Yglesias 2024

My 2024 predictions
Grading my 2023 predictions and looking ahead to the new year
1k
Will Manifold outperform Matthew Yglesias?80% chance
9.6k
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 presidential election?YES
100k
Will Republicans take the majority in the US Senate in 2024?YES
1k
Will Republicans maintain control of the House of Representatives in the 2024 elections?YES
1k
Matt Yglesias 2024 predictions: Will Democrats lose at least one senate seat outside of WV/MT/OH?YES
1k
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: Kelly Ayotte elected governor of New HampshireYES
1k
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: Josh Stein elected governor of North CarolinaYES
1k
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: No Biden change in Biden’s cabinetYES
4.2k
Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?YES
100k
Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?NO
1k
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: No Supreme Court vacancyYES
1k
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: Immigration/border/asylum legislation passesNO
2.7k
Will there be a US government shutdown before the end of 2024?N/A
1k
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: Pro-GOP electoral college bias diminishes from its 2020 levelYES
1k
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: Net electoral college bias continues to favor the GOPYES
1k
Will the winner of the popular vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election also win a majority in the electoral college?YES
1k
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: Fed cuts interest rates at least fifty basis pointsYES
1k
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: Fed cuts interest rates at least 75 basis pointsYES
1k
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: Fed does not cut interest rates by more than 100 basis pointsYES
1k
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: Last CPI print of the year shows annual inflation below 3%YES
See more questions:
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules