Will the majority of candidates elected to the U.S. House of Representatives in the November 2024 elections be Republicans or caucus with them? This isn't affected by any special elections that happen in 2024. It is also only about the candidates that are actually elected - if some of them die before inauguration or are otherwise prevented from taking office, this market will still resolve based on the election results.
It will resolve NO if either Democrats take back the House, or there are enough truly independent or third party candidates (i.e., those that will causus with neither party) elected for neither major party to have control.
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@Kraalnaxx Agreed, but you could have gotten much better odds by betting on this market instead
For some reason, that market has consistently had higher probability than this one, so I'm arbing them for a guaranteed profit.
@JosephNoonan Ok, nevermind, someone has made a market about this. I knew there had to be one I was missing somewhere.