Will a debate be held between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before the 2024 US presidential election? [ACX 2024]
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Nov 6
89%
chance

Will a debate be held between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before the 2024 US presidential election?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.


Resolution criteria

This question will resolve as Yes if, before November 5, 2024, Joe Biden and Donald Trump participate in a live debate for presidential candidates, including a virtual debate.

Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.


Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.

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opened aṀ1,000 NO at 89% order

@TimothyBandors Are you betting NO based on the NY Post?

I feel like this reporting leaves a lot to be desired, personally.

@Joshua They were a lot closer to neck n neck when they mentioned debating. I just can't see those two working out an agreement, and trump is less inclined to debate while ahead as seen in the primary.

https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1790755280378102108
"TRUMP SAYS HE WILL ACCEPT CNN DEBATE INVITATION FOR JUNE 27: FOX"

https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1790747680173363660

"I’ve received and accepted an invitation from CNN

for a debate on June 27th. Over to you, Donald. As you said: anywhere, any time, any place."

opened a Ṁ3,000 YES at 80% order

Predictably, Biden has called Trump’s bluff and the likely result is now “Debate is rigged” “Debate is fake unless moderated by beautiful Lana Trump” “No one has ever been treated so unfairly as proposed debate” “Unfair witch hunt now demanding debate” “DeMOCRAT deBATE” “I won’t debate sleepy old man” but no actual debate.

@ClubmasterTransparent tell me with a straight face that u aren't cosmic cookie

bought Ṁ500 NO

Idc what he said to Howerd Stern, the DNC would never allow this debate

Yeah, I don't think either candidate wants to debate, for different reasons. But they both want to APPEAR like they want to debate. Expecting lots of drama about whose fault it is when the debate doesn't happen.

@axf3606 "YOU STOLE THE ELECTION, JOE!" Noooo waaaay this is allowed to happen.

@axf3606 I'm all in on no for the same reason.

@TimothyBandors Why not?

Totally serious. Not a partisan argument, just Toastmasters 101. What happens next if Trump yells “YOU STOLE THE ELECTION JOE”? Is that what you would do in Trumps shoes? Will this have good outcome? Will a single person who was not sure about it now decide to support Trump? Will he stop there and not lose control?

Biden isn't going to throw a million felony convictions at Trump ony to get up on a stage and have Trump shouting "Biden crime family" at him for two hours. Not happening.

when will they debate?

bought Ṁ50 NO

Unless RFK's polling numbers decline, there will be no debates this year.

Biden already didn't want to give Trump a platform to turn things into a circus, like he did last time when he exposed Biden to COVID-19 and constantly interrupted him. Now that RFK is eligible for the debates, they should both fear him taking the lead like Perot did.

@SteveSokolowski Counterargument: Biden (or Trump if RFK starts getting more left-wing support) will very much want to give RFK a platform, in order to take votes away from the other side. There's precedent for this kind of thing: In 1980, independent candidate Anderson was polling 20%, and Carter (concerned that Anderson would take votes away from him) refused to participate in any debate Anderson was present in. Reagan, however, did debate him. Reagan did very well in the debate, and Anderson's numbers dropped from there, but still probably helped Reagan's landslide victory (winning 44 states) over Carter.

Trump presumably also knows that staying out of the debate entirely would have an even worse outcome than participating.

bought Ṁ40 YES from 68% to 69%

Identical market, if anyone wants to run arbitrage:

reposted

For anyone who hasn't seen, this is spiking because Trump just posted that he wants to debate Biden "anytime, anywhere". I've added this question to the new 2024 Debates Dashboard.

Dates and places for the 2024 debates were already announced by the Commission on Presidential Debates in November 2023, so it seems now that it's just a matter of whether the two candidates will actually agree to participate. There have also been debates in every election since 1976 according to English Wikipedia so an exception this year seems also unlikely.

bought Ṁ100 of NO

Trump didn't debate in the primary and he won it why would he do one in the general when it would hurt him. The question is will Joe Biden debate himself.

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