Basic
2.4k
2.6M
Oct 9
67%
chance

as reported by the BBC

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In a sense I think trump looking more likely is going to work against him in the election as the left won't feel safe so more will come out to vote. Where as conservatives seem very overly confident at the moment meaning less of them may feel the need to vote.

(I know nothing about this and I am just rambling)

Conservatives know that they must overcome a massive level of fraud and non-citizen voting, so they will come out no matter what the polls say

@lukres lmao you live in a fabricated reality

This question is out of curiosity and has no ill intent. Why do conservatives think the election was stolen? I never understood that line of reasoning Because why can't they accept the fact that more than half the country disagrees with far right narratives

@AndrewCrosse the 'why' is easy. Because they lost and they hate losing. So much so that they'd rather invent another reality where everyone on the other side is simultaneously an idiot and also perfectly coordinated to conspire against them. And at that they are so proficient that they never leave any proof of any wrongdoing.

The 'how' is the more interesting question.

I agree. The utter brainrot that those conspiracy theories cause needs to be studied

Hey as a neutral observer, I'll just point out @lukres has a much better calibration than you, so if this is in fact a delusion of his, it is perhaps a relatively rare one.

I have seen laid out circumstantial cases for voting fraud, but no credible hard evidence. Since so many people beleive in Orange Covfefe = Hitler, I can see honorable people with such belief thinking they are saving the country by bending or breaking rules at the margin. If people weren't so batshit over politics, I'd have a higher level of trust. Scott Adams, as an example, sees fraud as likely (though maybe not significant) given the high level of decay in our institutions.

If we're playing status games, I have higher calibration than @lukres and back the claim that the "stolen election" thing is some batshit conspiracy theorizing (further demonstrated by the fact that the most credible person to consider it likely is Scott Adams, who's noted for being pretty nuts in general).

Pretty much everyone on manifold makes more mana than me lol.

As a post-rationalist, I find Scott Adams to be very insightful. He has a bad grasp on many object-level issues, but he has a very good anti-bs filter and his views on the possibility of voter fraud are actually quite nuanced. His rhetorical style doesn't really win support from normies since many of his bold contrarian declarations are intended to extend the Overton window rather than be taken completely literally. He is ridiculous and a little nuts but no crazier than the typical human.

@AlQuinn

Scott Adams, as an example, sees fraud as likely (though maybe not significant) given the high level of decay in our institutions.

What a meaningless motte-and-bailey statement. Nobody is denying that some fraud or mistakes can happen when hundreds of millions of votes are cast and ballots are counted. The difference between "some non-significant" fraud and "enough to turn around a POTUS election" fraud is about five orders of magnitude.

You know almost every single one of Team Trump's election fraud lawsuits were dismissed, his lawyers faced ethics sactions and some were disbarred for "frivolous conduct", and Dominion destroyed Fox News with the defamation lawsuit, right? You know, because they knew they were lying on air, and they left proof that they know they were lying. Unlike the shadow-cabal dems who somehow left no proof of the fraud itself?

Yes it is absolutely delusional to think Trump lost due to fraud and no wish-washing is going to change that.

@AlQuinn
1) Past performance does not indicate future performance.
2) Someone can be smart, reliable, and right in certain scopes and completely idiotic in others.
3) People have wasted a lot of time, energy, money, and mental health following strangers that they trust.
4) Arguments from credibility are the antithesis of markets. That said, manifold has a twitter-like comment section so derailed conversation is bound to happen... and here I am, so I'll stop talking now.

Let's separate two issues. First, whether conservative voters believe there is widespread election fraud, which is the question relevant to the original post in this thread. I think definitely yes, and there has been a concerted effort by influencers such as Jack Posobiec to use this belief to increase the urgency to vote.

Second, whether there has been widespread election fraud. As you point out, no hard evidence has come up so far. I don't have any good arguments to make, I am just pattern matching and the whole thing is, as Elon Musk says, "concerning".

1) actually, for forecasting, past performance is a strong indicator of future performance. I mostly agree with your other points though.

You guys have very similar profits and calibrations. Given the statistical uncertainty, it doesn't make sense to claim any one of you is materially better than the others based on the scores.

One of the favorite political thinkers of mine is the Bill Maher and he has been thinking it will be so from the start. The choice for not candidate swapping for the democrat has been the big mistake! Now the majority troubles for the country will be beginning even more! But troubles is profitable. Thanks Biden!!!

Donald Trump is a criminal and should be locked up behind bars. Biden is gonna beat his sorry orange bum in November

bought Ṁ1,000 YES from 60% to 63%

I feel like a god

@AndrewCrosse Let's try to keep this comment section productive. We might take a higher-touch moderation strategy for the most popular markets like this one.

Lol I new that would happen. I just had a little power trip when I realized I could influenced the market to move 10percent just by commenting. I didn't use it to profit though in fact I left the market after I saw it move as much as it did. But I'ma chill out

@AndrewCrosse No, I am sorry, you are doing nothing wrong for us here. Just a little of the snark maybe this morning with such a comment that is ridiculous. Your comments make it more fun for us here sometimes, it is important!

bought Ṁ50 NO

I think Donald Trump is the worst human of all time

bought Ṁ1,000 YES from 59% to 62%

Holy cow I feel like Elon musk my very words are enough to move markets I'm gonna go on a power trip

bought Ṁ500 YES from 58% to 60%

King George was worse

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