4
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 presidential election?
256
closes 2024
26%
chance

as reported by the BBC

Sort by:
MP avatar
MPbought Ṁ100 of YES

Lol, this market is trading at 25%. The Biden market is at 54% ish. Manifold can't be real that they think that Don has a more than 50% odd of not being nominated

ShadowyZephyr avatar
ShadowyZephyris predicting YES at 25%

@MP This is severely underestimated, since Biden is polling about the same or a couple percentage points below Trump + Trump is historically underrated in polls because he calls them fake news.

Trump’s odds should be a couple percentage points higher than Biden’s based on this. Even in other prediction communities he is underestimated, but 20% is the lowest I’ve seen.

(Not saying this because I’m a Trump supporter, I hate him, just trying to be objective here)

MP avatar
MPis predicting YES at 25%

@ShadowyZephyr Seems a situation of accumulating this market here

NGK avatar
NGKbought Ṁ0 of YES
MartinRandall avatar
Martin Randallbought Ṁ9 of YES

Betting that voters don't care sufficiently about sexual assault or hush money to change the odds.

NGK avatar
NGKis predicting YES at 25%

@MartinRandall Trump could point blank kill a person and Donald Trump voters would still get on two knees and milk him dry

ShadowyZephyr avatar
ShadowyZephyris predicting YES at 24%

Considering Trump is beating DeSantis in the Republican primary polls, and matching Biden in the democratic polls, I can't see why he shouldn't be even higher than that.

JimAusman avatar
Jimis predicting YES at 21%

Either Predictit or manifold is way off:

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7456/Who-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election

They are at 33 while we are at 21.

Adding up all the percentages on the PredictIt page, I get 110% so there is that to consider. But still.

NGK avatar
NGKis predicting YES at 21%

@JimAusman I’m only in the Yes market under the assumption Trump gets the primary nomination and I expect the market to jump a bit. I don’t think he can sin

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwardsis predicting NO at 24%

@NGK oh he can sin baby, didn't you see the headlines today?!?

NGK avatar
NGKis predicting YES at 24%

@BTE God almighty Trump is a sinless man who can never do wrong. It’s a witch-hunt against the greatest president of our time and soon enough he will drain the swamp that is Washington and bring peace, freedom and justice! It’s all fake libtard news and George Soros is behind this witch! The jury was rigged and they’re all being funded by the deep Biden crime family state.

ShadowyZephyr avatar
ShadowyZephyris predicting YES at 24%

@NGK Haha the sad part is that I can't even tell if you're joking or not. Some people unironically believe this.

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwardsis predicting NO at 24%

@ShadowyZephyr I say that's the SCARY part!!

NGK avatar
NGKis predicting YES at 24%

@ShadowyZephyr SHOW ME HUNTER BIDEN’s THROBBING COCK

BrendanFinan avatar
Brendan Finanbought Ṁ25 of YES
BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwardsis predicting NO at 23%

@BrendanFinan rfk has 5.6 percent chance of winning dem nomination and 5 percent chance of winning general?! Name recognition breaks polls I guess?

ShadowyZephyr avatar
ShadowyZephyris predicting YES at 23%

@BTE More reason that Trump is higher.

BrendanFinan avatar
Brendan Finanis predicting YES at 20% (edited)

@BTE correct, EBO uses a lot of Brit prediction markets, which inaccurately trade well-known candidates like HRC and DJT higher

Hodor avatar
Hodor
MP avatar
MP

Does the BBC call foreign countries elections?

JoshuaB avatar
Joshuais predicting YES at 23%

@MP https://www.bbc.com/news/election/us2020/results seems like they might use some other source for this call, but it does look like they called the 2020 election for Biden

MP avatar
MP

@JoshuaB In the united states, calling an election has a very precise meaning. The outlets have decision desks where they call races. If the BBC only reports what other outlets call, this market may never be resolved.

Perhaps you should replace to as reported by the BBC

duck avatar
crystal ballis predicting NO at 23%

@MP Okay, I selected the BBC just because every one of the American media outlets has a „bias“. What I mean is when the BBC writes

„Trump wins election“.

MP avatar
MP

@duck I am quite certain that 10, Downey Street would allow the BBC to take sides in a controversial United States election

MP avatar
MP

@MP would not allow

ShakedKoplewitz avatar
Shaked Koplewitzbought Ṁ25 of YES

@MP downing street

ManifoldDream avatar

Will Donald Trump win the 2024 presidential election?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition

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