Will Manifold outperform Matthew Yglesias?
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1kṀ1373Jan 1
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On 01/14/24, I will note the percentage of all markets under the Matthew Yglesias dashboard.
At the end of the year, I will calculate brier scores for Manifold's predictions and compare to those of Yglesias's predictions. Iff Manifold has a better score, this resolves YES.
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I will use the current prediction of the KMT market, 27%, for that one, since the election will be taking place before the 14th. https://manifold.markets/JoshuaWilkes/will-the-kmt-win-the-2024-taiwanroc. Similar accommodations will be done for any markets where significant information becomes available before the 14th
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