If Hezbollah/Lebanon invade Israel, will the US Military get involved?

#Israel #Subsidy Spotlight #New Year's Resolutions 2024

802

Ṁ20k

Ṁ4.2k

resolved Jan 6

Resolved

N/A

ALL

The US Navy is moving a carrier to the east mediterranian to deter Hezbollah from getting involved https://edition.cnn.com/middleeast/live-news/israel-hamas-gaza-attack-10-08-23/h_10607e0e6b6fbce28e475e3136b86db5.

If they decide to call the bluff and invade anyway, will US forces in the area retaliate?

("Retaliate" here means US forces striking targets directly. Supplying arms or support to Israel doesn't count).

The conditional will be settled based on this question https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-isreal-and-lebanon-go-to-war-i (that is, if it settles as no then this settles N/A)

Will Israel and Lebanon go to war in 2023?

57% chance. If Israel declares war on Hezbollah and not Lebanon, this market still resolves YES. IE. If Israel declares war on Hezbollah, it still counts as war against Lebanon. Considering Hezbollah is almost the defacto military and one of the most prominant political parties in Lebanon. Resolution will happen if either side declares war or performs wartime military action. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/8/9/israel-threatens-to-return-lebanon-to-stone-age-in-any-war-with-hezbollah

Get Ṁ200 play money

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predicted NO

@ShakedKoplewitz So if Israel invades Lebanon this will not resolve N/A? So if Israel invades and the US doesn't intervene, this resolves NO, right?

@ShakedKoplewitz It seems like the close date should extend until the end of the year, to match the close date for the underlying market.

bought Ṁ100 of YES

Are you extending the close date to EOY?

bought Ṁ10 of YES

How does this resolve if Israel preemptively attacks Lebanon, and the US does/doesn't get involved?

predicted YES

@YairHalberstadt The condition market is set by this one https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-isreal-and-lebanon-go-to-war-i,

so based on how that one resolves.

predicted YES

An unconditional version of this market

https://manifold.markets/Akzzz123/will-the-us-military-get-involved-i?r=QWt6enoxMjM

Will the US military get involved in the Israel-Hamas war in 2023?

50% chance. Resolves YES if US forces get involved in combat operations against Hamas or any other forces that join the war against Israel.

bought Ṁ50 of YES

The US is moving 2 carrier groups to the area and has made it clear they are there to prevent the scope of the conflict from broadening. If the US does not retaliate, then US carrier groups will rightly be seen as nothing but pleasure craft cruising the seas.

bought Ṁ3 of NO

@AlQuinn I thought they were a message to Iran, not to Hezbollah, though

predicted YES

@mariopasquato Hezbollah is the likeliest to engage. They border Israel and Iran much prefers engaging in terrorism through its proxies. USS Eisenhower might just park in the eastern Mediterranean, or might go through Suez to more directly face down Iran depending the situation in a few days.

I think this is a good and important question, but people are hesitant to trade on conditional questions which might N/A. I'm going to add 4,000 mana in subsidy (which will be 3,000 after the new subsidy fee) and add it to the the Public Interest Subsidy Dashboard and Subsidy Spotlight tag.

predicted YES

@Joshua why doesn't this seem to be working?

My understanding is that when someone subsidizes a market it comes in slowly, not all at once.

@Joshua unfortunately because of how AMMs work I don't think subsidies really encourage people to bet on conditional markets as much as they otherwise would