Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
2.8K
22K
16K
2024
49%
chance
#Politics #USPolitics #Elections #JoeBiden
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Undox avatar
Undoxpredicts NO

Cheap mana arb:

Buy 10000M for $100. Place it on NO at 2 here.

Go to the bookies and bet $60 YES at 3.3

Cost: $160

If NO, you get 20000M!
If YES, you get $198 from the bookie, which you can then use to buy 19800M

Either way you get about 20000M for $160.

20% discount.

The only downside is if you lose the Mana bet it looks bad on our chart, maybe open another account.

Undox avatar
Undoxpredicts NO

@Undox if M was sellable like crypto, of course the market would tend towards money markets.

benshindel avatar
Ben Shindelpredicts YES

@Undox lmao, this could work, if only losing real money was worth gaining mana

Undox avatar
Undoxpredicts NO

@benshindel it would work, if you wanted to by Mana anyway. It is not $ profitable though.

benshindel avatar
Ben Shindelpredicts YES

@Undox but also the real money markets are delusional if they think Biden only has a 33% chance of winning at this point?!

Undox avatar
Undoxpredicts NO

@benshindel they might be? Might be money to be made there.

AmandaSmith avatar
Amanda Smith

@benshindel according to Peter singer.

znbought Ṁ1,734 ofNO
Joshua avatar
Joshua

great opportunity for those of you who bought no at higher prices to exit with profit

benshindel avatar
Ben Shindelbought Ṁ1,000 of YES

@Joshua 50k limit order is wild

Joshua avatar
Joshuapredicts YES

@benshindel It was 100k before he cancelled it!

Undox avatar
Undoxpredicts NO

@Joshua my bags get dumped at the bookie's prob: 30%

TrentonPotter avatar
Trenton Potter
MP avatar
MPpredicts YES
Akzzz123 avatar
AKpredicts NO
Joshua avatar
Joshuapredicts YES

Re-election guaranteed.

Unknown user avatar
Unknown user avatar
2 traders bought Ṁ210 YES
ShellaLudiaFleurantin avatar
Shella Ludia Fleurantinpredicts YES
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HanchiSun avatar
Hanchi Sun
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RyanTimmins avatar
Ryan Timminsbought Ṁ100 of NO

I doubt the U.S. would elect a president who is evidently senile.

Unknown user avatar
Unknown user avatar
2 traders bought Ṁ50 YES
nottelling2ccc avatar
not tellingpredicts YES

@RyanTimmins How is JB “evidently senile”? Even if he’s past his cognitive prime, I think someone who occasionally slips on their words is not necessarily senile.

ErikCorry avatar
Erik Corry

@RyanTimmins So you expect RFK jr to win?

Joshua avatar
Joshuapredicts YES

There's actually a little-known integer overflow error in the US constitution, where if the candidates' ages sum to a number higher than the system can handle the whole thing breaks and the presidency is given to Mahatma Gandhi instead.

Mtytalboat avatar
Notthegiblets bought Ṁ131 YES at 51%
Daniel_MC avatar
Daniel bought Ṁ100 NO at 52%
PlasmaBallin avatar
Plasma Ballin'predicts YES

@HelenD I don't take much stock in probability estimates that are clearly insane. 11% for Newsom when he's not even running?

JohnSmithb9be avatar
John Smithpredicts YES

@JosephNoonan I agree with you, but if you truly believe, that looks like free money.

PlasmaBallin avatar
Plasma Ballin'predicts YES

@JohnSmithb9be Free money to anyone who can legally bet on those markets and has the means to do so. That website is getting its predictions from of an average of other markets, and it says that they're all illegal to use in the U.S.

HelenD avatar
Helen Dpredicts NO

@JosephNoonan People are betting there's a small chance Biden drops out of the race and Newsom is the most likely to take over the candidacy.

PlasmaBallin avatar
Plasma Ballin'predicts YES

@HelenD That small chance should be more like 1% than what those betting markets have.

HelenD avatar
Helen Dpredicts NO
PlasmaBallin avatar
Plasma Ballin'predicts YES

@HelenD I already have a bunch of YES shares in that market.