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Yglesias 2024
Shump
My 2024 predictions
Grading my 2023 predictions and looking ahead to the new year
Shump
Plus
Will Manifold outperform Matthew Yglesias?
86%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
42
á¹€1000
crystal ball
Plus
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 presidential election?
50%
chance
2905
á¹€9647
Brian T. Edwards
Crystal
Will Republicans take the majority in the US Senate in 2024?
82%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
457
á¹€100k
Plasma Ballin'
Plus
Will Republicans maintain control of the House of Representatives in the 2024 elections?
40%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
42
á¹€1000
Shump
Plus
Matt Yglesias 2024 predictions: Will Democrats lose at least one senate seat outside of WV/MT/OH?
58%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
20
á¹€1000
Shump
Plus
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: Kelly Ayotte elected governor of New Hampshire
55%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
19
á¹€1000
Shump
Plus
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: Josh Stein elected governor of North Carolina
95%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
19
á¹€1000
Shump
Plus
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: No Biden change in Biden’s cabinet
90%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
28
á¹€1000
BCG
Plus
Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?
YES
1956
á¹€4199
Nathan Young
Crystal
Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?
NO
6606
á¹€100k
Shump
Plus
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: No Supreme Court vacancy
86%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
29
á¹€1000
Shump
Plus
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: Immigration/border/asylum legislation passes
24%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
28
á¹€1000
Marcus Abramovitch
Plus
Will there be a US government shutdown before the end of 2024?
9%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
332
á¹€2695
Shump
Plus
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: Pro-GOP electoral college bias diminishes from its 2020 level
78%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
12
á¹€1000
Shump
Plus
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: Net electoral college bias continues to favor the GOP
85%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
24
á¹€1000
Mike Wendling
Plus
Will the winner of the popular vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election also win a majority in the electoral college?
70%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
19
á¹€1000
Shump
Plus
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: Fed cuts interest rates at least fifty basis points
YES
47
á¹€1000
Shump
Plus
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: Fed cuts interest rates at least 75 basis points
98%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
37
á¹€1000
Shump
Plus
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: Fed does not cut interest rates by more than 100 basis points
91%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
39
á¹€1000
Shump
Plus
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: Last CPI print of the year shows annual inflation below 3%
91%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
20
á¹€1000
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