Will Donald Trump win the 2024 presidential election?
937
6.1K
3.5K
2024
35%
chance

as reported by the BBC

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CronoSaturn avatar
CronoSaturnbought Ṁ100 of YES

Trump is currently favoured to win the Republican primary (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/) and he’s currently seen more favourably then biden. (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/ vs https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/)

Recent reporting from abc, Reuters and the New York Times also have trump winning vs biden.

(https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/05/us/politics/biden-trump-2024-poll.html

https://abcnews.go.com/amp/Politics/troubles-biden-age-reelection-campaign-poll/story?id=103436611

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/biden-trails-trump-states-likely-decide-2024-us-election-polls-show-2023-11-05/)

A crude and very approximate estimate of trumps chances would be 80% to get the Republican nomination and at least an even chance that being achieved to get the presidency - putting his odds around 40% and that’s being very generous to NO here, betting odds have provided a far higher level of implied confidence.

I also don’t see much to change this - there’s little controversy trump could possibly be involved with that could rival his existing record.

Biden is also the incumbent and so the election will be for many an evaluation of his performance to date - which as polling indicates Americans have largely found lacking.

Long story short - I don’t see how the current price can be justified to be this in favour of NO.

BennyBoy avatar
BennyBoypredicts NO

@CronoSaturn Review the details of his first trial which is in March next year. He will be convicted with very high probability. If he is convicted, there is strong polling data that shows Trump will easily lose the presidential election. Just fyi this is why many still put Trump at what you perceive to be under market odds. However if you see this logic as flawed, feel free to invest.

DavidBolin avatar
David Bolin bought Ṁ10 YES at 35%
nottelling2ccc avatar
not tellingbought Ṁ0 of NO

@BennyBoy Trump doesn’t have a trial next year. He has several. Things aren’t looking too good for him on the legal front.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2023/11/22/when-trump-trials-2024-schedule/71637316007/

conradgetty avatar
Conrad Getty

surely a guy that called for the suspension of the constitution has no chance of ever winning a us election ever again, the american people, especially republican patriots, hate authoritarians that disrespect the founding principles of their cherished nation

fb68 avatar
Юрий Бурак

Is there way to filter americans out? They aren't a good source of information who wins next election

DanielParker avatar
Daniel Parkerpredicts YES

@fb68 Technically, since you need to be American citizenship in order to be eligible to vote, Americans (as a whole) are (in theory) the best source of information about who will win the next election. In fact, the definitive answer to the question will rely on a poll which is scheduled to occur on Tuesday, November 5, 2024.

The subset of American citizens who vote on Manifold, of course, may not be representative of the entire population. I guess that's the group of people that you are maligning here for their allegedly inaccurate votes in this market?

TheBayesian avatar
TheBayesian

@fb68 I’ll add that if you think this you can bet against american bettors and turn a profit!

fb68 avatar
Юрий Буракpredicts YES

@TheBayesian well, opposite to stupidity isn't intelligence, if you count the rationalist ideas

TheBayesian avatar
TheBayesian

@fb68 buying the opposite of a market-moving stupid bet, if the market was previously correctly calibrated, is actually intelligence!
Every bet is exploitable, except the one that moves the market probability within floating point inaccuracy (maybe hyperbole idk impl details) of the correct market probability.
(if anyone knows this to be wrong correct me, this is just my understanding of things)

fb68 avatar
Юрий Бурак bought Ṁ100 YES from 33% to 36%
TheBayesian avatar
TheBayesian bought Ṁ150 NO from 36% to 34%
Boojum avatar
Boojumbought Ṁ85 of NO

If Trump wins USA is the stupidest people group on this planet 😂

dgga avatar
duN bought Ṁ69 NO at 32%
Unknown user avatar
Unknown user avatar
2 traders bought Ṁ35 YES
MartinRandall avatar
Martin Randallbought Ṁ10 of YES

@Boojum Confused why this comment came with a NO bet.

RobertCousineau avatar
Robert Cousineau bought Ṁ42 NO from 34% to 33%
TiredCliche avatar
Forrest Taylorsold Ṁ73 of NO

NYT sienna poll looking good for Trump.

VerySeriousPoster avatar
VerySeriousPosterpredicts NO

@TiredCliche The number of these where Trump is close to clearing 50% is eye-popping. Nearly 70% of Biden's own party thinks he's too old to run. I would have predicted this issue would have a net-neutral effect given Trump is basically the same age, but I suppose Trump's own age hasn't been discussed as much due to other narratives.

If the election were today Trump would likely take it. Time to dump my shares.

