as reported by the BBC
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You think that is bad? There're like 50 bets on when Jimmy Carter is gonna die.
Also way too much internet drama trash.
@admissions huh? Imagine calling yourself a rationalist and thinking none of them are legitimate, or that someone running for president should have immunity from prosecution.
@ShakedKoplewitz not that I call myself a rationalist anyways, but there is no way to come to the conclusion that Trump is innocent of everything he is being charged with, unless you have not read the indictments. And even considering bias and human failings it's not very rationalist to publicly exclaim your opinion with full certainty without having read the source material.
Rationalism is not about the conclusions, it's about how you got there, no?
@dgga "imagine calling yourself a rationalist and thinking X" is a bad argument in general, even more so when arguing with people who haven't actually called themselves rationalist.
@ShakedKoplewitz Imagine calling yourself a rationalist and using the phrase “imagine calling yourself a rationalist” as an argument
Imagine it is 3am in the morning. Ring-a-ling-a-ding-dong! Red phone is ringing in the White House with the big emergency. Iran is sending secret missiles surprise to the neighborhood! Who is picking up the phone in the White House? Sleepy Joe is still dreaming of the corvettes and puppies, sleeping off the cocaine lows and melatonin gummies. Will take 20 minutes before he can take the sleep apnea mask off for answering the phone. Trump is already taking the dump on toilet, up and ready, sits back down because foot is asleep, tells Stephen Miller forward the call to the celly I'll take it on the John. Bing-bong-bing, 5 minutes later missiles are flying for the Ayotallah and Trump and the Roger Stone are railing the lines off Bannons buttocks. Vote for the America you are wanting! 👍
Holy 👼💦 fucking shit 💩👍 there ✔ are TOO 🤡 MANY 💯 2024 ELECTION 💲 MARKETS. ⚰⚰ I 👁 hope 😇🏿 whatever the 👏 pivot involves will ❓ shift incentives to ⚠😤 have fewer of 😫 them. 🌈👦 Seriously, 😒 every 🏦👏 fucking 😈👏 date, 📅👫 every fucking threshold, 🤝 there's 😍 a market. 📈🏦 ITS ⚜ A RANDOM 🔀 NUMBER 📲😧 GENERATOR. ⁉ Jesus, 🙀 I 🐑 hate 😒 hate hate that I'm 👁 incentivised to 🙊 spend 💰💰 any 👏💦 time at 🗽🕛 all 🍆✊ thinking about ✨👌 it. 😑😳 I am going ➡ mad. 💰😤 MAKE 📣📣 IT 🤷😱 STOP ❌
@Mirek lol at the idea that your “incentivized to spend time thinking about it” as if you have no choice but to care about every market because you could get a play money currency
@DylanSlagh Someone has to be thinking of it! You sure are not. Every day, weight of the world is on the shoulders of myself and my mutter.We wake up thinking of the markets. We check the news, is Trump or Biden the president? And then we just are taking the info needing to predict, but there are more and more and more markets. How can I make it in America?
@Mirek in all seriousness, I get so bogged down in the hoarder's house that is Manifold that I get tired of looking for high quality markets amidst all of the nonsense. And to quote your emoji-filled rant, "🍆"
@AlQuinn What; not a fan of sports betting, stocks betting, will One Piece die before Jimmy Carter's codpiece, will Elon twit before Destiny twats, or daily coin flip reruns, are we?
@traders If he is not winning it, my uncle is having a home in the Turkmenistan and I am going to live in there! I know maybe you are saying yes, just go now. Do not saying it, for our country needs the minds of us here. Please make the right guessing here!
@admissions Counterpoint: Joe Biden is in office, and mana still seems to be useful for a few things.
@admissions I appreciate your interpretation, but I'm asking what the numbers are a measure of. The graph says "Change from Year Ago". What change?
@admissions Ah. I see. I just didn't know what M2 meant. I didn't study macroeconomics. Thanks for pointing that out.
It shows that the libs made the whole world miserable just to look virtuous during COVID.
"The libs" were in power in 2020?
@Gabrielle In response to covid lockdows which were a liberal idea. I agree that Trump's handling of it was despicable with him listening to that vile woman Deborah Birx and doing lockdowns, and I wish DeSantis was electable, but he isn't. Still it was nothing in terms of destroying the economy compared to what the far left Democrats want to do.
@admissions You think the lockdowns were a net negative? What do you think would have happened without them? What would have happened if they had been more strictly-enforced? What would have happened if travel from infected countries like China and Italy had been restricted?
