The US Navy is moving a carrier to the east mediterranian to deter Hezbollah from getting involved https://edition.cnn.com/middleeast/live-news/israel-hamas-gaza-attack-10-08-23/h_10607e0e6b6fbce28e475e3136b86db5.
If they decide to call the bluff and invade anyway, will US forces in the area retaliate?
("Retaliate" here means US forces striking targets directly. Supplying arms or support to Israel doesn't count).
The conditional will be settled based on this question https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-isreal-and-lebanon-go-to-war-i (that is, if it settles as no then this settles N/A)
1,000
3.00@ShakedKoplewitz So if Israel invades Lebanon this will not resolve N/A? So if Israel invades and the US doesn't intervene, this resolves NO, right?
@ShakedKoplewitz It seems like the close date should extend until the end of the year, to match the close date for the underlying market.
@YairHalberstadt The condition market is set by this one https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-isreal-and-lebanon-go-to-war-i,
so based on how that one resolves.
An unconditional version of this market
https://manifold.markets/Akzzz123/will-the-us-military-get-involved-i?r=QWt6enoxMjM
@mariopasquato Hezbollah is the likeliest to engage. They border Israel and Iran much prefers engaging in terrorism through its proxies. USS Eisenhower might just park in the eastern Mediterranean, or might go through Suez to more directly face down Iran depending the situation in a few days.
I think this is a good and important question, but people are hesitant to trade on conditional questions which might N/A. I'm going to add 4,000 mana in subsidy (which will be 3,000 after the new subsidy fee) and add it to the the Public Interest Subsidy Dashboard and Subsidy Spotlight tag.
@Joshua unfortunately because of how AMMs work I don't think subsidies really encourage people to bet on conditional markets as much as they otherwise would