[M2K Sub] Will a "dark horse" be the next Speaker of the House?[Not McHenry/ Emmer /McCarthy/ Jeffries/ Jordan/ Scalise]

PI•US Politics•118th Congress•Speaker of the House election

781

Ṁ50K

Ṁ3.1K

resolved Oct 25

Resolved

YES

ALL

This market resolves YES if anyone other than the 6 people in the screenshot below is the next speaker of the house. It resolves NO if one of those six people is the next speaker.

This is a derivative market of /SimonGrayson/who-will-be-the-next-speaker-of-the-0b49bf53ad12 . At the time of market creation, the top options are:

Collectively these six people(not counting other) have 59% of the probability right now.

I think it would be useful to bet if one of them will be the next Speaker, or if it will be one of the options in the other 41% of the probability space.

Resolution will use the same rules as the main market, with the resolution date being extended as necessary.

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9 Comments

56 Holders

232 Trades

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sold Ṁ244 of YES

The Boy from Bakersfield poised to make a return. He's biding his time.

predicted YES

At this point, this is basically a Yes/No on Emmer, with a very, very, very slight possibility it's Hakeem in the next Congress.

Hmm, I wonder if you can edit the options into the title. "Dark horse" is super contextual based on when this market was created - I think Emmer and McHenry would definitely have been considered dark horses in the past.

predicted YES

Fair point, tried to fit them in but it's a little clumsy

bought Ṁ30 of NO

Going to try something unorthodox and throw in a large subsidy here, I think this is an important question the whole site is talking about and I think this is an important crux as we all ask "if not Jordan, who else?"

predicted NO

I'm adding it to the Subsidy Dashboard as well.

Oh good, another opportunity for me to lose Mana 😂

sold Ṁ8 of NO

Theoretically, this market should be a signal that the top 6 guys in the main market are overvalued! Which means there's a lot of mana to be made if we can identify the individual dark horses with the best chances!

bought Ṁ20 of NO

@Joshua Good point! Although I hesitantly bet on NO. Been thinking Patrick McHenry will emerge as a consensus candidate (even picking up some votes from the Democrats to overcome Republican holdouts); also thinking that he'll be empowered as temporary Speaker and that'll last until Democrats potentially re-win the majority and make Jeffries speaker. Those are the two most likely scenarios in my mind, hence my bet against any 'dark horse' candidate.