Cheap mana arb:

Buy 10000M for $100. Place it on NO at 2 here.

Go to the bookies and bet $60 YES at 3.3

Cost: $160

If NO, you get 20000M!
If YES, you get $198 from the bookie, which you can then use to buy 19800M

Either way you get about 20000M for $160.

20% discount.

The only downside is if you lose the Mana bet it looks bad on our chart, maybe open another account.

@Undox if M was sellable like crypto, of course the market would tend towards money markets.

@Undox lmao, this could work, if only losing real money was worth gaining mana

@benshindel it would work, if you wanted to by Mana anyway. It is not $ profitable though.

@Undox but also the real money markets are delusional if they think Biden only has a 33% chance of winning at this point?!

@benshindel they might be? Might be money to be made there.

@benshindel according to Peter singer.

great opportunity for those of you who bought no at higher prices to exit with profit

@Joshua 50k limit order is wild

@benshindel It was 100k before he cancelled it!

@Joshua my bags get dumped at the bookie's prob: 30%

@TrentonPotter interesting market. You may have interest too in:

• /MP/on-the-monday-before-super-tuesday

• /MP/on-the-monday-before-the-election-w-b4691fe4eae2

Well Trump certainly isnt winning https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-17/trump-s-mistrial-motion-rejected-by-judge-in-ny-fraud-case?srnd=premium#xj4y7vzkg

Re-election guaranteed.

I doubt the U.S. would elect a president who is evidently senile.

@RyanTimmins How is JB “evidently senile”? Even if he’s past his cognitive prime, I think someone who occasionally slips on their words is not necessarily senile.

@RyanTimmins So you expect RFK jr to win?

There's actually a little-known integer overflow error in the US constitution, where if the candidates' ages sum to a number higher than the system can handle the whole thing breaks and the presidency is given to Mahatma Gandhi instead.

https://electionbettingodds.com/President2024.html

@HelenD I don't take much stock in probability estimates that are clearly insane. 11% for Newsom when he's not even running?

@JosephNoonan I agree with you, but if you truly believe, that looks like free money.

@JohnSmithb9be Free money to anyone who can legally bet on those markets and has the means to do so. That website is getting its predictions from of an average of other markets, and it says that they're all illegal to use in the U.S.

@JosephNoonan People are betting there's a small chance Biden drops out of the race and Newsom is the most likely to take over the candidacy.

@HelenD That small chance should be more like 1% than what those betting markets have.

@JosephNoonan

@HelenD I already have a bunch of YES shares in that market.