If Hezbollah/Lebanon invade Israel, will the US Military get involved?
92
4.2kṀ20k
resolved Jan 6
Resolved
N/A

The US Navy is moving a carrier to the east mediterranian to deter Hezbollah from getting involved https://edition.cnn.com/middleeast/live-news/israel-hamas-gaza-attack-10-08-23/h_10607e0e6b6fbce28e475e3136b86db5.

If they decide to call the bluff and invade anyway, will US forces in the area retaliate?

("Retaliate" here means US forces striking targets directly. Supplying arms or support to Israel doesn't count).

The conditional will be settled based on this question https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-isreal-and-lebanon-go-to-war-i (that is, if it settles as no then this settles N/A)

Will Israel and Lebanon go to war in 2023?
57% chance. If Israel declares war on Hezbollah and not Lebanon, this market still resolves YES. IE. If Israel declares war on Hezbollah, it still counts as war against Lebanon. Considering Hezbollah is almost the defacto military and one of the most prominant political parties in Lebanon. Resolution will happen if either side declares war or performs wartime military action. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/8/9/israel-threatens-to-return-lebanon-to-stone-age-in-any-war-with-hezbollah
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