https://www.slowboring.com/p/my-2024-predictions

This is a prediction from Matthew Yglesias's 2024 predictions. I will be resolving early when possible but in cases of ambiguity the ultimate source of truth is Matt's evaluation.

For this market, to make things clearer, I will include King (I-ME) as a Democrat. This will hold even if Matt judges differently

Matt predicts 60% for this question

Matt's calibration for reference: