Will Manifold outperform Matthew Yglesias?
Plus
43
Ṁ1323Jan 1
78%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
On 01/14/24, I will note the percentage of all markets under the Matthew Yglesias dashboard.
At the end of the year, I will calculate brier scores for Manifold's predictions and compare to those of Yglesias's predictions. Iff Manifold has a better score, this resolves YES.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
predicts YES
I will use the current prediction of the KMT market, 27%, for that one, since the election will be taking place before the 14th. https://manifold.markets/JoshuaWilkes/will-the-kmt-win-the-2024-taiwanroc. Similar accommodations will be done for any markets where significant information becomes available before the 14th
Related questions
Related questions
Will Manifold (Closed Markets) outperform Matthew Yglesias? Live Tracking
89% chance
In the 2024 US election, will Manifold beat 538 on accuracy?
51% chance
Will @MatthewYglesias's 2024 predictions perform at least as well as his 2023 predictions by his own assessment?
32% chance
In the 2024 US election, will Manifold be within the top 25% accuracy among all large prediction markets?
56% chance
Will Manifold be more accurate than Polymarket in forecasting the 2024 election?
45% chance
Will Manifold be in the NYT again before the end of 2024?
39% chance
Will Manifold's 2024 general election predictions outperform FiveThirtyEight's?
55% chance
2024 predictions - Matthew Yglesias vs Manifold: No recession in 2024
70% chance
Will Manifold outperform Metaculus in the 2024 ACX Contest?
18% chance
2024 predictions - Matthew Yglesias vs Manifold: S&P 500 is up for the year
67% chance