Oct 9

as reported by the BBC

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The Florida Supreme Court may have given Biden a boost by putting both abortion and legalized weed on the ballot.

@traders If he is not winning it, my uncle is having a home in the Turkmenistan and I am going to live in there! I know maybe you are saying yes, just go now. Do not saying it, for our country needs the minds of us here. Please make the right guessing here!

I think you simply underestimate how unpalatable old-man-Biden is. I recognize that stumbling over words doesn't necessarily mean you're mentally impaired, but it sounds like it, and that's enough to destroy confidence.

bought Ṁ8,400 YES

No point in having mana if socialists win, so might as well put all on the orange guy

@admissions Orange Face!

@admissions Counterpoint: Joe Biden is in office, and mana still seems to be useful for a few things.

@nottelling2ccc But the inflation!

bought Ṁ1,250 YES

@admissions I bind my fate to the Orange One

@admissions Exactly. It won't be long before our mana is taxed an given to the poor

I’m surprised there’s no bump after Truth set to go public

@thepurplebull I don't see how it's going to help much.

@nottelling2ccc Because he’s had a money problem since the campaign started

bought Ṁ10 YES


This feels right

In Trump vs Biden 2020. Biden did almost no campaigning. He had a basement campaign strategy. In Trump vs Biden 2024, Trump could be forced in a courtroom campaig strategy. Will less prove to be more again?

Obviously the answer to that is polls are the most objective source of hard information available and diverging from polls requires you to take less measurable aspects into account.

@AmandaSmith Polls are "Soft" information if anything. Fundraising is much more of a "hard" metric since it involves putting skin in the game.

@BTE fundraising has massively diminishing returns though, once you have e.g. 100m, an extra billion on top of that to plaster the airwaves isn't doing much

@BTE If that were true, don’t you think ppl would be able to make really good election predictions using fundraising numbers?

@benshindel I didn't say it was useful for predicting necessarily, I just said it was hard data because it requires more than just your time. It also is a measure of enthusiasm among the base, so it might have some predictive value. I haven't thought about it too much.

@SemioticRivalry Trump is spending more than he is raising and has made no secret that the priority is legal bills, not ad buys. Plus the inability for the campaign to contribute to down ballot races is going to hurt turnout.

@BTE trump ended up with 700m in 2020, even if he gets only 150m that's more than enough, not even counting the massive amount of outside money on both sides that always comes in

@AmandaSmith 538 has historically had polls-only/polls-plus models and iirc the polls plus models performed slightly better, but even the polls plus models are mostly polls nd you do have to be careful about the extra information you use.

@SemioticRivalry I also think you are making that statement based on a sample size of zero. Name the last successful presidential campaign that had a shoestring budget of $100mm?? Like Reagan raised that much I bet m. Maybe even Nixon had more than $100mm in his campaign in the 70s!! $100mm in 2024 dollars?? Good luck with that haha. Where is he gonna buy add space, truth social?? 💸💸

@BTE I think money is generally most useful in raising name recognition, which both candidates already have. If money was a magic persuasion/turnout button, I'd expect pretty different results in e.g. 2020 senate races, where Dems outspent by truly shocking amounts and still way underperformed.

@ShakedKoplewitz this is exactly correct; I also think the polls plus model didn't even use finances tbh? mostly things like incumbency, the economy, etc

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