Maybe they'll do this sooner than later, to get Biden a good press cycle?

There's a polymarket on this now!

In an election year? I put the chance of that at less than 5 percent, and if it happens it's probably because someone in the administration wasn't paying attention and allowed it to go through. I'm genuinely confused as to why it's 50 percent, but I feel like with these returns I should go all-in on NO

@Ansel I think the same way

@Ansel Why not in an election year? My understanding is that weed legalization is pretty popular.

@BoltonBailey because it is pretty popular I doubt that Biden would get support from Republicans to score a major political victory just before the election. If this market would be about legalizing marijuana at the federal level I would bid it down to below 10%, but it is about removing it from Schedule I, which I believe doesn't require new legislation. Plus, Biden is not very keen on legalization (or even decriminalization) probably because of personal history, he could have gone all-in with that at the beginning of his administration.

@egroj Does Biden need Congress for this, I was under the impression it was entirely an executive branch thing.

@BoltonBailey yes, you are right, the Controlled Substances Act (CSA) of 1970, which classifies marijuana as a Schedule I substance, grants the Attorney General the power to reschedule or deschedule drugs (in coordination with the Secretary of Health and Human Services). I just don't see them moving it to medical application (Schedule II-V) because research has been not very conclusive on medical benefits, it's more likely that they would make an exception in CSA just like there are exceptions for alcohol and tobacco, and doing so would require legislation. It's more likely to see MDMA and psilocybin drop out of Schedule I sooner than marijuana IMO.

@egroj it seems like DEA thinks that they are the ones that have the last word regarding classification and they have always been very vocal against reclassifying marijuana: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/12/health/marijuana-fda-dea.html

@BoltonBailey It’s pretty popular on the left, but not really a huge priority compared to other issues. So if they go ahead and do it, it becomes a talking point for the right sth like “look what they’re spending their time on when we have all these other problems” . Seems like not much upside and potentially a lot of blowback. Little downside from not doing it. If it did happen I’d bet it would be during a lame duck period, but would it be a priority for Biden at that point?

This will happen eventually, but unlikely to happen (<50%) by the end of 2024. The process for this kind of thing is very long. The DEA needs to send out a proposal for new regulation, there is a lengthy comment period, they need to respond to comments, and there will be legal challenges which they need to resolve before it goes through.

Chat, is this real?

Very similar to /tjade273/will-marijuana-be-removed-from-sche