Matt Yglesias 2024 predictions: Will Democrats lose at least one senate seat outside of WV/MT/OH?

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resolved Jan 26

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YES

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https://www.slowboring.com/p/my-2024-predictions

This is a prediction from Matthew Yglesias's 2024 predictions. I will be resolving early when possible but in cases of ambiguity the ultimate source of truth is Matt's evaluation.

For this market, to make things clearer, I will include King (I-ME) as a Democrat. This will hold even if Matt judges differently

Matt predicts 60% for this question

Matt's calibration for reference:

2024 Matt Yglesias Predictions

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bought Ṁ750 YES

PA Senate almost certainly flipping to McCormick

Which way does he count King (I-ME), who like Sanders (I-VT) habitually caucuses with the Dems?

@Lorxus I will rule that he counts as a democrat for the purpose of this market. I don't know what Matt thinks.

@Shump I mean his seat is pretty safe so probably this is a moot point but better to get out ahead of such things.

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