[M2K Sub] Will a "dark horse" be the next Speaker of the House?[Not McHenry/ Emmer /McCarthy/ Jeffries/ Jordan/ Scalise]

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resolved Oct 25

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YES

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This market resolves YES if anyone other than the 6 people in the screenshot below is the next speaker of the house. It resolves NO if one of those six people is the next speaker.

This is a derivative market of /SimonGrayson/who-will-be-the-next-speaker-of-the-0b49bf53ad12 . At the time of market creation, the top options are:

Collectively these six people(not counting other) have 59% of the probability right now.

I think it would be useful to bet if one of them will be the next Speaker, or if it will be one of the options in the other 41% of the probability space.

Resolution will use the same rules as the main market, with the resolution date being extended as necessary.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#🇺🇸 US Politics

#118th Congress

#Speaker of the House election

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The Boy from Bakersfield poised to make a return. He's biding his time.

predicted YES

At this point, this is basically a Yes/No on Emmer, with a very, very, very slight possibility it's Hakeem in the next Congress.

Hmm, I wonder if you can edit the options into the title. "Dark horse" is super contextual based on when this market was created - I think Emmer and McHenry would definitely have been considered dark horses in the past.

predicted YES

Fair point, tried to fit them in but it's a little clumsy

Going to try something unorthodox and throw in a large subsidy here, I think this is an important question the whole site is talking about and I think this is an important crux as we all ask "if not Jordan, who else?"

predicted NO

I'm adding it to the Subsidy Dashboard as well.

👍

Theoretically, this market should be a signal that the top 6 guys in the main market are overvalued! Which means there's a lot of mana to be made if we can identify the individual dark horses with the best chances!

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