@ShakedKoplewitz So if Israel invades Lebanon this will not resolve N/A? So if Israel invades and the US doesn't intervene, this resolves NO, right?

@ShakedKoplewitz It seems like the close date should extend until the end of the year, to match the close date for the underlying market.

Are you extending the close date to EOY?

How does this resolve if Israel preemptively attacks Lebanon, and the US does/doesn't get involved?

@YairHalberstadt The condition market is set by this one https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-isreal-and-lebanon-go-to-war-i,

so based on how that one resolves.

An unconditional version of this market

https://manifold.markets/Akzzz123/will-the-us-military-get-involved-i?r=QWt6enoxMjM

Will the US military get involved in the Israel-Hamas war in 2023?

50% chance. Resolves YES if US forces get involved in combat operations against Hamas or any other forces that join the war against Israel.

The US is moving 2 carrier groups to the area and has made it clear they are there to prevent the scope of the conflict from broadening. If the US does not retaliate, then US carrier groups will rightly be seen as nothing but pleasure craft cruising the seas.

@AlQuinn I thought they were a message to Iran, not to Hezbollah, though

@mariopasquato Hezbollah is the likeliest to engage. They border Israel and Iran much prefers engaging in terrorism through its proxies. USS Eisenhower might just park in the eastern Mediterranean, or might go through Suez to more directly face down Iran depending the situation in a few days.

I think this is a good and important question, but people are hesitant to trade on conditional questions which might N/A. I'm going to add 4,000 mana in subsidy (which will be 3,000 after the new subsidy fee) and add it to the the Public Interest Subsidy Dashboard and Subsidy Spotlight tag.

@Joshua why doesn't this seem to be working?

My understanding is that when someone subsidizes a market it comes in slowly, not all at once.

@Joshua unfortunately because of how AMMs work I don't think subsidies really encourage people to bet on conditional markets as much as they otherwise would