Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2025?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
Resolution criteria
This question will resolve Yes if, before January 1, 2025, marijuana is officially classified as something other than a schedule I drug in the US. If it is later reclassified as a schedule I drug, the question still resolves Yes.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
Related questions
Biden might eventually promise to make this happen, but it would still be <50% likely to happen this year.
@HankyUSA I bet this up to almost double what itβs at on Metaculus and left a 10k YES order @50% if you want more shares
@june Cool. Thanks. What makes you believe this is more likely than not to happen this year?
@HankyUSA I throw mana around here and there, betting on this or that π€·ββοΈ
polymarket up to 75%:
https://polymarket.com/event/will-weed-be-rescheduled-in-2024?tid=1709919606067
@benshindel I think Biden is pretty clearly floating the idea publicly right now to gauge the response before pulling the trigger. It seems like a low downside, high potential for upside risk to take since if he hasn't pulled ahead of Trump in the next couple months. The public is overwhelmingly pro-legalization.
@benshindel "Keep building public trust, as Iβve been doing by taking executive action on police reform, and calling for it to be the law of the land, directing my Cabinet to review the federal classification of marijuana, and expunging thousands of convictions for mere possession, because no one should be jailed for using or possessing marijuana!" President Biden SOTU 2024.
@Joshua no word yesterday on the State of the Union, very unlikely. They are going to focus on Ukraine, immigration, taxes and abortion
@egroj it would have been a bad time to announce it actually in my opinion, so this doesn't move me much.
In an election year? I put the chance of that at less than 5 percent, and if it happens it's probably because someone in the administration wasn't paying attention and allowed it to go through. I'm genuinely confused as to why it's 50 percent, but I feel like with these returns I should go all-in on NO
@Ansel Why not in an election year? My understanding is that weed legalization is pretty popular.
@BoltonBailey because it is pretty popular I doubt that Biden would get support from Republicans to score a major political victory just before the election. If this market would be about legalizing marijuana at the federal level I would bid it down to below 10%, but it is about removing it from Schedule I, which I believe doesn't require new legislation. Plus, Biden is not very keen on legalization (or even decriminalization) probably because of personal history, he could have gone all-in with that at the beginning of his administration.
@egroj Does Biden need Congress for this, I was under the impression it was entirely an executive branch thing.
@BoltonBailey yes, you are right, the Controlled Substances Act (CSA) of 1970, which classifies marijuana as a Schedule I substance, grants the Attorney General the power to reschedule or deschedule drugs (in coordination with the Secretary of Health and Human Services). I just don't see them moving it to medical application (Schedule II-V) because research has been not very conclusive on medical benefits, it's more likely that they would make an exception in CSA just like there are exceptions for alcohol and tobacco, and doing so would require legislation. It's more likely to see MDMA and psilocybin drop out of Schedule I sooner than marijuana IMO.
@egroj it seems like DEA thinks that they are the ones that have the last word regarding classification and they have always been very vocal against reclassifying marijuana: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/12/health/marijuana-fda-dea.html
@BoltonBailey Itβs pretty popular on the left, but not really a huge priority compared to other issues. So if they go ahead and do it, it becomes a talking point for the right sth like βlook what theyβre spending their time on when we have all these other problemsβ . Seems like not much upside and potentially a lot of blowback. Little downside from not doing it. If it did happen Iβd bet it would be during a lame duck period, but would it be a priority for Biden at that point?