Do you agree with Trump's HHS appointee's strategy for dealing with the pandemic?
Infants, kids, teens, young people, young adults, middle aged with no conditions etc. have zero to little risk….so we use them to develop herd [immunity]…we want them infected…and recovered...with antibodies"
You think the lockdowns were a net negative?
Yes, even for the society as a whole.
It has always been completely unfathomable to me why so much effort had to be expended to shave a few percentage points of risk due to this particular cause.
What do you think would have happened without them?
Whatever happened in Sweden - nothing bad compared to elsewhere.
What would have happened if they had been more strictly-enforced?
We would have a society more similar to the Chinese. Now no increase in life expectancy is worth having a society like the Chinese.
What would have happened if travel from infected countries like China and Italy had been restricted?
There was never a clear separation of infected and non-infected countries, so not practicable.
Do you agree with Trump's HHS appointee's strategy for dealing with the pandemic?
Yes, I find it morally unacceptable to sacrifice the young to protect the old.
Yes, I find it morally unacceptable to sacrifice the young to protect the old.
Wouldn't that mean you disagree with the Trump appointee's strategy?
@admissions The lockdowns being a net negative is an arguable position, I think there is some merit to the no lockdown strategy, when you look at countries like Sweden that just let the virus spread (although that is just one piece of evidence and there are other factors involved). I lean towards the harsher lockdowns being a negative but I agree with most of the initiatives taken at the time like social distancing.
However, calling the Dems “far-left” is indefensible. They are center-left when compared to the average American, and when compared to the average globally, center to center-right.
The Democratic Party platform has never been far-left, and probably never will be.
@admissions globally, it's not nearly that straightforward. Democrats definitely contain far-left wings, and even moderate democrats aren't "center-right globally" on most issues, though that one varies a lot by issue.
Domestically though, Democrats definitely aren't center left compared to the average American - they actually lean significantly further left than would be electorally optimal for a center-left party, since their staffers and strategists mostly come from politically active highly educated subgroups who tens to lean much further left than most Americans.
On the other hand "all democrats are far left crazies" is also very wrong. Lots of democrats actually are moderate.
Democrats are in favor of 9 month abortions, more open borders, lighter crime sentencing, higher tax rates, transitioning children and equity over equalityvv. In what world is this a “center right” party?? Europe is more right wing on most of these issues.
Wouldn't that mean you disagree with the Trump appointee's strategy?
@Snarflak No! COVID is and has always been an insignificant risk to any healthy person under X years old (where X is somewhere around 40-50). A good heuristic is that the risk of death & serious sequelae due to contracting COVID is equal to a yearly risk due to all other health-related factors combined for the given age.
The only logical (but assuming value system foreign to me) argument for locking down young people has been the inability (which I also disagree with) to confine the spread to young people only.
COVID is and has always been an insignificant risk to any healthy person under X years old (where X is somewhere around 40-50).
If I'm reading the data correctly, 74,872 people under 50 died of COVID. If the Trump strategy of infecting as many young people as possible had been fully implemented instead of using lockdowns, how much higher would that number be?
And you think this strategy of intentionally infecting people, resulting in the deaths of tens or hundreds of thousands, is morally acceptable? Sacrificing the young to protect the old through herd immunity is morally acceptable?
@Snarflak I don't know what data you are using, but...
https://wintoncentre.maths.cam.ac.uk/coronavirus/how-have-covid-19-fatalities-compared-other-causes-death/
@admissions Sweden didn't do lockdowns, and they didn't suffer that much worse through the pandemic than did other countries in terms of deaths, but avoided a lot of the economic turmoil caused by lockdowns.
Also consider 80% of the people who die of COVID have some other disease. Only 20% are healthy individuals. A lot of them would have died so some other cause soon, if not COVID, which inflates the numbers for COVID a bit. The small amount of extra people who may have died is probably much less than the number of people severely affected by the economic complications from COVID.
@ShadowyZephyr You've heard this talking point long time ago, and have never sat down for looking at the nuance. It's the reason Trump will be winning. So many people like this in America, no nuance, just the headlines. They are looking for any reason to voting for the Trump. Why? Maybe last few years have been boring with not much entertaining and conflict is making things so much more interesting for us humans. Now I am waking up in the morning, what did the Biden tweet? Oh. Ok. Give me the juicy fruit early in the morning so I can get the outraged or happy because others are outraged! This is the typical American way, just carefree no consequences thinking.