Will there be a US government shutdown before the end of 2024?
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Dec 31
21%
chance

The last US government shutdown was between Dec 2018 and Jan 2019. There were also government shutdowns in 2018 and 2013. Will the US government shutdown by the end of 2024 for any amount of time?

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Made a time sensitive (but inversed, this is just the question with the Yglesias tag) version of the question, for the Yglesias prediction category (reasoning inside why it's not just a duplicate):

Does a partial shutdown (some agencies shut down and other do not) count?

bought Ṁ0 of YES

For arbitrage:

predicts NO

I have Buy Yes at 36% if anyone thinks we're mostly safe for the next year.

bought Ṁ10 YES at 34%
bought Ṁ10 of YES
bought Ṁ10 YES from 46% to 47%
bought Ṁ10 of YES

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