Will Republicans maintain control of the House of Representatives in the 2024 elections?

Will the majority of candidates elected to the U.S. House of Representatives in the November 2024 elections be Republicans or caucus with them? This isn't affected by any special elections that happen in 2024. It is also only about the candidates that are actually elected - if some of them die before inauguration or are otherwise prevented from taking office, this market will still resolve based on the election results.

It will resolve NO if either Democrats take back the House, or there are enough truly independent or third party candidates (i.e., those that will causus with neither party) elected for neither major party to have control.

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bought Ṁ70 of NO

Would say odds have decreased since Speaker related chaos for Republicans

bought Ṁ5 of YES

@Kraalnaxx Agreed, but you could have gotten much better odds by betting on this market instead

For some reason, that market has consistently had higher probability than this one, so I'm arbing them for a guaranteed profit.

With all the markets about politics on Manifold, I am kind of shocked that no one has made one yet about which party will win the House.

@JosephNoonan Ok, nevermind, someone has made a market about this. I knew there had to be one I was missing somewhere.


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