A continuation of /Joshua/who-austin-first-choose-to-manage-a-3a5af5f2077d, /Joshua/what-four-markets-will-i-subsidize , and /Joshua/in-1-week-which-of-the-markets-i-ha
TL;DR: Austin has tasked me and several others with each putting 50,000 mana into market subsidization this month. I'm looking for markets you think should have a few extra thousand mana in them to attract attention! Over the next week I will choose some and resolve them yes.
Please submit answers in the form of a link to a market and the market title, ideally with a comment about why you think the market should be subsidized.
This time I want to double the subsidy minimum to 2000 mana!
I might subsidize some markets for less than that, but only those with 2000 mana total subsidy from Austin's program will count. Note that this can include markets that before today had less than 2000 subsidy, but which get more subsidy in the next week.
Also, because there's no limit to how many answers can resolve yes I'm opening this up to the other subsidy managers' subsidy choices too! The more subsidies the better!
Finally, I'll note that you can also highlight markets you think are a good fit for the program with the Subsidy Spotlight Tag and you can find already subsidized markets in the Subsidy Dashboard.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ114 | |
| 2 | Ṁ35 | |
| 3 | Ṁ3 |
Taking a look at the submissions! I feel like I have to be a bit choosier now that my subsidies are taxed!
This one is a public interest market for sure but I hesitate in subsidizing a free response unlinked market. Can new options be added that steal the liquidity injection? Buying some no.
This one I like! Subsidizing a market that might N/A is also weird, but I think it might be worth trying! Definitely an important question, and I feel like that 41% could be more accurate. Buying some yes.
Actually, I'm going to add the market it's contingent on to the list! I figure if I subsidize one, I should subsidize both!
This one about Tuberculosis I keep thinking about but I think it's just too hard to predict, the subsidy won't increase accuracy that much. buying no.
This one on EU elections is a good topic that could definitely use more attention. Only 2 traders right now, I am curious how extra subsidy is able to boost a market that's so low. But 2K might be a lot to put in? Not buying yes or no for now.
Finally this one which you know, I think I do like! It's a big important event, it's short-term, and I think non-US stuff like this needs more attention. Buying some yes.
Hopefully will make some decisions on these soon. But feel free to submit more based on these thoughts from me! And keep in mind that these can still resolve yes if I don't subsidize them but one of the other subsidy managers does.
@Joshua I don't like the Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah option you added. First, it already has many traders and attention, so a subsidy is unlikely to make a difference. Second, it has a significant amount of ambiguity and the resolution is likely to be controversial. There's no single, widely accepted definition of war, and if hostilities stay at a bit above the current level, it's very unclear how it will resolve.
If you want to subsidize such a market, at least go for one of the better defined ones
I just put my Ukraine war market, which for some reason just didn't get off the ground, even though I was pretty sure it would. I usually have trouble thinking about what would be the possible end states of the war in Ukraine, and which territory can be realistically retaken, and I think that market is a neat way to operationalize it that is enabled by the new unlinked multiple choice. I think the media in general is pretty bad at setting realistic expectations for the war in Ukraine, so I hope that this market can help fix that if it's subsidized.
I'm not subsidizing my own markets, so I feel free to apply here. 😸
/marketwise/which-party-will-gain-votes-in-the
At the latest polls, surprisingly many parties are currently roughly at the same percentage as they got in the 2019 election. That makes this market quite interesting for the big EU election coming in June. Also, it uses the new multiple-independent-options market which is interesting on its own.