Yglesias 2024

My 2024 predictions

Grading my 2023 predictions and looking ahead to the new year

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Will Manifold outperform Matthew Yglesias?86% chance

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Will Donald Trump win the 2024 presidential election?YES

Crystal

Will Republicans take the majority in the US Senate in 2024?YES

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Will Republicans maintain control of the House of Representatives in the 2024 elections?95% chance

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Matt Yglesias 2024 predictions: Will Democrats lose at least one senate seat outside of WV/MT/OH?58% chance

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Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: Kelly Ayotte elected governor of New HampshireYES

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Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: Josh Stein elected governor of North Carolina99% chance

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Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: No Biden change in Biden’s cabinet90% chance

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Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?YES

Crystal

Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?NO

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Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: No Supreme Court vacancy86% chance

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Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: Immigration/border/asylum legislation passes24% chance

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Will there be a US government shutdown before the end of 2024?5% chance

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Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: Pro-GOP electoral college bias diminishes from its 2020 level78% chance

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Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: Net electoral college bias continues to favor the GOP85% chance

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Will the winner of the popular vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election also win a majority in the electoral college?YES

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Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: Fed cuts interest rates at least fifty basis pointsYES

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Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: Fed cuts interest rates at least 75 basis points98% chance

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Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: Fed does not cut interest rates by more than 100 basis points91% chance

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Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: Last CPI print of the year shows annual inflation below 3%91% chance

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