Will LLM hallucinations be a fixed problem by the end of 2025? | Manifold

Will LLM hallucinations be a fixed problem by the end of 2025?

694

3.7kṀ230k

2026

6%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

https://fortune.com/2023/08/01/can-ai-chatgpt-hallucinations-be-fixed-experts-doubt-altman-openai/

Tech experts are starting to doubt that ChatGPT and A.I. 'hallucinations' will ever go away: 'This isn’t fixable'

Experts are starting to doubt it, and even OpenAI CEO Sam Altman is a bit stumped.

“This isn’t fixable,” said Emily Bender, a linguistics professor and director of the University of Washington’s Computational Linguistics Laboratory. “It’s inherent in the mismatch between the technology and the proposed use cases.”

How true will this end up being? At the end of 2025 I will evalaute whether the hallucination problem for LLMs has been fixed or still exists. If hallucinations have been solved this market resolves YES. If the outstanding hallucination problem still exists, this market will resolve NO.

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Will hallucinations (made up facts) created by LLMs go below 1% on specific corpora before 2025?

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How Will the LLM Hallucination Problem Be Solved?

Will LLMs mostly overcome the Reversal Curse by the end of 2025?

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Will RL work for LLMs "spill over" to the rest of RL by 2026?

Will LLMs become a ubiquitous part of everyday life by June 2026?

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Will LLMs be able to formally verify non-trivial programs by the end of 2025?

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