[ACX 2024] Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024?

Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.

Resolution criteria

This question will resolve as Yes if the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on December 31, 2024 is higher than that on December 29, 2023.

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The the Iran tensions add some risk:

bought Ṁ100 NO

For all us ETF investors I've made this market:

Made a time sensitive version of the question, for the Yglesias prediction category (reasoning inside why it's not just a duplicate):

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