as reported by the BBC
Lol, this market is trading at 25%. The Biden market is at 54% ish. Manifold can't be real that they think that Don has a more than 50% odd of not being nominated
@MP This is severely underestimated, since Biden is polling about the same or a couple percentage points below Trump + Trump is historically underrated in polls because he calls them fake news.
Trump’s odds should be a couple percentage points higher than Biden’s based on this. Even in other prediction communities he is underestimated, but 20% is the lowest I’ve seen.
(Not saying this because I’m a Trump supporter, I hate him, just trying to be objective here)
@ShadowyZephyr Seems a situation of accumulating this market here
Betting that voters don't care sufficiently about sexual assault or hush money to change the odds.
@MartinRandall Trump could point blank kill a person and Donald Trump voters would still get on two knees and milk him dry
Considering Trump is beating DeSantis in the Republican primary polls, and matching Biden in the democratic polls, I can't see why he shouldn't be even higher than that.
Either Predictit or manifold is way off:
They are at 33 while we are at 21.
Adding up all the percentages on the PredictIt page, I get 110% so there is that to consider. But still.
@JimAusman Metaculus is at 25.
@JimAusman I’m only in the Yes market under the assumption Trump gets the primary nomination and I expect the market to jump a bit. I don’t think he can sin
@NGK oh he can sin baby, didn't you see the headlines today?!?
@BTE God almighty Trump is a sinless man who can never do wrong. It’s a witch-hunt against the greatest president of our time and soon enough he will drain the swamp that is Washington and bring peace, freedom and justice! It’s all fake libtard news and George Soros is behind this witch! The jury was rigged and they’re all being funded by the deep Biden crime family state.
@NGK Haha the sad part is that I can't even tell if you're joking or not. Some people unironically believe this.
@ShadowyZephyr I say that's the SCARY part!!
@ShadowyZephyr SHOW ME HUNTER BIDEN’s THROBBING COCK
@BrendanFinan rfk has 5.6 percent chance of winning dem nomination and 5 percent chance of winning general?! Name recognition breaks polls I guess?
@BTE More reason that Trump is higher.
@BTE correct, EBO uses a lot of Brit prediction markets, which inaccurately trade well-known candidates like HRC and DJT higher
You should promote this market here!
Does the BBC call foreign countries elections?
@MP https://www.bbc.com/news/election/us2020/results seems like they might use some other source for this call, but it does look like they called the 2020 election for Biden
@MP Okay, I selected the BBC just because every one of the American media outlets has a „bias“. What I mean is when the BBC writes
„Trump wins election“.
@MP downing street
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 presidential election?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition