This market resolves YES if anyone other than the 6 people in the screenshot below is the next speaker of the house. It resolves NO if one of those six people is the next speaker.
This is a derivative market of /SimonGrayson/who-will-be-the-next-speaker-of-the-0b49bf53ad12 . At the time of market creation, the top options are:
Collectively these six people(not counting other) have 59% of the probability right now.
I think it would be useful to bet if one of them will be the next Speaker, or if it will be one of the options in the other 41% of the probability space.
Resolution will use the same rules as the main market, with the resolution date being extended as necessary.
Going to try something unorthodox and throw in a large subsidy here, I think this is an important question the whole site is talking about and I think this is an important crux as we all ask "if not Jordan, who else?"
@Joshua Good point! Although I hesitantly bet on NO. Been thinking Patrick McHenry will emerge as a consensus candidate (even picking up some votes from the Democrats to overcome Republican holdouts); also thinking that he'll be empowered as temporary Speaker and that'll last until Democrats potentially re-win the majority and make Jeffries speaker. Those are the two most likely scenarios in my mind, hence my bet against any 'dark horse' candidate.