WieDan avatar
Wie Danbought Ṁ26 of YES

MP avatar
MPpredicts YES

@WieDan but would they vote for Trump? Or just don't vote?

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwardspredicts NO

@MP They will vote for Biden. They certainly aren't going to vote for the guy vowing to ban anyone from coming into the US from a Muslim country. Trump double down on this last week. Another example of him not even taking running for president seriously, just rerunning the hits from his last tour.

MP avatar
MPpredicts YES

@BTE that's my feeling too

People aren't excited about Joey, but they nonetheless vote

https://youtu.be/KGmXGkIr7w0?si=fh2_Jg8ZhHd8vM3o

WieDan avatar
Wie Danpredicts YES

@MP Just stay home

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwardsbought Ṁ1,000 of NO

@WieDan I love all these Europeans who think they know something about US politics. Trump has no chance. Polls mean nothing.

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwardspredicts NO

Australians too.

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwardspredicts NO

@BTE The polls yesterday that said Trump leading Biden also said he is getting crushed by Biden if he is convicted. It’s over.

ShadowyZephyr avatar

@BTE Do you understand trumps propaganda strategy? They will still vote for him. Maybe not if he gets convicted quickly but that’s not even a given.

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwardspredicts NO

@ShadowyZephyr It is literally the only thing he is good at propaganda. The media wants nothing more than for you and others to believe Trump has a chance. I am totally fine with taking you mana.

dgga avatar
duN

@WieDan the muslim demographic will never vote for Trump. Even if they somehow forgot how Trump tried to ban muslims from entering the US, everyone knows Trump is probably one of the most pro-Israel politicians in the entire country and will never give a single shit about Palestinians.

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwardspredicts NO

@dgga Trump will remind them and everyone he plans to ban Muslims again.

dgga avatar
duN

@BTE People love to cope. The next president was decided when Roe vs Wade was struck down. Republicans have no chance.

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwardspredicts NO

@dgga Completely agree.

AlexCao avatar
Allahu Akbarbought Ṁ20 of YES

@dgga yep. Just like 2016😂

dgga avatar
duNpredicts NO

@AlexCao I'm sorry did the supreme court overturn the federal right to abortion in -16, too, leading to republican majority states banning it? I don't think so. The thing is you - and other people whom it doesn't really concern - may have forgotten by now, but the people whom it does concern will never vote republican ever again. You can keep coping but your party started tying a noose with the disregard towards peaceful transfer of power in 2021 and ultimately kicked the chair in Jan 2023. If I had the money to invest in it, I would bet a significant amount that we won't see a (democratically elected) republican president before 2040.

PlasmaBallin avatar
Plasma Ballin'predicts YES

@dgga Bold prediction, I think I'll make a market for that once I have a balance >50.

dgga avatar
duNpredicts NO

@JosephNoonan unfortunately I have no interest in markets with a resolution date beyond ~1.5 years on manifold, but go ahead.

MartinRandall avatar
Martin Randallpredicts YES

@dgga

Made this one for you

/MartinRandall/when-next-republican-president

Just before I read your comment saying you didn't actually want to bet in it!

PlasmaBallin avatar
Plasma Ballin'predicts YES

@dgga Here's the one I made. I changed the date to 2038 since there probably won't be a president inaugurated between 2037 and 2040.

dgga avatar
duNpredicts NO

@MartinRandall sorry for that. I specifically mentioned 'money' because I would jump at the opportunity of having trumpets fund my retirement. When it comes to internet points I get zero excitement from tying them up for 15 years when I can use them for all kinds of dopamine-inducing shenanigans in the short-term.

dgga avatar
duNpredicts NO

@MartinRandall I'm dumb and just realized your market does allow me to cash out each election cycle so I will be participating in that one

AlexCao avatar
Allahu Akbarpredicts YES

@dgga people forget things quickly. you surely don't remember how enthusiastically Joe Biden was against de-segregation laws, nor do you remember the series of "anti-crime" bills he passed targeting African Americans. And yes, I'm sure Roe v. Wade was upsetting to you because people like you are privileged enough that abortion is one of the few issues that actually matter to you. you can cope all you want, but Joe Biden has already proven to be a completely incompetent president, and the result of the 2024 election is murky at best.

TiredCliche avatar
Forrest Taylorpredicts YES

@AlexCao I wasn't even born yet when the things you're talking about happened- I doubt you were either.

