ profitable though.
@Undox but also the real money markets are delusional if they think Biden only has a 33% chance of winning at this point?!







@RyanTimmins How is JB “evidently senile”? Even if he’s past his cognitive prime, I think someone who occasionally slips on their words is not necessarily senile.

There's actually a little-known integer overflow error in the US constitution, where if the candidates' ages sum to a number higher than the system can handle the whole thing breaks and the presidency is given to Mahatma Gandhi instead.

@HelenD I don't take much stock in probability estimates that are clearly insane. 11% for Newsom when he's not even running?

@JosephNoonan I agree with you, but if you truly believe, that looks like free money.

@JohnSmithb9be Free money to anyone who can legally bet on those markets and has the means to do so. That website is getting its predictions from of an average of other markets, and it says that they're all illegal to use in the U.S.

@JosephNoonan People are betting there's a small chance Biden drops out of the race and Newsom is the most likely to take over the candidacy.

@HelenD That small chance should be more like 1% than what those betting markets have.


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