I will use the current prediction of the KMT market, 27%, for that one, since the election will be taking place before the 14th. 

https://manifold.markets/JoshuaWilkes/will-the-kmt-win-the-2024-taiwanroc

. Similar accommodations will be done for any markets where significant information becomes available before the 14th

On 01/14/24, I will note the percentage of all markets under the 

At the end of the year, I will calculate brier scores for Manifold's predictions and compare to those of Yglesias's predictions. Iff Manifold has a better score, this resolves YES.

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