Regarding Dobbs mattering only to privileged elites, hey- did you see that tonight Ohio voted to enshrine the right to abortion in their state constitution? Ignore this at your peril, it turns out quite a lot of Americans really did not like Roe being overturned. @dgga is exaggerating the salience, but anti-abortion has been on the ballot at my count ten or eleven times since Dobbs, and it only ever goes one way. Shit, even MONTANA rejected a pro-life ballot measure.

dgga avatar
duNpredicts NO

@AlexCao The huge difference between the issues you pointed out, and the abortion issue, is that Biden has changed his view, or at least his politics, as the general sentiment of the population has progressed. A pro-life politician/party won't, and indeed can't without restructuring their entire epistemological reasoning, change their mind on the abortion issue regardless of the way the general sentiment progresses. And, you may disagree, but just by looking at the rest of the western world, the abortion issue ain't progressing towards pro-life.

It's a lot easier for me to forgive a politician for being wrong on on an issue and changing their mind about it as the world progresses, than to forgive a politician for stubbornly pushing against the currents to bring us back to the 50's because they believe a book written 2000 years ago should dictate the way modern society is ran.

PlasmaBallin avatar
Plasma Ballin'predicts YES

@AlexCao Aside from the things that have already been mentioned, Biden's crime bill can't possibly have the same political salience as the RvW overturn because anyone who opposes Biden because of the crime law would have to oppose Republicans even more strongly, since Republicans are a lot farther on the "tough on crime" end of the spectrum than Biden. Biden is currently seen by many voters as too weak on crime, so a criticism of him for a "tough on crime" law isn't really going to land (except with people further left than Biden, who certainly aren't voting for Trump), and would undermine one of the biggest current Republican arguments against him.

And yeah, I don't think using an example that happened almost 30 years ago is a good example of voters forgetting quickly. I'm sure they will forget eventually, but the Dobbs decision happened less than 2 years ago.

TiredCliche avatar
Forrest Taylorpredicts YES

@JosephNoonan Arguably doing this cut against Trump with some voters, in 2020 trump did spend a lot of time talking about the "first step act" and his "platinum plan for black America." I don't know how much of a benefit he got out of doing that, but it definitely turned some off.

AlexCao avatar
Allahu Akbarpredicts YES

@dgga I never said that people like Roe v. Wade overturned, I don't understand how you got that impression. What I am saying is that for many people abortion is definitely not the issue that they care about the most, and the fact that Biden pretty much failed at anything he tried to accomplish is not gonna do him any favor.

TiredCliche avatar
Forrest Taylorpredicts YES

@AlexCao except for the infrastructure bill, the gun safety bill, the semiconductor bill, and the lowering of drug prices, and the gay marriage bill, I think you're right

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwardspredicts NO

@AlexCao don't forget winning elections Biden crushes elections.

dgga avatar
duNpredicts NO

@AlexCao It's almost comical to say Biden didn't get anything done when he has been legislatively one of the most effective presidents in the last 50 years. And meanwhile you keep, for whatever reason, running apologetics for this loser who actually didn't get anything done in the office.

TiredCliche avatar
Forrest Taylorpredicts YES

@dgga hey, he got some stuff done. A huge tax cut for corporations and the wealthy. Rebuilt some wall. Assassinated a military leader of another country in peacetime. Operation Warp Speed. His son in law mediated a peace accord between Israel and UAE/Bahrain/Morocco.

AlexCao avatar
Allahu Akbarpredicts YES

@TiredCliche You're right. Forget the job-killing climate bill, forget the fact that he upheld Trump-era immigration policies, forget the fact that there are two wars going on and that he is actively supporting genocide despite the majority of both Republicans and Democrats wanting a cease-fire, at least we got gun control! Surely there won't be any school shootings after we banned large-sized magazines!

AlexCao avatar
Allahu Akbarpredicts YES

@dgga "legislatively one of the most effective presidents" I genuinely can't tell if you're trolling or not. Also as far as I recall the only thing I said was in critical of Biden and I never said anything in support of Trump, so either you're only capable of counting to 2, which explains why you think every argument can only have two sides, or you didn't read what I wrote.

TiredCliche avatar
Forrest Taylorpredicts YES

@AlexCao You said he pretty much failed at anything he tried to accomplish. Now you seem to have dropped that and are criticizing him on his accomplishments from kind of a libertarian left perspective, except not caring much about abortion. That's fine, do whatever you like, but it is a big shift in the point you were making. I'm not here to try and convince anyone who to vote for, I'm here to make accurate predictions.

Anyway, the Dobbs effect is a real thing, this can no longer be denied by anyone serious.

AlexCao avatar
Allahu Akbarpredicts YES

@TiredCliche There is no shift in my claim: I said "fail" as in "making things worse", rather than "not being able to do", but yes, I should have made that more clear. And also you're making your argument really convincing by having YES shares.

TiredCliche avatar
Forrest Taylor bought Ṁ20 YES from 34% to 35%