[ACX 2024] Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024?
79
227
Ṁ7.4KṀ1.1K
2025
6%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if, in calendar year 2024, credible sources report that there have been 10 or more deaths among the overtly flagged members of the armed forces of China or Taiwan caused by confrontation with the armed forces of the other nation. This includes accidents, such as vehicle collisions.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
Get Ṁ200 play money
More related questions
Related questions
Will there be a clash between Taiwanese and Chinese Coast Guard ships in the waters around Kinmen in 2024?
35% chance
Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2025?
25% chance
Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2029?
61% chance
Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2027?
41% chance
Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2030?
31% chance
Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2035?
62% chance
Will a Taiwanese, US, Filipino, Japanese or Vietnamese servicemember die confronting the China's military before 2025?
33% chance
Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2040?
72% chance
Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2028?
44% chance
Will China launch a full-scale military invasion of Taiwan in 2024?
8% chance