Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: Pro-GOP electoral college bias diminishes from its 2020 level
➕
Plus
16
Ṁ3670
Jan 1
96%
chance

https://www.slowboring.com/p/my-2024-predictions

This is a prediction from Matthew Yglesias's 2024 predictions. I will be resolving early when possible but in cases of ambiguity, the ultimate source of truth is Matt's evaluation.

Matt predicts 80% for this question

Matt's calibration for reference:

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:
bought Ṁ100 NO

Harris has a bigger EC shortfall than Biden, so the switch pushes against this

The description for this one said "dimishes from its 2024 level". That's just a typo, right?

@Shump Seems likely.

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules