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Yglesias 2024
Shump
My 2024 predictions
Grading my 2023 predictions and looking ahead to the new year
Shump
Plus
Will Manifold outperform Matthew Yglesias?
78%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
43
Ṁ1000
crystal ball
Plus
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 presidential election?
YES
2905
Ṁ9647
Brian T. Edwards
Crystal
Will Republicans take the majority in the US Senate in 2024?
YES
461
Ṁ100k
Plasma Ballin'
Plus
Will Republicans maintain control of the House of Representatives in the 2024 elections?
YES
51
Ṁ1000
Shump
Plus
Matt Yglesias 2024 predictions: Will Democrats lose at least one senate seat outside of WV/MT/OH?
98%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
28
Ṁ1000
Shump
Plus
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: Kelly Ayotte elected governor of New Hampshire
YES
20
Ṁ1000
Shump
Plus
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: Josh Stein elected governor of North Carolina
YES
21
Ṁ1000
Shump
Plus
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: No Biden change in Biden’s cabinet
94%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
29
Ṁ1000
BCG
Plus
Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?
YES
1956
Ṁ4199
Nathan Young
Crystal
Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?
NO
6606
Ṁ100k
Shump
Plus
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: No Supreme Court vacancy
86%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
30
Ṁ1000
Shump
Plus
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: Immigration/border/asylum legislation passes
23%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
29
Ṁ1000
Marcus Abramovitch
Plus
Will there be a US government shutdown before the end of 2024?
5%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
335
Ṁ2695
Shump
Plus
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: Pro-GOP electoral college bias diminishes from its 2020 level
96%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
15
Ṁ1000
Shump
Plus
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: Net electoral college bias continues to favor the GOP
85%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
24
Ṁ1000
Mike Wendling
Plus
Will the winner of the popular vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election also win a majority in the electoral college?
YES
20
Ṁ1000
Shump
Plus
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: Fed cuts interest rates at least fifty basis points
YES
47
Ṁ1000
Shump
Plus
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: Fed cuts interest rates at least 75 basis points
99%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
37
Ṁ1000
Shump
Plus
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: Fed does not cut interest rates by more than 100 basis points
91%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
39
Ṁ1000
Shump
Plus
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: Last CPI print of the year shows annual inflation below 3%
91%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
20
Ṁ1000
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